The striker market went insane

This summer’s transfer market has felt a touch cooler than last year’s. Not cold, but you know, a hot sunny day instead of a sauna. Teams showing a little tiny piece, just a crumb, of restraint. And then a few of them realized that they needed guys to put the ball in the back of the net.

Striker is the one position that coaches and directors of football seem unwilling or unable to find value solutions for. If you have ambitions to improve on your prior year league finish and you don’t have a player who scores a lot of goals, you better open the chequebook. And in the last couple days, the striker market has gone nuts.

We’ve previously covered the rumoured Victor Osimhen-Romelu Lukaku swap meet, which was always a bit of a fantasy. But Gianluca di Marzio is reporting that Napoli is willing to close a €30m deal for Lukaku — a 31-year-old on high wages! — without a guarantee that they can sell Osimhen. PSG hasn’t agreed to a fee with Napoli for Osimhen yet, but has apparently agreed personal terms to pay him a hefty €14m salary if they can close the deal.

Meanwhile, West Ham is out here spending £27m to acquire 31-year-old strikers too, and they handed Niclas Füllkrug a 4-year contract. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: He’s a solid player, but the back end of that is going to hurt. West Ham fans will be mocking the data nerds if he has a good season, and I’ll come back for the “I told you so” when he’s a ball and chain in 2026.

But we’re still in the realm of normal transfers with those. Lukaku and Füllkrug are too pricey for their age, but not “wreck your club’s finances” pricey. Osimhen is probably too expensive, but at least consistently one of the best strikers in Serie A, and a prime age player. Let’s get into the really risky bets that have been rumoured.

Basically every reputable journalist that reports on transfers says that Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke is currently Tottenham Hotspur’s top target. He had a very good campaign, scoring 17 non-penalty goals from 15.97 xG, and had 30% of his team’s total xG. He’s also a solid presser, and extremely durable, having appeared in all 38 league games.

Solanke struggled in his previous season, scoring just 6 goals, but had a dominant 2021-22 in the Championship. The asking price for this player who’s had one good Premier League season, and is about to turn 27? Just £65m!

Tottenham aren’t exactly broke after selling Harry Kane to Bayern Munich, but £65m is a huge bet for them to make on a player who is unlikely to have significant resale value unless he exceeds his Bournemouth performances. And that’s a huge bet to make on Solanke.

But Solanke isn’t even the most expensive striker who had a story about him break in the last day. That would be Julian Alvarez, who could be heading to Atlético Madrid after Manchester City accepted a bid of €75m guaranteed + a possible €20m in incentives. If Alvarez agrees to personal terms with Atléti and makes the move, it’ll be City’s record sale.

We’ve covered Alvarez previously and concluded that he’s an excellent player who would fit in very well with a team that wanted to play with a false 9 or two-striker system. He’s not an out-and-out 9, but he does so many things well. His passing, dribbling, and pressing are all excellent, and his shooting output isn’t bad either.

I’m getting some serious sticker shock with the price. But as we’ve previously established with Osimhen and Solanke… this is just what good strikers cost. You might be able to find value buy, academy kid or position change solutions to problems on other parts of the pitch, but when you need an upgrade at striker? You probably just need to pay up.

News and rumours

• Related to the above, Chelsea are going to sign Samu Omorodion from Atléti for €40m if the Alvarez deal goes through. The 20-year-old had a good loan spell at a pretty defensive-minded Alaves team where he had about 25% of the team’s total xG.

• The mid-priced wonderkid addicts are also closing in on a deal to sign Gabriel Mec from Gremio for £20m. Chelsea can’t stop. Just one more wonderkid bro.

• Liverpool rate Marc Guehi, but think the £60m Newcastle have reportedly bid is too expensive, and won’t be matching it. Geordies, have fun celebrating your GAZUMPING of a big club.

• Ted mentioned a couple newsletters ago that Max Baier might need some time in the weight room before he moves to the Premier League. That’s probably why he’s going to Dortmund to replace Füllkrug instead.

• Man United aren’t interested in paying PSG’s full asking price for Manuel Ugarte, and are now looking into signing Sander Berge from Burnley. I don’t know who’s coming up with the DM profiles over at United because these are not the same style of player.

• If Juventus are successful in selling Federico Chiesa, they could move for Porto winger Galeno to replace him. He’s a fun player who gets into the box and assists at a decent clip, but shoots from long distance too much for my liking.

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