Saying goodbye to Luka Modric in absolute gut-punching fashion

I’m very sorry that we have to discuss VAR at all, but a thing happened.

Spain comfortably dispatch of Austria

Pre-tournament favourites Spain entered the knockouts on the back of a somewhat unconvincing group stage. They had comfortably finished first without even conceding a goal, but the shock draw with Cabo Verde and narrow win over Uruguay raised some doubts about their ability to go the distance in the knockouts.

Sceptics may still reserve questions about how Luis de la Fuente’s side will fare against equally strong opposition, but for the moment, they can take a lot of confidence from a much more characteristic performance in an emphatic win over Austria. They outshot their opponents 23-5 and had an even bigger margin on xG (2.84-0.32), leaving the result never in doubt.

Much like their fellow favourites have done in the Round of 32, Spain took their time to warm up. They gradually grew some more possession and territory, but had a 20-plus minute period in which they didn’t register a single attempt. They flicked the switch after a meatwall corner goal was denied around the half-hour mark, repeatedly knocking on the door and quickly bursting it open through Mikel Oyarzabal’s smart finish on Marc Cucurella’s overlap and assist.

Austria didn’t seem to have much in their arsenal to hurt Spain. They did get into some potentially promising counterattacking situations after turning the ball over inside their own half, but lacked the speed up front to make anything of them. As they stepped up to press more in the second half, they left themselves more exposed to incisive Spanish attacks.

La Roja strung together some nice moves as they played out on the left, went forward quicker by seeking Oyarzabal’s feet or looked to release Lamine Yamal in space on the right. Their inevitable second came in the 66th minute with Pedro Porro heading home Álex Baena’s delivery. That sealed the result for all intents and purposes, but Oyarzabal added a cherry on top late on, capping off a well-rounded performance on a personal level as well.

We should get a better idea of how Spain’s defence will hold up against tougher opponents in the Round of 16 (though the degree to which they will be tested will depend on Roberto Martínez’s team selection). Either way, La Roja will be tough to hurt if they can control games with possession as well as they did after taking charge of this one. —NS

Portugal squeak through and sadly we can’t avoid RefChat

Through the first half, this looked like it was shaping up to be an extremely dull match, perhaps a 0-0 draw all the way to penalties. But after Ivan Perisic found the back of the net from close range in the 53rd minute, things started to get spicy.

Cristiano Ronaldo struggled up top again, managing zero shots from open play, and one poorly-taken free kick directly into the wall from 30 yards out. But he was on the pitch when Portugal won a penalty by drawing a foul on a set piece, and he converted from the spot.

The winner was a sensational one, though Croatia won’t be thrilled with their marking. Rafael Leao provided the assist with a lofted cross, and Goncalo Ramos — who had replaced Ronaldo in the 81st minute — inexplicably beat a much larger center back to the header.

Croatia thought they had a dramatic stoppage time equalizer, but it was disallowed for offside.

Ronaldo discourse is sure to fire back up after his poor performance, followed by Ramos scoring the winner off the bench. I’m not sure how Roberto Martinez can deny the truth any longer, but obviously it takes some serious adult gonads to bench Portugal’s all-time leading scorer.

And now, the elephant in the room. Talking about referees and VAR is the most boring thing on the planet, but they defined the big moments of this game, and it would be disingenuous to just pretend that didn’t happen.

Portugal was struggling to create much of anything before they won a penalty after a VAR review, and Croatia had a late equalizer chalked off for the narrowest of offside calls. Ultimately, they were both the correct calls. Croatia probably committed several fouls on the set piece where they won their penalty, and the ref only had to pick out one. We had definitive evidence that Igor Matanovic got his head to the ball and flicked it to an offside player on the disallowed equalizer. But that didn’t stop Croatia fans from feeling like… uhh… this.

This very well could have been the final competitive match in the career of Luka Modric. The 40-year-old has not yet announced his plans for next season or lack thereof, but a World Cup where he reached 200 caps for his country feels like an appropriate place to bow out. If this was it, it’s been an incredible privilege to watch him.

We now get an Iberian derby, which could be spicy or nothing at all. With Ronaldo starting the game, I suspect Spain will have absolutely no problem controlling the match. If a more mobile Ramos is up top, we could be in for an all-time classic. —KM

Swiss aim Manzambi right at Algeria's weak point in confident win

Mohamed wrote about Johan Manzambi a couple of months ago, and part of that piece was that the Freiburg man's long-term positional future was not entirely clear. Manzambi is capable of doing so many things at a really high level, and is often trying to do them, so you could place him into different roles in different systems. The problem isn't the classic "jack of all trades, master of none," but rather one of there being too many possibilities.

Manzambi isn't offering a ton of bite out of possession yet, and if his future is that of a box-to-box midfielder, he'll have to improve there. Switzerland have to win matches now, though, and his skillset is one that can ruin the plans of even a well-drilled unit. In Switzerland's last two matches, Murat Yakin has started Manzambi as a roving 10, freeing the 20-year-old to be the carry threat he is while covering for his risk-taking by stationing Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler in a double pivot underneath him.

Simple fix, but is it working?

Often popping up in the left half-space or peeling out to the touchline, Manzambi's influence was amplified by the fact that Rubén Vargas and Ricardo Rodríguez were ready to aid and abet an overload to that flank. The Swiss left was up against the Algerian right, where Riyad Mahrez was more or less camped out in the space we talked about earlier in the tournament. That's been the plan all along for Algeria, letting Mahrez cook as a more or less stationary playmaker, but the price for that is how he's just not going to contribute much in terms of ground coverage.

This dynamic might have influenced Vladimir Petković starting without a true striker, with Ibrahim Maza the nominal center forward from the start. A fourth different midfield trio in four games was brought in underneath, with Ramiz Zerrouki and Nabil Bentaleb in particular putting in work to help cover the spaces that Mahrez didn't.

It was a calculated risk, but in the face of Switzerland's ability to create overloads to that side, it wasn't enough. The first half saw Algeria post a -0.75 xGD split despite hoarding possession. In a moment that perfectly summarized Algeria's problems on the night, Dan Ndoye fired home a second goal for the Swiss the instant the U.S. broadcast had concluded a note that Ibrahim Maza had been held to just 24 touches.

Algeria were utterly demoralized, and essentially folded from there. Mahrez had one 0.17 xG chance at an instant reply, but that was almost literally all the Fennec Foxes had to offer. With their World Cup hanging in the balance, they took just two more shots for a whopping 0.09 xG. Big oof for them, but a big step for Switzerland in weaponizing a young star while shoring things up at the back. —JA

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