Superior Spain sink struggling superstars

Spain reached yet another major final by convincingly dispatching the mid-tournament favourites in the first semi-final at this World Cup.

European champions Spain were the consensus favourites coming into the World Cup, but some lacklustre group stage displays coupled with scintillating showings from France seemed to swing the tide in Les Bleus’ favour. Indeed, Didier Deschamps’ side were regarded as the team to beat coming into this semi-final, with most of the pre-match chatter focusing on how Spain could possibly contain them.

La Roja answered all questions in emphatic fashion, producing their best all-round performance of the tournament at just the right time. Although they registered just two shots on target, no one who watched the match (or even glanced at the xG racechart) can possibly make an argument against them being deserved winners.

The only time the match looked to be an even contest was in the opening exchanges, when Spain had some more possession but weren’t allowed easy territory by France’s front-footed defensive approach. Deschamps’ team naturally posed a serious threat in transition thanks to their star-studded front four, thus looking the livelier side initially. However, they couldn’t get any clear openings. The closest they came was in the 16th minute when Kylian Mbappé was sent scampering by Ousmane Dembélé’s exquisite through ball. The Real Madrid superstar looked like he could go clean through for a moment, but was quickly hounded down and contained by three Spanish defenders. That was an omen for the rest of the afternoon.

Spain, for their part, were funnelling their build-ups to the left side. Álex Baena had the freedom to drift infield with Marc Cucurella invited to push up, and fairly often found making free runs into the opposition half. The reason this strategy showed promise was that it attempted to exploit the asymmetry in France’s high press, which looked to go fully player-oriented at times by getting Dembélé and Jules Koundé to jump up.

Indeed, the game’s decisive moment came from the Spanish left. Cucurella got forward and sent in a cross that went over everyone in the middle of the box but dropped towards the edge at the far side. Lamine Yamal cleverly anticipated Lucas Digne’s intention to hack it clear and put his body in the way, earning a penalty. After the French petitions eventually died down, it was Mikel Oyarzabal who stepped up and emphatically scored.

France looked a bit lost thereafter, as their build-up was disrupted by their opponents’ well-coordinated out-of-possession work. Spain also found some joy going over the French press, particularly doing well to pick up second balls after Oyarzabal used his physicality to make a fist of the aerial balls sent in his general direction (William Saliba’s injury likely helped his cause, too). The Euro holders posed a threat at times, but more importantly went into half-time without as much as conceding a shot from inside the box.

Deschamps tried a few different things including swapping Dembélé and Michael Olise to get a better-led press and introducing Manu Koné at half-time, but Spain remained in control both in and out of possession. They would score an all-important second before the hour-mark, this time thanks to an underlapping full-back run on the right as well as some charitable defending.

That was that for the contest. France tried to use their bench but didn’t have any effective tricks up their sleeve, with Mbappé’s attempts at hero-ball not quite panning out either. Deschamps probably missed a trick by not sending on at least one out-and-out striker because his side desperately lacked presences in the box, though that likely wouldn’t have changed the outcome of the match given how excellently Spain held their mid block.

Luis de la Fuente has to be mighty pleased with the coverage his back four provided, and the support the midfielders and wingers offered in the second half especially. Their 4-4-2 kept France at arm’s length pretty much throughout, and Unai Simón was on-point with his rapid sweeping on the odd occasion when their defensive line was breached. Add to that the classic Spanish possession retention, and you get a near-flawless defensive performance that didn’t allow a shot worth more than 0.06 xG all game.

From France’s perspective, their inability to effectively adapt cost them a spot in the final. Had they not conceded an entirely unnecessary penalty in the first half, they likely would have remained favourites to produce a moment of magic and grab a winner. However, once they went down for the first time in the tournament, they never looked like coming back.

Spain, on the other hand, continued to show their ability to excel in different situations. La Roja have equalled the men’s international world record unbeaten streak of 37 games with 28 wins, and have 31 wins and five draws in their last 36 competitive games (since the last World Cup, basically). They have scored 13 goals and conceded just one at this tournament, and now look every part the favourites they were expected to be at the start of June. —NS

I wanted to expand on Neel’s points about how good Spain were out of possession, since it doesn’t ever get enough coverage. Because of the incredible central midfielders the country produces and how stylish the national team and its top club teams have played at their best, Spain are almost exclusively portrayed as a beautiful possession side. But they only had 51% of the ball in this one, and this game was more about what they stopped France from doing with the ball than anything they did with it themselves.

This is a map of France’s players by OBV, a possession value model. It measures all on-ball actions — passes, dribbles, etc. — by how much they contribute to increasing their team’s chances of scoring a goal. No one on France managed to advance the ball into dangerous areas in any meaningful way. Their most effective passer was literally their goalkeeper.

There were both individual and tactical aspects to why this was the case. First, and most obviously, Spain has more talented central midfielders than France. Rodri and Fabian Ruiz were incredible at both avoiding turnovers and denying France any easy passing lanes in the center. Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and halftime substitute Kouadio Koné all failed to both win the ball off them or advance the ball through the center themselves.

In addition to simply having a talent advantage in the center of the park, Spain were excellent at avoiding turnovers in areas that could possibly be considered immediately dangerous, and at trapping France in wide areas.

Almost none of their defensive actions came in the center of the park. Mikel Oyarzabal pressed effectively up top, while Ruiz and Rodri shielded the center brilliantly and forced the ball wide once the first line of pressure was broken. From there, Spain pinned the French fullbacks and wingers against the touchline with nowhere to go.

On a few occasions, Bradley Barcola and Kylian Mbappe were able to make individual plays to beat their man and get to the edge of the box, because they’re world class players. But it didn’t happen often enough to create a high volume of chances, and Spain’s right center back Pau Cubarsi had the game of his life.

Reject the narrative of “France choked” or “beautiful Spain show the superiority of tiki-taka.” This was neither. This was arguably the greatest defensive performance in the history of the competition. —KM

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