Türkiye returns to the World Cup as a dark horse contender

For a country which has not always qualified for major international tournaments over the past 30 years, Türkiye have done well whenever they have done so. Before the upcoming World Cup, the only other time they were in the tournament was in 2002, which saw them impressively finish 3rd. They’ve been more successful in making it to the European Championships over the same timespan, only missing out in 2004 and 2012. Their run to the semifinals in 2008 remains a fond memory for many, and they nearly did it again vs the Netherlands in a tough quarterfinals loss in Euro 2024. 

So there’s palpable excitement surrounding the Turkish national team heading into the 2026 World Cup, with the general consensus being they’ve assembled perhaps their strongest squad ever. Not only do numerous players ply their trade for major European clubs, but they have the top-end talent to play up against tough competition. Being handed a group with none of the pre-tournament contenders in it was also a boost. 

Given all of that, the stakes for Türkiye are high. Qualification for the knockout stages is essential. Depending on how the bracket unfolds, they could once again emerge as the surprise package of the tournament. Before Türkiye play their opening match vs Australia on Saturday, it’s important to look back at how they got to the 2026 World Cup, and why there’s a ton of hope for this generation of Turkish football stars.

Path to the 2026 World Cup

Türkiye were in an interesting group during the qualifiers. Spain were the obvious favorites, having won Euro 2024. En route to the title, Spain defeated Georgia in the round of 16, who were also drawn into Group E. That was the first major tournament in which Georgia qualified as an independent nation. Bulgaria was the final inclusion of the four team group, who famously made it to the semifinals of the 1994 World Cup, but their WC and Euros record has been spotty in the 21st century.

Things looked shaky at the beginning. Türkiye were up 3-0 away vs Georgia for the majority of their opening WC qualifier, before nearly blowing it late in an 3-2 eventual victory. Coming back home saw them get destroyed 6-0 by Spain, which put them in somewhat of an uphill battle through two matches. The loss showed a clear gap between the two nations, with Spain constantly playing through Türkiye’s mid-block and pushing them further and further back towards their own goal.

What came afterwards was strong resolve from Türkiye, gaining 10 out of a final 12 points to finish comfortably in second. This included producing a much better result vs Spain away at Sevilla with a 2-2 draw in the final match of the group stages. The playoffs saw Türkiye advance to the World Cup with consecutive 1-0 victories over Romania and Kosovo, as their collective talent ultimately shone through for long enough stretches of play.

How did Türkiye Play?

When Türkiye did not have to play Spain in their qualification group, they took a more proactive approach with and without the ball. Their 4-2-3-1 did not feature a traditional striker, so there was a fair amount of fluidity among the attackers. Arda Güler was constantly drifting within the pockets to find openings as their chief playmaker, using subtle off-ball movement to try and pull the opposition defensive structure apart. His constant scanning and situational awareness makes him a major threat once he receives in the interior. Hakan Çalhanoğlu has been a good compliment from the double pivot, providing vision and control as a deep-lying playmaker to help facilitate attacking sequences.

Kenan Yildiz’s role was as the guy they could go to on the left side to try and beat their opponent. In general, Türkiye would try to get the ball to him consistently for 1v1s. It could be from initially overloading the middle and then pinging it towards him. In the opposition half, they’d form a situational back three with Ismail Yüksek coming to collect possession from midfield and try to switch the play towards the left. As well, Ferdi Kadıoğlu drifting inwards from the left flank could open up the left side during earlier buildup phases.

Focusing on overloading the middle did help Türkiye with their counterpressing against some of their opponents during World Cup qualifying, including the victory over Romania. The nearest to the ball would help initiate pressure and look to force a high turnover, or an aimless long ball to recover and maintain territory in the opposition half.

Kerem Aktürkoglu was key in both the counterpress and overall press. Not having a traditional nine allowed manager Vincenzo Montella to utilize Aktürkoglu in leading the press. His high intensive runs helped create some nervy moments for the opposition towards the flank, where Türkiye could go man to man and win back possession. The press was certainly not flawless however, as there were moments where it felt as if there was not enough support behind the front line. If they weren’t having success from the initial man to man press along the flank, it could be played through relatively easily. Türkiye would often move into a zonal mid-block with not a ton of pressure on the ball, which was largely successful against everyone not named Spain.

Player to Watch: Kenan Yıldız

What makes Türkiye an intriguing side in this year’s World Cup is that when healthy, their top-end talent is formidable. Since arriving in Euro 2024 as a teenage phenom, Güler has successfully transitioned into an integral part of Real Madrid’s squad. Kadıoğlu rebounded from an injury laden 2024-25 season to win Brighton’s player of the season vote among the club’s supporters. In Orkun Kökçü’s first season with his boyhood club Besiktas after moving from Benfica, he was in the top 10 for combined goals and assists. Can Uzun has shown flashes of future stardom in his young career in the Bundesliga. Go up and down the squad, and you’ll be impressed with the cumulative talent on Türkiye’s squad.  

Very high on the list is Kenan Yildiz. Juventus were hoping he’d become one of their key stars when they signed him on a free transfer from Bayern Munich’s academy in the summer of 2022. There’s been steady progression from him once he became a first team regular a couple of years ago, and 2025-26 was his best season yet. 16 goals and assists in 33 Serie A starts for a decent but unspectacular Juventus side was a very good return. 

What has made Yildiz perform well in Italian football is the high level of control, helped by having a great first touch. He’s not someone who beats you from having elite acceleration and speed, but rather in moments of receiving calmly under pressure. From there, he can immediately shift his body to face forward and drive at the opposition individually or combine with nearby teammates. 

This helps amplify Yildiz as a playmaker, which was the best it’s been yet. He has a wide variety of passes in his repertoire, including those quick 1-2’s, disguised deliveries, and reverse passes into the box. Unsurprisingly, Scout Lab had him in the 90th percentile or higher among wingers and attacking midfielders in Europe’s big 5 leagues for various passing metrics, including open play expected assists and deep completions. Combine all of this, and you get one of the game’s better creators at only 21 years old.

Can Türkiye Make Another Memorable Run?

While Group D doesn’t have any of the pre-tournament favorites, it might be the most balanced. The United States, Türkiye, Paraguay, and Australia can all realistically convince themselves that 1st place is there for the taking. Opta’s supercomputer has the range of likelihood for finishing 1st among the four countries from 17.4% (Australia) to 32.4% (USA). There’s no other group where each of the four countries are given a non-trivial chance by various models to win the group.

Should Türkiye win the group, there is a path for them to once again make noise in the knockout stages. The first round would see them play against one of the various third place finishers, and they should be favored. Assuming things go as expected, Belgium would be the matchup in the round of 16. This World Cup represents a transition from their golden generation, bringing a squad that’s still formidable and in some ways more well rounded, but not having the same fire power as before. Türkiye should have confidence knowing Güler and Yildiz are good enough to turn matches in their favor against almost anyone. In comparison, finishing 2nd would mean facing the 2nd place finisher in Group G (likely one of Egypt, Iran, or New Zealand) and a possible encounter with defending champions Argentina, a tougher proposition.

Türkiye will certainly be a team worth watching over the next few weeks. They’ll be bringing a strong squad which combines both dependable veterans, and the high upside from their young talents. There are some concerns over how their press and mid-block might fare against teams at or above their level, and there won’t be an easy matchup for them in Group D. As well, not having an established striker could end up being an issue when trying to break down low blocks. Those factors, along with how well their backline fares, are factors which could lead to them meekly exiting from the tournament. However, if things click as many hope, it could be Türkiye who emerges as a genuine dark horse in the 2026 World Cup.

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