The Chelsea Rebuild, Part 2

Hello and welcome to Part 2 of our rebuilding series on Chelsea. If you missed it, Part 1 was released yesterday on the state of the team. We’re advocating for the sale of at least 10 players, maybe even closer to 15.

The rebuilding Chelsea podcast has also dropped, with Patrick and Ted going over the issues with the Blues’ finances and squad construction before getting into who they should target in the transfer market.

Chelsea undoubtedly have some albatross contracts that they’ll struggle to get off the books, and quite a few players that they’re likely to sell at no more than a break even fee for PSR purposes. But selling 10+ players in one window should still raise you one heck of a transfer budget, and today we’re going to put it to good use.

We’ve got a few options to look at for goalkeeper, left winger, and striker. I planned on getting into center back, but uhh… the center back market kind of stinks? There’s really just one player I like better than praying Wesley Fofana gets healthy and Trevoh Chalobah gets better.

OK, keepers.

The obvious fit — Mike Maignan

Chelsea have already had a bid rejected for Maignan, and I have a hard time believing they’re just going to give up. I did a search on StatsBomb for goalkeepers in the top 5 leagues with plus shot stopping, long ball% over 40, pass into danger% under 10, and pass OBV p90 over 0.1. Only one goalkeeper popped up, and you’re looking at him.

The concern is that Maignan has had a couple of meh shot stopping years over his career, and his claims are not elite either. But he’s above average at both while being one of the best distributors in the world. He’d be a great fit for Chelsea.

None of the other guys below do Maignan Stuff playing out of the back, but they’re all about as good as Robert Sánchez as shot-stoppers, good enough at claims, and more comfortable with the ball at their feet.

On the upswing — Marco Carnesecchi

Carnesecchi has been doing well on loans to smaller clubs for a few years, and finally started getting regular minutes with Atalanta last season. He became the unquestioned No. 1 this year in his age 24 campaign and put up excellent numbers. Given that he’s had a nice slow and steady progression to this level, I’m buying these numbers being real.

Buying the breakout? — Mile Svilar

Football Manager players will remember the teenage wonderkid version of this guy, who never quite worked out at Benfica. But after a couple seasons as Roma’s backup, Svilar finally got the big job this year and started all 38 Serie A games, to pretty impressive results. He’d be the riskiest guy on this list, but I still think he’d offer an improvement over Sanchez.

The safest backup plan — Lucas Chevalier

Even though Chevalier is the youngest player on this list, he’s the most experienced. He’s been Lille’s first choice goalkeeper for 3 seasons now, and he’s played 23 matches in European competition. I think he might even be a better shot stopper than Sanchez, and I’d be surprised if a rich club didn’t come in for him this summer.

The CB market stinks but I like this guy — Nathan Collins

Mentioned in the Rebuilding Tottenham piece, and I’ll mention him again. You can see how lovely the radar looks, so first, the downsides. Brentford are not going to let Collins go cheap. He’s probably not a truly elite athlete. I don’t think he gets exposed in space like Slabhead or anything like that, but he’s probably closer to Harry Maguire than he is to William Saliba.

That’s the bad news. The good news is there’s just no one out there with this combination of aerial and ball-playing ability. He’s also gotten steadily better with each season of his career; I do not think this is a one-season wonder situation at all. Dude’s just a top class center back.

I didn’t find anyone else I thought would represent a clear upgrade over what Chelsea already have and reasonable value for money. Y’all better hope Fofana is healthy or Aaron Anselmino gets good fast.

The young, heavily linked left wingers — Jamie Gittens and Malick Fofana

These are kind of the same guy? If Chelsea’s scouting department has also come to that conclusion, it makes sense that they have reportedly pivoted away from a Gittens deal and started negotiating for Fofana instead. Dortmund are quoting Chelsea a price of £50m for Gittens, while Fofana might cost £10-15m less.

If they want a fast, dribbly boy on the left who’s young and has some room to grow, I’d endorse either signing at around a £40m fee.

But the boys mentioned on the podcast that they think left wing is a spot where Chelsea need to spend big and go get a world class player who raises their ceiling right now. We previously talked about Bradley Barcola on the newsletter here; he’d be my top pick if PSG was willing to sell, which does not appear to be the case.

Here are 3 other big names who are reportedly on the market for similar fees.

Rodrygo — Would he be better on the left?

Even though he’s a right-footed player who is more of a shooter than an assister, Rodrygo has spent most of his Real Madrid (and Brazil) career playing on the right to accommodate Vini Jr. But he’s a truly elite dribbler, and a plus shooter when he actually can get to his spots.

A £70m or so fee would be a big risk, but my hypothesis is that whichever rich club buys Rodrygo and sticks him on the left is going to get a breakout star.

Xavi Simons — It’s a no from me dogg

I know that Leipzig as a whole were disappointing this season, and a lot of players on their team have depressed stats. But Simons has always struck me as a guy who is above average at a lot of things, not amazing at anything, I don’t think he’d be worth the fee. It’s giving “Luxury Pedro Neto.”

They shouldn’t… but you know you want to see it — Rafael Leão

The whole premise behind The Transfer Flow is that football media has too much transfer cheerleading and not enough serious analysis. So much coverage frames all transfers as good, all big spending as backing the manager, very little criticism. So what I am about to say goes against the whole reason for this publication, and specifically the rebuilding series, existing.

DO IT. Do it because I want to see it. I don’t know if it’s a good idea. I think it might be a really bad idea. Leão’s out of possession work is bad and he regularly does a bunch of highlight stuff with zero end product. He literally got benched for this at one point. And I do not care because I want to watch this guy play in the Premier League with Cole Palmer.

OK, strikers. As mentioned in part 1, I’d have not bought Liam Delap, kept Nicolas Jackson as a rotation player, and bought a top class striker. Give the podcast a listen for some differing perspectives; Pat agrees with me, Ted likes Delap as a low-stakes gamble/backup and Jackson as Chelsea’s starter.

Since buying a striker now likely necessitates selling Jackson, here’s 3 that Chelsea have been heavily linked to compared to the incumbent.

THE BIG LAD — Benjamin Šeško

If you value your striker being large and good in the air over any other thing they could possibly do, well, here’s your man. Šeško is 6’5” and scores lots of headers. That is the only thing he is better than Jackson at. Next.

The stats are fake… but what if they’re not? — Viktor Gyökeres

A guy who puts up these numbers in a pub league is a good footballer, but in some of his highlights it looks like Gyökeres is literally playing against fat drunks. What is going on in the bottom half of the Portuguese Liga, man? There’s defenders tripping over their own shoelaces like they’re in Looney Tunes.

I don’t know how the numbers translate and neither do you. Neither do the smartest scouts and data analysts in the world. If they did, he’d already be at a rich club by now.

Give me the guy who does all kinds of stuff — Hugo Ekitike

“I’ve been burned by Bundesliga xG before,” you might be saying. And yeah, I do not think that Ekitike would put up 0.58 xG per 90 in the Premier League for Chelsea, at least not in his first season in the league. But his value is in all the other stuff he can do while also getting you above-average shot volume and quality.

I think Ekitike’s dribbling and playmaking are outstanding for a center forward, and are going to help get the most out of Palmer and whoever you bring in at left wing. He’s not currently elite in the air, but at 6’4”, he has the potential to improve significantly. I said he’s the guy who’d raise Liverpool’s ceiling in that piece, and I’ll say the same here. If Chelsea can find a buyer for Jackson, this is the guy they should buy.

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