Remain calm, all is well: A Premier League recap

Arsenal and Liverpool fans are having a bad time, but it's going to be fine.

Author

Ted Knutson
January 26, 2026

Variance Betting weekend...

3-0 on Premier League bets this weekend (special thanks to West Ham, Bournemouth, and grinds teeth Manchester United).

2-1-2 on Championship bets (one still to play on Monday).

So +4 after a -1 midweek round last week. We are still cooking.

Plus there is a Yooge CL kickoff on Wednesday. Yooge. I cannot wait.

If you want to follow our analysis and learn how to become a smarter bettor, subscribe here.

Football was indeed played this weekend and a lot of it was pretty good? It’s been too long, so we’re going Goal Roundup and Game Analysis style because the rest of the week is going to be frothy with transfers.

I dubbed Aston Villa ‘Bangers FC’ on the pod earlier this season, but Manchester United have thrown their hat into the ring for that title. (But not like, the actual Title, because although they have been very good since the start of December, that remains a bridge too far at this stage in the season.)

‘1-nil to the Arsenal’ was the cry from the home fans as Arsenal went ahead in the 29th off a Saka-Odegaard combination that ended up in a Lisandro Martinez own goal, and this looked to be another easy victory over Man United for the Gunners.

Then shit happened.

Zubimendi had a horrible giveaway at the back straight to Bryan Mbuemo and it was fairly quickly 1-1. Zubi was off-balance and didn’t control the pass (while the outside was clearly open), and what should have been a quick pass back to Raya ended up in an equaliser. A high press can still pay dividends in this league, even against the best teams.

Then Patrick Dorgu absolutely walloped it into the corner on a volley to make it 1-2 United on the other side of half time, and an already nervy Emirates was stunned.

Mikel Merino made it 2-2 Arsenal, bundling home a bit of corner chaos, but that only lasted three minutes until Mateus Cunha scored his second goal from outside the box this season to give Man United the away win.

Process wise, the Gunners held United to .88 expected goals and they scored 3. Shit happens, and given the shots, the Gunners would walk out with a win 57% of the time. But Arsenal made mistakes frequently here, and the fanbase is definitely as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

Gunners fans are definitely Not Okay.

The Actual Bangers FC ™️would like you to know that not only are they still here, but they did, in fact, also score a banger this weekend. As is obvious from the scoreline, Newcastle did not.

This game opened with the most insane kick save (and a beauty) from Emi Martinez, who seemed to have a down year last year and has been out of his MIND this season. He’s the lead supplier for the GK section of Highlight Reels R’ Us. (Roefs is probably second.)

On the whole, Newcastle put up over 2xG against Villa’s defense, but Buendia put away a 3% chance to open the scoring in the 19th minute and the home side was chasing ever after. What’s interesting is Villa scored in the middle of a 35-minute period where they had 8 shots to Newcastle’s zero. In typical Villa style, they then battened down the hatches and withstood the coming storm, but Newcastle’s wayward finishing made that easy.

Yes, it was 2xG to 1.3, but it was 4 shots on target to 9 in Villa’s favour. Ollie Watkins put away a cross on the second phase of a corner in the 88th to stick a fork in the Magpies.

There is probably something to the idea that Newcastle can’t seem to win without Bruno — thin squad remains thin.

Liverpool fans were melting down a bit, but this was their first loss in fourteen matches, so it’s not all THAT bad, right? [For those who want my direct Liverpool musings, check out the 100th episode of Distance Covered by Josh Williams, recorded on Friday.]

The first goal for Bournemouth comes off a great ball from Senesi and a catastrofuck from Liverpool’s defense. Van Dijk gives up on the ball, and Bournemouth somehow get 2v1 inside the penalty box when Alex Scott saves it and pulls it back for Evanilson because… everyone else in defense fell asleep? Is that the coach’s fault? Cracking start for the Cherries though.

Alex Jimenez slotted home the second on a vertical ball where Kerkez was beaten, and van Dijk narrowly played him onside to make it 2-0. Not a good day at the office for the giant Dutchman.

BUT… Big Virg got one back himself on a fantastic angled header on a corner and at halftime it was 2-1.

It stayed that way until the 80th minute where Szoboszlai scorched a freekick in off the post and suddenly it was 2-2 and things were tense.

Weirdly (?) Bournemouth were the ones who looked more interested in winning things toward the end with three very good chances in the closing minutes (Liverpool also had one that Petrovic just tipped wide). An angled chance from Amine Adli off a LONG THROW was wot did it, and LFC walked out losers for the first time in a couple of months.

A decade ago a Bournemouth analyst used to argue with me about set pieces, long throws, and whether teams could actually teach players to do them and execute them well in the Premier League. I think that guy not only kept his job, but seems to have adopted as much good stuff from our playbook as he could get his hands on.

Adapt or die!

If you follow Variance Betting, you know I swore off betting on Palace because they have not won an actual match of competitive football since away at Fulham on the 7th of December. (You can debate whether the Shelbourne match counts with someone else.)

So in that way, this was less a surprise and more a foregone conclusion.

The Estevao goal was insane. Partly because it came from Palace being in possession and then immediately lead to a solo fast break, which you rarely see these days. But it was mostly insane because of the combination of speed, strength to hold off the defender, finishing power, and OMGHE’SSTILL18ness of it all. In all of their buying and selling, Chelsea look to have spiked at least one worldie.

Estevao also got a chipped throughball assist for Joao Pedro, who seemingly had a minute of free time to hang out in the box, smoke a cigarette, and pick his finish, choosing to blast it through the goalkeeper as opposed to the much more commonly-used “around” finishing choices. Wharton’s “defending” on this one was embarrassing and fairly inexcuseable, but part and parcel of a horrible day at the office for him. He might look totally at home if a move to Liverpool goes through.

Chelsea’s third came on an Enzo penalty, while the Palace goal came late on a pinball corner eventually nodded home by Chris Richards.

CPYTU (Crystal Palace YouTube Update): I have been poking fun at the Palace YT account for two seasons now because they are weird and love long intros even when matches have an insane amount of action that they have to fit into a 3-minute package, but then things got sad this season because it sort of looked like they were overworked and didn’t have enough time to do decent highlight packages after matches.

As noted, they haven’t won in A While, which means I hadn’t clicked on their page because I typically only post the winning team’s YT package.

ANYWAY… curious about the state of things in Croydon, I checked on the highlights from yesterday and yep, 13 seconds of walking out intro, 15 seconds of outro, 2 minutes of action in a 4-goal game. Never change, you weird, underfunded YT admin.

City got an early goal from Marmoush, a second at the midway point from Semenyo, and ground out a win against the league’s worst team.

This was a success.

Any match City keep a clean sheet — against any opponent — is a success right now.

Forest fans get grumpy with us because we have not shown them enough love in the newsletter. This usually happens to most teams who are in or near the cellar of the league, as there is only so much energy to expend each week, and people like to read about teams that are good and not pants.

Forest have mostly been pants. Brentford have not.

However, I have a decade-long bit going about The Warlock Sean Dyche and the Fightin’ Sean Dyches, so when the Dyches walk into the GTech Fortress to face Matthew Benham’s Mighty Bees and also walk back out victorious… we notice.

Well done, Forest. You are pleasantly regressing to your very average metrics mean (but also, your metrics are trending down slightly, which might be a concern). You probably only win this one 15% of the time ( two goals on six shots!), but league table don’t lie, right?

[Note: The Igor Jesus goal in this is definitely worth the click.]

There was a period of time where I was worried Fabian Hurzeler would prove me wrong, and march Brighton directly up the table after I had stated Brighton should probably move on from the young head coach.

I am no longer particularly worried. Brighton are a midtable team, as are Fulham, and their opponents here are now four points above them. It’s a tough league, but nothing about Brighton suggests they are ready to compete for Europe beyond the general quality of the squad.

They did open the scoring with a frickin’ laser beam by Yasin Ayari. He got a loose ball out wide, wiggled into the area, and blasted it near post past the keeper. Hit The Ball Real Hard is still a good strategy in this league, provided it’s on target.

Fulham’s equalizer was a bit of simple absurdity. A pass from Joachim Andersen standing just outside his own penalty area landed perfectly in front of Samuel Chukwueze, who meep-meeped onto the ball, took a touch, and placed the ball neatly into the far corner from an angle. Gorgeous football, if slightly uncommon in the modern Premier League, and it was 1-1 at the Cottage.

Villa might be Bangers FC, but Harry Wilson is the Bangers MC. Wilson now has 8 goals this season, none of which came from closer than 15 yards.

His goal from a stoppage time direct free kick gave Fulham all three points. Fulham actually screened this for him (they have not been great about set pieces in recent seasons), which probably allowed it to sneak past the GK and give them the win.

West Ham had this wrapped up before half time, which was… weird, but worked out well for those of us who bet on them. The first goal was a chipped cross from Bowen for a Crysensio Summerville header. Okay, unusual.

The second goal was a very dumb penalty converted by Bowen. Not quite what we expect from Sunderland this season.

And the third was a Mateus Fernandes goal from Way Downtown to put the Hammers well in the clear and coasting home.

Sunderland did score a consolation goal from a thumping header by Hayden van Brewer-favourite Brian Brobbey, but that was it. They were bad and deserved to lose.

Speaking of bad and deserve to lose…

—TK

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