The Estevao hype is real: A Premier League recap

Plus Arsenal become favorites, Spurs keep getting away with it, is Salah declining?

Author

Ted Knutson
October 06, 2025

You probably missed it, but last week a company called Crux Football, which is a women’s multi-club organisation, purchased Montpellier’s women’s team. Why would that matter to readers of The Transfer Flow?

Because I am an investor, and Kim and I are doing work for the business as Strategic Director of Football and Director of Recruitment.

Nothing will really change around here, except that you will probably see my work a touch less and Kim’s about the same amount.

If you want more info, Patrick and I intend to discuss the how, what, when, where, and why later on the podcast today plus the usual Premier League waffle.

Caicedo only scores laser beams, while Estevao looks like the realest of deals. It’s correct to be skeptical of high-priced Brazilian teenagers, but it’s also true that some of them actually do work out and immediately become one of the best young teenagers in world football.

The assist from Isak on Liverpool’s equaliser — my word. In expected goals terms, Liverpool edged this slightly, and were actually fairly dominant right up until Estevao’s big chance on the equaliser. I know that doesn’t fit the narrative, but we don’t give a fuck about no narratives, ya dig?

Going into the international break, Chelsea have injuries to something like their first six centrebacks. I hope the physio room has tons of quickheal available.

And this is Mohamed Salah’s statistical output so far this season.

No, I will absolutely, positively NOT be taking any questions.

They can’t keep getting away with it? Can they?

Liverpool couldn’t, and their fanbase is properly melting down about what to actually think now, especially give the above. Spurs fans are mostly bemused at this point, where they sit both in the Champions League and a lofty third in the league table.

Confused? Spurs take all three points in this match only about 10% of the time.

It’s not linked due to geoblocking, but the Sky highlights commentator says something like, “Rodon really should score from that angle, he’s unlucky to hit the post,” on a shot that is about one meter off the goal line, and 1.5 meters outside the post. StatsBomb has it as about a 7% chance, which feels correct.

Angles are a thing, and ex-footballer co-comms are still typically dumb.

Anyway, Kudus is off the mark, Spurs keep getting results, and uh… yeah, that’s it.

Manchester United have three wins so far this season, two against promoted teams and one against Chelsea with a fifth minute red card. Yet we still have to give them some credit for being kinda, sorta competent, partly because that was clearly not the case in the two previous seasons.

Mbeumo has 17 shots in the Premier League so far this season and one goal. Cunha has 15 shots and zero goals. But Sesko is doing alright, so while the Regression to the Mean Machine is fully active against United’s recruitment, some portion is still working out.

United fans just have to be delighted that they don’t have to endure an International Break media cycle after a loss this time.

What if Arsenal never give up any goals and then score lots of them against the bad teams? What happens then? It feels like this season we might find out.

It’s early — only seven matches in — but so far Arsenal are the only hyper-competent team in the league this season and they had one of the tougher opening schedules. The depth signings really are paying off so far.

The awesome news is that Bournemouth are fourth and fun to watch. Less awesome are the Bournemouth camera angle (jarring literally every time), and the fact that Bournemouth have played a weak-ish schedule so far. They have rebuilt so much, but the numbers are only a touch above average. I’ll check any real belief until around New Year’s.

Anywho, despite the scoreline, this match was 0-0 in the 70th and a fair score was probably 1-1? Es macht nichts, goals came fast and furious at the end.

Samuel Chukwueze put Ryan Sessegnon through on goal to open the scoring for Fulham. Semenyo scored from an impossible angle to make it 1-1. Kluivert scored from an impossible distance to make it 2-1 home team. Then the third was also put away by Semenyo off a Fulham corner when they threw everyone up while chasing the match late in stoppage time.

Fulham should end up just above midtable, exactly as expected. Bournemouth… wait and see.

Man, I would NEVER hire Ange mid-season. Like, ever ever. This was gross — 18 shots to 5 in favour of the home side. Forest players looked lost and confused trying to build up from the back, which is not really a surprise given the tactical switch and [motions to whatever Spurs did in the second half of last season].

There WAS a lovely marauding Dan Burn assist in this one, which is a phrase possibly never used before in the English language. And then a dumb penalty during Forest’s buildup that lead to a Woltemade goal.

It’s worth noting that Newcastle have the second best defensive numbers in the league right now. That’s a platform to really make a run on, assuming they stay healthy and Howe is less conservative in away matches.

He won’t be.

His tactical stuff looks a lot like Arteta’s choices last season, but with less firepower per position.

I suggested the degenerate (but also correct!) bet on these two teams would have been the draw. And that was true?

The chip from Palace to make it 0-2 that was headed off the line by Jake O’Brien was probably my highlight of the match. And even Jack Grealish is on the Adam Wharton hype train now, which is both crazy and correct.

Grealish and Wharton for footballing president — at least it would be fun to watch.

Villa got another win! And they put up nearly 2 xG*! The attack on the first goal was exquisite.

(*It helps to play Burnley. Burnley are last season’s Leicester — everyone puts up big attacking numbers against them.)

On the expected goals numbers, City are the second most competent team in all the land. Watching them play… I still have questions.

Haaland is absurd, though. Like, so-good-yet-people-don’t-realise-he’s-the-best-in-the-world-good at a level only Messi and Ronaldo saw consistently.

If City ever get good at set pieces, they will return to being very dangerous in leagues again, with or without Rodri’s hamstrings.

Wolves took the lead in the 20th, so lots of game state effects in this one. My only real question is whether they will regret not seeing this one out and getting three. The relegation “race” seems like it is going to be fraught with tension this go round. I suspect they might.

On the Brighton side, I’m keeping me ears open to Hurzeler rumours, but I feel like they still have more belief in their coach than I do. Their injury situation never helps.

—TK

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