Real Madrid want €100m, but who's buying?

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A unique situation at Real Madrid could lead to a pretty interesting transfer saga this summer. It’s not every year that a prime age attacker in decent form wants to leave the Bernabeu, or that Madrid is willing to cash in. But according to MARCA, that could be what’s happening with Rodrygo.

A couple years ago, Rodrygo appeared to be taking a leap towards the upper echelon of attackers in world football. But the arrivals of Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe have shifted him into a more supporting role, and it appears he might have fallen behind Arda Guler in the pecking order over the last month as well.

Rodrygo has been an elite dribbler and OK shooter in both La Liga and the Champions League, though there’s a pretty significant disparity between his playmaking in the two competitions. He simply hasn’t set up a lot of big chances for teammates in the Champions League.

His shot map reflects that he is regularly asked to change his position to the benefit of his teammates and the overall tactics. When Carlo Ancelotti is trying to put Mbappe, Bellingham and Vini Jr. in positions to succeed, Rodrygo is generally the player who has to play a role he doesn’t love or shift to the bench. This is ultimately not the kind of shooting production you want to see from a star attacker on Real Madrid.

I was surprised to see that his key pass locations aren’t looking too hot either. 2.76 xG assisted in the minutes he’s played isn’t terrible, but there’s a really low volume of key passes into the box or extremely high xG chances set up here.

Potential suitors will point at these numbers and Real Madrid’s glut of attacking talent to try to pick up Rodrygo at a cut price. Reporters in Spain are putting his asking price at €100m, which is probably what Real Madrid should say to start a negotiation, but they won’t be getting that much and they know it.

While Rodrygo has played most of his career on the right wing, I think that’s mostly been in service of other players, and a new team could get more out of his dribbling skills by playing him on the left and asking him to cut inside more often. Manchester City and Chelsea should definitely be in the market for a player with his skillset this summer, and Liverpool could be too if they find a decent market for Luis Diaz.

But this is not a move I expect to be resolved quickly. All the elements are present for a long transfer saga. Rodrygo is clearly a good enough player to improve rich Premier League teams, and is in his early prime age. Because of this, Real Madrid aren’t going to fold easily on their demands for price, and teams that rate him won’t want to walk away from the deal. But because his numbers are down a bit this year and teams know Madrid would like to sell, they’re going to haggle over the price.

My prediction is that you’ll still be hearing about this one come mid-August. —KM

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More transfer rumours

• Trent Alexander-Arnold has finally announced what everyone has suspected for a few months, that he’ll be leaving Liverpool. Right back has been a weak spot for Real Madrid since Dani Carvajal’s injury, so they’re about to get a whole lot better.

• After making a lot of money off Jhon Duran and getting their money back for Moussa Diaby, Aston Villa would like to repeat their successes in selling to Saudi Arabia by cashing in on Emi Martinez and Leon Bailey. If those players both want the move and Villa can fund a squad overhaul by fetching top dollar (top pound?) for those two, they’ll be thrilled.

• Arsenal and PSG are supposedly both interested in signing Roma center back Evan N’Dicka, a left footer who’s good with the ball at his feet and average in the air. I find it unlikely that the Gunners will commit significant resources to Slightly Worse Riccardo Calafiori when they’ve already got Riccardo Calafiori.

• You will be stunned to learn that Christopher Nkunku would like to leave Chelsea. They’ll need a fee of somewhere in the £30-35m range to not show a negative for PSR. I feel like any suitors might want to try before they buy at that price given his poor season, and I expect he’ll move on a loan with some kind of obligatory purchase trigger.

• Everton would like to bring Richarlison home from Tottenham, which seems ill-advised. Not that I dislike Richarlison — he’s actually been very good for Spurs in limited minutes this year — but the Toffees should be trying to build up a good foundation of early prime-age players after years of underinvestment, not chasing nostalgia by signing injury plagued old favorites.

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