The case for Atlético Madrid to move on from Diego Simeone

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When Atlético Madrid host Arsenal on Wednesday night, Diego Simeone will take charge of his 793rd game for Los Colchoneros. For some perspective on how many that is: The 10 head coaches of La Liga’s current bottom-half clubs have altogether managed 607 games combined for their respective sides.

La Liga’s longest-serving manager of all time has just over a year left on his current contract, which is worth around €30 million annually and makes him the highest-paid manager/coach in the world. As the clock slowly ticks towards the end of this deal, speculation around his future is starting to grow.

Atléti will surely not make a decision before their Champions League campaign ends. Failure to win the elusive trophy will leave them trophyless for the fifth consecutive season. Their last major honour was La Liga back in 2020/21, but they haven’t come particularly close to winning it since then.

This is going to be the first major call Atléti have to make under the new majority ownership of Apollo Sports Capital, who haven’t changed the club’s key decision-makers so far. Sooner rather than later, though, it will be time to move on from Cholo, and this might well be it.

Season so far

Atlético Madrid are almost assured a very comfortable top-four finish in La Liga, which they have been well on course for all season. They were never really in the mix with the top two but are clearly better than the rest, so they have a 10-point buffer to the Europa League spot despite fully taking their foot off the pedal lately and going through a four-match losing streak.

They have gone the distance in the cup competitions. They will play their first Champions League semi-final in nine years this week, and they recently partook in the Copa del Rey final against Real Sociedad, with the Basque side emerging victorious on penalties. Their toughest opponents in both competitions so far have been Barcelona (whose number they’ve had throughout Hansi Flick’s tenure), but their pathways have been relatively easy otherwise. The only other top-flight side they faced in the domestic cup was Real Betis, while their two other Champions League knockout ties were against current Belgian Pro League runners-up Club Brugge and English Premier League relegation-battlers Tottenham Hotspur.

So, while results have been quite satisfactory on the whole, Atléti’s season hasn’t been all smooth sailing from a performance standpoint. Their defence has been a point of concern, as they certainly haven’t shown the solidity that they have become so associated with under Simeone. Opta have them seventh-best in the league in terms of xGA, while they are letting in close to two goals per game in the Champions League.

There are a few factors behind this defensive downturn including the fact that Atlético are fifth-worst in the league in terms of set-piece xG conceded (accounting for about a quarter of their goals and xG conceded), but on the whole, it is safe to say that they simply do not have the same sort of rock-solid defenders as they used to. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine matches, having squandered important leads against Real Sociedad and Barcelona in both cup competitions.

Transition already underway

Indeed, it is generally not advisable for a team contending towards the top of the table to be overly reliant on their defence, and Atlético Madrid have seemed to recognise this in recent years. Their transfer strategy last summer was heavily focused on attacking talent as well as bringing the average age of the squad down, continuing to build on the foundations of a stylistic transition they slowly initiated a couple of seasons ago.

The team has adopted a slower and more possession-based style of play on the pitch as well. Per Opta, they have the fourth-highest possession average in the league this season to go with the third-slowest direct speed (only quicker than Girona and Celta Vigo) and fifth-fewest direct attacks.

However, they haven’t necessarily reaped all the benefits of such a stylistic transition. Atléti are neither able to control games to a great extent nor have consistent patterns of chance creation against a settled block. As a result, their attacking output is a lot closer to the teams directly below them than the two that they aim to dethrone.

Los Colchoneros definitely aren’t short of quality in the final third, as they have invested well over €200m on transfer fees for forwards and creators in just the last two seasons. The big arrivals have delivered well enough, as Alexander Sørloth has 32 league goals since the start of 2024/25, while Julian Alvarez has 65 goal involvements in 105 outings for the club.

There is some uncertainty around the Argentine forward’s future, but he has definitely proven himself to be able to fully carry the mantle on from Antoine Griezmann and be the team’s all-round attacking hub on the pitch if he stays. The rest of the squad also contains quality ball-players who will be comfortable in a more refined possession-based setup, so the ingredients are ready for a new coach to come in and try to cook their own recipe.

Of course, there is a risk of a drop-off following the departure of Simeone just because of his influence and stature at the club, but Atléti should be sufficiently insulated. Between their strong financial backing and the unlikelihood of most other European contenders in La Liga bridging the big gap to the Champions League spots, they have enough wiggle room to try something different. Better yet, they might have an ideal successor available as well.

The successor candidate: Filipe Luís

I’ve spoken about Filipe Luís previously on the podcast and made the case for him being Simeone’s successor at Atlético Madrid, and now I shall do so in writing.

Atléti hired a 40-year-old Simeone out of South America back in 2011, and they have a lot of reasons to believe that repeating the trick for a 40-year-old Filipe Luís would be a good call. The former defender spent close to a decade playing for the club in the 2010s, spending the vast majority of his time under none other than Simeone. After ending his playing career, he quickly found himself taking charge of Flamego in one of the most demanding coaching roles outside of Europe. By the end of his first full season, he won four titles including the league and continental cup, all while managing a star-studded squad and implementing a control-oriented style of play.

Better yet, the young Brazilian is available since he left Flamengo a couple of months ago due to internal tensions on the club hierarchy’s part more so than anything else. He was allegedly in discussions with BlueCo around the time (but has wisely not been spotted at Chelsea or Strasbourg so far), and has reportedly rejected offers from Brazilian clubs subsequently as he angles for a job in Europe. He still needs to get his UEFA Pro License, so he could get going on that while Simeone’s contract runs down if Atléti, perhaps even in collaboration with the club.

All things considered, Atlético Madrid can hardly ask for better circumstances to prepare for the inevitable post-Diego Simeone era. The best time for them to act on it could well be very soon.

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