This preview was written by Catalina Bush (@cata-bush on Bluesky).

Catalina is a Data Analytics Intern with the Syracuse men’s soccer team and studies Sport Analytics at Syracuse’s Falk College. Previously, her work has been published in Sounder at Heart and American Soccer Analysis, and she regularly shares MLS, NWSL and USL data visualizations on Bluesky. She is from the Pacific Northwest and passionately supports the US and Colombian national teams in equal measure. Catalina has written here several times previously, most recently on big boy midfielders.

On the face of it, Sunderland’s return to the Premier League appears to be anything but methodical. The team that inspired Wrexham’s purchase took far longer to turn results around than their Welsh counterparts. It was only through multiple changes in ownership, 13 managers in 10 years, and a nearly-unheard-of squad overhaul that Sunderland are where they are now. No, “methodical” is not the right word for it — haphazard, unsteady, or against-the-odds would all be better fits.

And yet, the Black Cats enter the 2025-26 season looking, dare I say, sustainable… or at least as sustainable as one can get in English football. The squad is extremely young, the coach — who joined last season — is relatively new to English football (which can be good or bad, depending on how you look at it), and the majority-owner, Kyril Louis-Dreyfus — yes, of the famous wealthy French family — is, by all accounts, committed to the team’s success. The team has invested, the fans have bought in, and there’s a glimmer of hope for this team to escape the relegation zone if Sunderland’s upward trajectory continues. That’s a big ‘if’ though.

Sunderland ended the 2024-25 campaign in dramatic fashion. After losing five straight to end the season (the team’s 4th place finish was all but confirmed prior to that stretch), Sunderland triumphed in the Championship Playoff Semifinal with a 120+2 winner that sent the stands into a fury, before winning the final, again in stoppage time. These wins were not dominant and calculated; they were decided by vibes, and vibes alone. 

In the regular season, Sunderland were a positive xGD team. It was one of those campaigns where the Championship’s top three ran away with it, so fourth is probably what Sunderland deserved — no more, no less.

This was a true “regression to the mean” season for the Black Cats, after they finished the season prior in 16th despite ranking 6th in xGD. Was there a bit of luck defensively? Sure, but nothing to raise red flags about. 

At face value, these stats don’t appear like those of a team ready to escape the Yo-Yo cycle. Yet, Sunderland have one thing going for them that might improve these underlyings going into their first Premier League run in nearly a decade: young, raw talent. The squad’s average age last season ranked lowest in the Championship at 23.5. If there’s anything generating uncertainty around this Sunderland team, it’s that. 

Régis Le Bris was one of two Ligue 1 coaches to be linked with Sunderland's managerial position in the summer of 2024. The other was Will Still, whose FM legend status immediately made him a more interesting target than Le Bris. And yet, after Still opted for Lens instead, Le Bris was the one who joined. (Guess where Still is managing now! Hint: it’s not the Premier League).

At Lorient, his previous club, Le Bris started strong then suffered a sophomore slump. The former B team manager led his long-time club to a 10th place finish in 2022-23, with the season’s high being a 3-1 win over PSG at the end of April. Two key players for Le Bris that season were Enzo Le Fée and Roman Faivre. Le Fée would leave for Rennes at the end of the season and Faivre would be recalled from loan midway through the 2024-25 campaign. After both of these departures, Le Bris’ Lorient lacked attacking firepower, and with luck flipping from their favor to those of their opponent’s, the French side were relegated to Ligue 2 at the end of the 2023-24 season.

If Le Fée’s name sounds familiar, it’s because he joined Sunderland last season from Roma. Since being reunited with his former manager, Le Fée has had his most productive stretch of games since leaving Lorient.

At Lorient, Le Bris began with a 4-2-3-1 before switching to a 3-4-3 at the end of his first season. The 4-2-3-1 was brought back at Sunderland, a team that had undergone various periods of tactical experimentation under previous managers.

In the 2024/25 season, Sunderland’s attack played similarly to what one might expect from a Championship side. Notably, however, the midfield often pushed higher up the field, pressing opposing backlines and winning stray balls. Additionally, Sunderland benefitted on the counter, likely owing to the speed of several young forwards.

Sunderland did not allow themselves to get caught out going the other way, though; they conceded just 0.08 xG/shot on average.

The question moving into next season is how Le Bris’ style will adapt to a higher level of physicality and speed in the Premier League. For example, will Sunderland's backline be able to deal with teams that are better at exposing space in behind? Will taller and faster opposing center backs easily dispose of the lobbed balls that often led to scoring chances for Sunderland’s strikers? Will their goalkeeper, Patterson, be caught out and forced into mistakes more often? 

Promotion teams of years past suggest that the answers to these questions will not be in Sunderland’s favor. Yet, Régis Le Bris was able to adapt his style to a new league and achieve promotion in the same season. Can he continue to evolve in the Premier League? Only time will tell.

In total, Sunderland have spent nearly £100 million on six new players, all between the ages of 20 and 23. For a team as young as Sunderland, one would think it’d be harder to get even younger. Yet, they’re doing just that. But first up, the departures.

Players out: CB Chris Mepham, CM Salis Abdul Samed, LW Tom Watson, CM Jobe Bellingham

The name most likely coming to your mind is Jobe Bellingham. The brother of Jude made his start at Birmingham but quickly charted his own path, becoming a Sunderland player two seasons ago. While he had large, large shoes to fill, Jobe quietly found his place in the squad this season, settling in at the No. 8 position. While Jobe was never the entirety of Sunderland’s midfield, he was certainly a key cog within it, often serving to drive the ball forward and progress play. To say that he will be missed is an understatement. However, his departure is less of a chest wound and more of a broken bone. This is not a team that will fall apart without him. 

The other main departure is 19-year-old Tom Watson to Brighton for £10 million — the same Tom Watson that scored Sunderland’s promotion-clinching goal against Sheffield. Watson, an academy product, was viewed as not having a clear pathway to a starting place, though Brighton clearly feel they can flip him for a profit in the future.

Mepham and Samed were loanees who returned to their parent clubs.

Players in: CM Habib Diarra, CM Noah Sadiki, LB Reinildo Mandava, RW Chemsdine Talbi, LW Simon Adingra, CM Granit Xhaka, GK Robin Roefs

Sunderland have been active when it comes to bringing players in; the Black Cats have already signed 7 new players (8 if you include triggering the obligation to buy on Enzo Le Fée’s loan). Jobe Bellingham’s replacement, Habib Diarra, joined in June from Strasbourg for a club-record £30 million fee. The Senegalese 21-year-old still has room to grow and will offer a like-for-like swap in midfield, slotting in right where Jobe was playing last season.

The Black Cats have also secured the rights to Simon Adingra, an exciting young winger who made 29 Premier League appearances for Brighton last season. While he scored just twice in those games, Adingra is just two seasons removed from dropping 27 goals + assists for Union St. Gilloise in all competitions. He’ll add depth out wide and presumably allow flexibility for increased rotation in Sunderland’s attack. Speaking of depth out wide, Sunderland also signed Chemsdine Talbi, a 20-year-old right winger from Club Brugge for £20.5 million. To round out Sunderland’s coup of current and former Jupiler Pro League youngsters, Noah Sadiki, a 20-year-old midfielder, has joined for £17.75 million from Union St. Gilloise.

Two other young signings have joined Sunderland in recent days. Robin Roefs, a 22-year-old goalkeeper from NEC Nijmegen — Eredivisie this time, not Jupiler Pro League — has been brought in to supersede Anthony Patterson in goal. Whether Patterson will be happy on the bench remains to be seen.

As veteran reinforcement, Sunderland have also added Reinildo from Atletico Madrid on a free and Granit Xhaka from Bayer Leverkusen for £13 million. Reinildo and Xhaka are 31 and 32, respectively, and although the fee and potential wages paid for Xhaka feel a little high for a player his age, to Sunderland, his presence will likely be priceless. With the quantity of youngsters coming through the door, an experienced Premier League midfielder will pay dividends.

This deal is not official at publishing time, but Marc Guiu is also reportedly joining on loan from Chelsea. The 19-year-old striker made just 3 Premier League appearances last season, so this feels like a good deal for all involved.

A quick summary:

Sunderland have spent a lot of money to bring in players who played a lot of minutes in their respective teams last year, without a ton of sales. Expect several of last year’s key contributors to see their roles in the team reduced.

It may sound weird to hear that one of Sunderland’s best players is a 23-year-old, but that’s the kind of team this is. Trai Hume hasn’t been with the club the longest, he isn’t the flashiest or the most expensive, and he certainly doesn’t bag loads of goals, but he’s the heart of this team. Hume played 4,500 minutes in the Championship last season and was consistently good across multiple categories. He’s defensively solid and drifts forward in possession, dictating the tempo of play and facilitating progression through the lines. 

Hume’s 6 assists was second among Sunderland players and his 0.13 open play xG assisted ranks in the 90th percentile for fullbacks. Trai Hume has the type of consistency that’s necessary when moving up a league, and at 23, he still has room to grow.

On the international stage, Hume has previously captained Northern Ireland and has shown positional versatility; both Hume and Conor Bradley play the same position, so manager Michael O’Neill has been forced to find ways to get both on the field at the same time. Having that kind of leadership and experience at right back will be imperative for Sunderland moving into next season. 

All 4 of Chris Rigg’s goals last season were scrappy, right-place-right-time finishes. None were top corner curlers, beautiful half-volleys, or impressive self-made opportunities; they were tap-ins off deflections and loose balls in the box that turned into shots. If anything, this is representative of the type of player Chris Rigg is. He’s not an elegant, traditional No. 10, he’s a tenacious, physical fighter. The numbers back it up, too; Rigg ranks highest in possession adjusted pressures, averaging nearly 20 per 90. On the field, the 18-year-old frequently slides into challenges, muscles opponents off the ball, and is aggressive in aerial duels. 

His attacking stats may not appear particularly impressive, but it’s because Rigg doesn’t command the ball like a central black hole. He’s involved when he’s needed and gets in the right spaces to help his team. Especially when Sunderland start Le Fée and Patrick Roberts on the wings — two players that like to have the ball and cut in when they do — there’s no need for another creator in the middle. Rigg is good at creating space for others to operate, and as evidenced by his goals, he’s also excellent at cleaning up in the box. While the end-production remained a bit low last season, Rigg still has plenty of potential to realize. He is the true wildcard of this team and is poised to have a breakout Premier League campaign. This is someone Sunderland will almost certainly want to keep a hold of. 

While there’s a chance that Roberts holds onto his right wing spot moving into the 2025/26 season, I’d expect Simon Adingra to slot in there instead. Rigg and Le Fée will maintain their spots, as will Isidor (Sunderland are light at the striker position).

As previously mentioned, Diarra will swap directly for Bellingham, and Neil, despite being a center-piece of the club, will likely be replaced by Xhaka. The backline will most likely remain the same, despite Reinildo’s arrival. Daniel Ballard dealt with multiple injuries last season and so was in and out of the starting XI, but when he’s on the pitch, he's a key part of this Sunderland team. Here’s the full projected lineup:

Of note, current starting left center back Luke O’Nein is 5’8” (174cm). Seriously. Fellow projected starter Daniel Ballard only played 1600 minutes last year as well, so it would be surprising if Sunderland did not sign another center back before the window closed.

While I’d like to be more optimistic about Sunderland, I’m just not sure that they’ll be able to escape the relegation zone, and neither is the rest of the group. I’m excited to watch this team nonetheless.

Prediction: 19th