As noted last week, we are in twice-weekly digest mode as our staff grabs some much-needed holiday time and we put in extra work on our English Premier League previews. Because we are not daily right now, there is officially A Lot to catch up on.
We discussed Vinicius Jr, Bradley Barcola, and Yan Diomande in detail on Monday’s podcast (plus bits and bobs on Tzsolis, Tchouameni to Man United and more).
Vinicius Jr. and Money
Over the weekend, the very well-sourced Vini to Arsenal rumour took on real life when David Ornstein reported that all levels of Arsenal hierarchy had agreed to try and make the deal happen. This kicked off a flurry of speculation and excitement from Arsenal fans (and transfer fans in general) because of how unexpected it was, and also how unusual poaching a great player from Real Madrid to England would be.
Vinicius Jr. is one of the world’s best left wide forwards. Depending on how you view his output across the past four years, he’s probably in the top 5 players at his position in the whole world, and it is extremely rare that Arsenal poach a player of his calibre out of anywhere, really, but especially Spain.
HOWEVER… as you have read here many times, it’s extremely rare good players choose to leave Real Madrid at all. So that’s strike one in any potential deal. And it’s also incredibly unlikely a fee plus wage package can be concocted that makes sense to all parties involved. That’s strike two.
As such, I think this is just a negotiating stance from Vini’s representatives. He doesn’t want to leave, and if he did, he’s very likely to wait for his contract to expire next year so he can claim most of a potential transfer fee for himself. Even with Ornstein reporting, none of this quite adds up.
To better explain what I mean, let’s dig into the numbers…
Assume Vini makes £300-400k a week at Real Madrid right now. His representatives are looking to boost this by 50ish percent or more, up to £500k. Depending on who you listen to, that wage would make him the best paid player in the Premier League, even ahead of Erling Haaland. Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, and Mbappe are likely the only players who have been above that wage in recent times.
Bukayo Saka is rumoured as the best paid player on Arsenal and makes about £300k a week or £15M a year before performance bonuses (which can be significant in a season like the last one). If Vini’s reps get their way, it would be a HUGE upgrade in top salary for Arsenal, which would in turn destabilise their wage bill across future incomings and player renewals. They won a bunch of prize money last season, but even if Arsenal might be able to afford it, the gap between 15M and 25M a season is large.
Comparing a Vini deal with wages to a Barcola deal or Diomande deal in the same way might look like this:
Barcola All-In = £100M + 15M*5 for 75M = £175M
Diomande All-In = £90M 12M*5 for 60M = £150M
Vini Jr All-In = 50-100M + 25M*5 for 125M = £175-225M
Add to that the fact that Vini is 26 right now and the later years of his contract will likely feature lower levels of performance and the fact that if he waits a year, he probably gets 50-75% of his transfer fee as a signing bonus, and it’s hard for me to see this happening. Vini is very good and would improve Arsenal’s attack by a ton, but also, money and contract liabilities are real things to pretty much all Premier League clubs except Chelsea.
Brentford are supposedly close to signing Mamadou Sangare of Lens for €48M. That would be an extremely exciting midfielder for the Bees at a price that is pretty mindblowing to contemplate given how they have operated their entire history. We definitely hope this one happens.
The Times reported PSG want £145M for Bradley Barcola over the weekend, which feels, you know, wildly optimistic. But it’s also a potential starting price for a player that wants to move and seems fairly clearly for sale. Liverpool have allegedly agreed personal terms and lodged an initial bid with the club, but finding a transfer valuation that actually works seems like a huge challenge.
“Chelsea will demand a significant fee for Portugal winger Pedro Neto, 26, amid interest from Liverpool, Manchester City and Saudi Arabian teams” reports the Mail. This one has “extremely agent-led market testing” written all over it.
James Trafford appears to be moving to Leeds. Trafford’s move back to City last summer was a business move, where City knew they could exercise their buyback and make a profit selling him on a year later, even if they didn’t play Trafford in goal. Hence, the you know, selling him to Leeds now. Thankfully, the shift to Leeds this summer looks very football-shaped, which is good, because he’s been far too good a shot stopper to ride the bench somewhere.
Joshua Zirkzee has now entered the “go on season-long loans back to Italy until your contract runs out” phase of his Manchester United experience. We very much bloody told you so two years ago.
Sunderland are closing in on Toulouse left back Dayann Methalie, aged 20. This one I am skeptical on, as he seems to need a lot of further development before he’ll be ready for the Premier League. I do think Sunderland’s recent recruitment has been solid, so I guess fans should be cautiously optimistic?
Everton are supposedly demanding £70M for Iliman Ndiaye, with interest coming from Man United and Saudi Arabia. I like him, but given the age profile and performance output, I’d be willing to cash in at £60+ if I were Everton.
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