The Liverpool Rebuild, Part 1

It’s weird to suggest the league champions are in need of a summer rebuild, but it’s been a very strange season, and Liverpool have benefitted from that. Despite keeping two of the Big Three players that were key components of Liverpool’s recent success, there are inefficiencies and potential upgrades required all over the pitch.

Ahead of this series, Ted and Patrick talked rebuilding Liverpool yesterday on the podcast. They spend the first 10 minutes on the state of Liverpool and their organizational philosophy before getting into the players we expect them to consider in the transfer market.

Today’s newsletter is an expansion on the introduction: The state of the team, how they operate, and who they might look to sell. Tomorrow’s newsletter will go into more detail on potential targets, comparing between ideal, likely, backup plan, and some more off-the-wall suggestions for each position group.

Last week, we detailed the Manchester United rebuilding project. If you missed that, here’s Part 1 on the state of the team, Part 2 on who they should buy, and the podcast companion piece.

The next section is written by Ted, and the rest is from Kim, so you know who to praise/yell at.

What is their deal?

The 20-time league champions are likely in for a busy summer. Michael Edwards is back in the seat of ultimate oversight across FSG’s footballing operations, with Richard Hughes executing strategy directly for Liverpool. This is a good thing, since they (and Ian Graham — and more recently Will Spearman and the lovely nerds who work alongside them) were responsible for building the core that powered Liverpool to huge success across the last decade.

Despite pushback from coaches and their stone aged friends in the media, the nerds won a resounding victory. Which is why it was curious when Edwards stepped away and Jürgen Klopp + compatriots were given the keys to the shiny, red Liverpudlian car for a couple of years. The reasoning there was that the club was in a potential sale process, and keeping Jurgen’s smiling maw happy for further seasons was deemed a better marketing strategy than potential coach turnover and the uncertainty that would go along with it.

Klopp’s era of football oversight, like Klopp’s later years of football on the pitch, was somewhat untidy. That’s no knock on the man — it’s a hard job and has different incentives as a coach who knows he is likely to leave in the near term versus heading an administration that is locked in for the long haul.

Hughes and co. now need to tidy up the age curve, find new cornerstones for the next ten years, replace their greatest ever right back as he leaves for the bright lights and warmer weather of Madrid, and in a year or two also replace the best centreback of recent Premier League times and the best right wide forward ever to be seen on English shores.

Simples, right?

What we have learned about this group of football people is the following:

• They rarely overshoot, and though transfers are impossible to get right every time, they don’t often make mistakes.

• They’ll take risks on reviving the careers of former world-beaters, IF they can find value.

• If the price gets too high on a transfer, they will move on further down the list. Same for wages.

• Everything has to align properly in order for a big fee to be triggered.

• And perhaps most importantly — they have the exceptional ability to tune out the media and the fans and exercise discipline.

All of the above has made them literally the best in the business at what they do on their particular budget. It’s harder now than it was during their first era at Liverpool — A LOT harder, and part of that is my fault because StatsBomb made it easy to access insights at every level of football across the men’s and women’s games — but they’ve been doing it longer than anybody else, so that should balance out… maybe?

Eh, probably not.

The massive advantage they do have now is the full backing of an ownership group that has been there, done that, and has all the scars and trophies to go with it.

Unlike nearly every other group of smart nerds that is not part of the coaching staff, they SHOULD be able to get all of the insights down to the pitch and help Slot and co. execute the best they possibly can. But even now, that’s after easier said than done. —TK

Current status

Liverpool started the season hot, took a big lead in the title race, and never looked back. Their attack has slowed down a bit as the season has gone on, but it’s never been poor at any point. At the same time, their defense has shown slow but steady improvement over the course of the year.

This is a team that’s gotten good at controlling games, with the 2-0 win over Manchester City being a particular highlight.

While there’s been a lot of discourse about Slot moving away from Klopp’s high-intensity football and towards a slower, more possession-based style, he’s done a great job of what Liverpool has been great at in their recent history. They’re still pressing high and countering quickly, and getting a ton of high-value chances out of doing that.

Liverpool’s PPDA and distance from goal that they’re making defensive actions are still well above league average, but down a touch from last season. Between some subtle changes to the pressing structure and Ryan Gravenberch’s move into a more disciplined holding midfield role, the Reds’ defense has improved significantly, going from 1.1 xG per 90 conceded last season down to 0.79 so far this season.

The team’s current composition and style of play should offer them quite a bit of flexibility in recruitment. They undoubtedly have detailed positional profiles that they recruit from, but they neither have a manager who is married to a specific style, nor a team that’s currently bad at anything. Liverpool does not have to overpay for anyone because they’re the only player that fills a particular need. They can hunt for value.

Who should they keep?

Real quick, some shiny radars from the two big dogs. Getting Mohamed Salah to sign a 2-year contract is massive. There’s almost no downside risk on a deal that short. If he retains anywhere near this level of production next season, he’s worth whatever wage he asked for.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2024/25 Premier League player of the season:

Also sticking around is Virgil van Dijk, who is absolutely still that guy. Best center back of the Premier League era?

Besides the obvious superstars, I’ve really enjoyed the midfield partnership of Gravenberch and Alexis MacAllister this season. Neither jumps off the page with outstanding stats, but these are just really solid all-around central midfielders. They give their team a bit of everything. MacAllister does a bit more of the aggressive pressing, and Gravenberch doesn’t get beaten easily as more of a holding option.

Pretty much an ideal double pivot. Nice job boys.

And incredibly, after this point, I think everyone else is very much up for debate. I’d be willing to hear a case for retaining or selling every single other player on the squad, which is kind of an insane thing to say about runaway, deserving title winners. This is a complete team, much greater than the sum of its parts, well-designed to enable their one true superstar.

Who’s for sale, and what’s their budget?

In case you’ve been on an internet detox ayahuasca retreat in the jungle, Trent Alexander-Arnold has announced he is leaving Liverpool on a free transfer. He’s expected to join Real Madrid.

I’m sorry for making Liverpool fans look at this. I don’t want to rub salt in the wound, I know everyone’s real sad. But here’s one last reminder of how good Trent is, and how difficult he will be to replace like-for-like. There are precisely zero other fullbacks who both pass like this and add plus defensive value.

It’s pretty obviously time to move on for two other big name players. The first is Darwin Núñez, who has seen his production fall off a cliff under Slot. Liverpool have to get somewhere in the neighborhood of £30m from a sale to break even for PSR purposes, and will obviously be hoping to get a lot more than that. I do think they can get £40m, but given how far his shooting numbers have dropped off, the case for Liverpool making more than that is probably fanfic.

And then there’s Andy Robertson. He’ll be remembered fondly and was an absolute beast at his peak, but his decline is pretty clear to see. A lot of times a team will keep a player like this past their sell by date to retain some leadership, but Liverpool have enough of that kicking around with Virgil, Salah, and Alisson.

There are no PSR concerns here, he’s been paid off for quite some time, but he’ll likely struggle to find someone to match his £8m+ per season wage elsewhere. If Liverpool want to move him on, they might have to pay him compensation. It’s worth their couple million pounds to clear squad space for a younger left back.

And then stuff gets weird. Some bullet points:

• Alisson has been linked to a big money Saudi move for a bit, but I assume he’ll stick around one more year. Caoimhín Kelleher should depart with Giorgi Mamardashvili replacing him, and I assume we’ll get one year of Mamardashvili as the backup/cup keeper before they decide if he’s That Guy or not.

• Ibrahima Konaté has had a solid season, but perhaps not good enough for Liverpool to give him a big money extension instead of looking to sell him for a big fee. His current wage is in the £3.5m range, and he’ll want a raise to at least £8m to bring him in line with players of similar standing in the squad.

• Wataru Endo could be a low fee sale or a low cost backup. I don’t think he significantly impacts their budget and strategy either way.

• I know fans always want the homegrown guys to stick around and spend their whole career with the club, but I wonder if Liverpool might look to cash in on one of Curtis Jones or Harvey Elliott. I think they’d both have a huge market in the Premier League, and there’s no accounting tricks here. A sale is pure profit straight into the budget.

• Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota both had very good but not sensational seasons, and they’re both 28. As Ted noted up top, this is a team that has to do some age curve adjusting. They probably both have a decent, but not terribly robust market, and that market will only get worse with each season that passes. At least one of them has to go. It wouldn’t be crazy to sell both.

• Federico Chiesa has been injured all year and makes about £8m, so he’s unlikely to have a sale market. Just gotta eat crap on this one.

Liverpool were middle of the pack when it came to profit/loss shown on their books last season, likely on purpose. They did not spend big in the summer transfer window despite being prepared to drop £50m+ on a midfielder if they found one they liked, so they had no reason to pull any accounting tricks in order to make the books look pretty. It was a good year to get any losses from “other operating expenses” on the books.

The wage bill is well under control for a team of Liverpool’s revenue, and there are no unsellable disaster players gumming up the works. If Darwin Núñez at £7m wages per season and a £30m fee required for break even is your “albatross,” you’re doing a good job managing the money.

Liverpool could probably get away with a £100m net spend this summer even if they didn’t sell Darwin. It’s likely we see something along the lines of £100m in sales and £200m in purchases. This is going to be a crazy summer.

Tomorrow: What they should spend all that money on.

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