The most interesting January transfers from the Premier League

The January transfer window usually features a ton of loans, usually with more buy options than obligations. Teams mostly want to plug major holes, and kick the can down the road to summer when it comes to major investment. But this January saw some pretty significant permanent transfers, so we’ve got plenty of interesting stuff to cover.

Real quick, on what’s not covered: We wrote about Jorgen Strand Larsen in detail in a previous newsletter, and Liverpool’s move for Jeremy Jacquet will get its own detailed breakdown from Mohamed tomorrow.

Also, keep an eye out for The Podcast later today, which will also focus on the January transfer window. They’ll have some more on some moves we didn’t have time for in this newsletter, including Taty Castellanos to West Ham and Oscar Bobb to Fulham.

Antoine Semenyo’s transfer feels like a year ago

Hey, Semenyo’s already played enough for Manchester City that we can do a radar comp.

On Bournemouth, he was often the main focus of opponents. He had a high usage rate, and had to dribble and pass his way around defenses that had multiple guys looking at him at all times. On City, he’s playing with Erling Haaland and Rayan Cherki, so he’s doing a lot more looking for space off the ball and high quality shooting opportunities. So far, it looks to be a solid fit.

I don’t know if he’s ever going to justify a £65m fee, and I don’t think he’s any better than Omar Marmoush, but it’s still going pretty well.

There’s still a good striker somewhere inside Tammy Abraham

Injuries and poor finishing have plagued Abraham over the course of his career. But when he’s fit, he presses, shows good dribbling ability, and gets into excellent shooting positions.

Aston Villa did not need another expensive 28-year-old, but Abraham improves their attack and takes a lot of pressure off Ollie Watkins to be the one and only productive striker on the team. I think Abraham is still a really good player when fit, despite the handful of comedy misses he had at Milan.

What are teams paying for in a Brazilian teenage winger?

Villa also signed a youngster, 19-year-old left-footed Brazilian winger Alysson Edward, for a pretty reasonable-looking £10m. Bournemouth paid triple that for 19-year-old left-footed Brazilian winger Rayan.

One is a shot monster, the other is a dribbling machine.

If you watch both of them, the most striking difference is mostly in physique. Rayan already looks the part of a Premier League footballer, while Alysson needs to be introduced to steak and the weight room.

Teams are increasingly using optical tracking data from companies like SkillCorner and their competitors to evaluate which players have the physical traits that might translate across leagues. That stuff doesn’t change nearly as much from team to team or league to league as event data, which is highly dependent on team style of play, teammate quality, and league quality. But of course, being a track star doesn’t necessarily mean you can kick a football into a goal, so recruitment departments need to consider both and strike the right balance.

I am skeptical that a player with Rayan’s current output will become a player worth £30m+ to Bournemouth, even though he’s got the physical tools. But I wonder if they are making a bet on some kind of weird tactical meta shift where they maximize screening, rebounds, and deflections, and kind of just turn into an ice hockey team. Get pucks to the net and good things happen?

Midfielders who can pass will make a comeback! I am not a crank!

Speaking of Bournemouth recruiting off-meta, everyone seems to have decided that midfield passing is fake. As more and more directors of football become SkillCornerpilled, the physical freak central midfielder becomes more popular, and playmaking is overlooked.

Enter Alex Toth, who we’ve previously mentioned in these pages as one of the most interesting performers in the Europa League this year. Bro can pass the ball.

He’s already looked impressive in his early Bournemouth appearances, and I think they got an absolute bargain at £10m. Related: Why does Hayden Hackney still play for Middlesbrough?

And speaking of midfielders who maybe can’t pass

Tottenham Hotspur were in need of a midfielder who can progress the ball. They did sign a midfielder who seems like a pretty good player, but Conor Gallagher certainly doesn’t do that.

If Tottenham can sell a couple of the bad midfielders on their books, and get Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison healthy, and sign a deep-lying midfielder who can pass, Gallagher might become a valuable component of the next good Spurs side. But right now, he’s looking a bit redundant.

I believe in tall man to win header

Lorenzo Lucca was always a bit of a strange signing for Napoli. He didn’t do a lot more than win headers for Udinese. He has proven not quite good enough for a Serie A title contender and Champions League side, but for Nottingham Forest? I’m a fan.

Surely Sean Dyche, of all people, can get something out of this man. Just kick the ball at his head. He’s 6’7” and jumps like an NBA player. Get it to the big man and let him dominate.

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