Step 1: Sell best player. Step 2: Never lose again?

Bournemouth lost to Arsenal on January 4, and they haven’t lost a game since. The Cherries have ripped off 13 unbeaten, despite selling their top performing player from the first half of the season, Antoine Semenyo. And despite what outgoing manager Andoni Iraola is known for, they’ve done it in a surprising way: By pressing less.

But before we get to that, let’s start with the attack. Bournemouth are getting higher quality shots than they were before this unbeaten streak started, but not by a ridiculous degree. Also somewhat surprisingly, they’re doing this while getting quite a bit less set piece xG.

While he was bought effectively as a “Semenyo replacement,” Rayan hasn’t played on the same side of the pitch, or really the same role at all. He’s not been a goal-scorer for the Cherries, and instead much more of a playmaker. Most of his shots are of the poor, super long range variety, but he’s doing an incredible job setting up his teammates.

Instead of replacing Semenyo, Rayan has actually replaced the minutes of David Brooks, who’s seen his role greatly reduced since this winning streak started. Brooks did not do a ton of playmaking and was much more of a shot volume kind of wide player, to very limited effect.

Brooks’ only goal this season came on a tap-in, and he’s been extremely ineffective otherwise. That’s a lot of blocked shots, a very low number of shots on target, and a strange number of headers for a man who’s 5’8”.

Semenyo’s minutes on the left wing have mostly been replaced by Marcus Tavernier, who did play plenty in the first half of the season. He was just mostly playing as a No. 10. But he’s getting a lot more of his minutes on the left wing now, and he’s getting a ton of added shot volume and quality out of coming off the wing.

And then there’s Eli Junior Kroupi, who’s also playing more minutes. Mostly in that No. 10 spot inside of Tavernier, though they do quite a bit of interchanging. Kroupi is also a shot monster, and always has been.

There’s no reason to do the before and after comp with him; Kroupi looks the same across the season on a per 90 basis. He’s just playing more. This is a pure goal-poaching striker, but playing from a deeper starting role, and it’s awesome.

While those personnel changes have helped Bournemouth, the bigger fundamental shift has been in how they defend. Iraola has been linked to big jobs because of how well he’s gotten a mid-budget team to press, but Bournemouth have turned their season around by not pressing.

Bournemouth are taking defensive actions on average 4 meters closer to their own goal than they were before the unbeaten streak started, and their PPDA (opponent passes per defensive action) has gone up significantly.

The result of this stylistic shift has been better defensive performances from fullbacks and defensive midfielders who were perhaps not well-suited to a style that forced them to defend in a lot of space.

Alejandro Jimenez doesn’t have as many decisive defensive actions as he used to, but he’s also not getting beat as much. Adrien Truffert has improved in both tackling percentage and defensive action OBV.

But the biggest jump in output since this shift has been Alex Scott, who’s turning in a breakout campaign. He’s been put in a tough spot this season by having to play with 3 different midfield partners due to injuries, and he’s handled it well by becoming the rock in the center for Bournemouth.

Now that Scott is in a team with a more settled defensive shape instead of going to an athletics meet, he’s one of the most productive midfielders in the Premier League.

As a side note, this is very much a “buyer beware” situation for rich teams who want to defend higher up the pitch considering a big bid, and why I think Bournemouth would be very much willing to negotiate should they receive an offer. But I don’t want to take anything away from Scott’s performances, he’s been excellent and his improvement over the second half of the season has been a huge factor in their success.

And of course, we can’t conclude this newsletter without mentioning Marcos Senesi, whose outstanding campaign is covered in more detail here.

Bournemouth are one of about 8 teams still fighting for the final European places, and their schedule looks pretty favorable. They have Leeds at home on the day this newsletter goes out, followed by matches against Crystal Palace, Fulham, Manchester City, and Nottingham Forest. There’s one likely loss in there, but the others are about the best you could hope for.

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