The numbers don't match the vibes: A Premier League recap

Are City really title favorites now?

Author

Kim McCauley
April 20, 2026

The sky is falling, it’s so Joever, etc. Nevermind that Opta’s projection model still gives Arsenal a 73% chance of winning the Premier League, due to their 3 points in hand and easier run-in. City are title favorites now according to my xVibes projection model, and everyone else’s too.

The game of the year was a pretty even one, where City had the higher volume of shots but Arsenal had the bigger, more memorable chances. Both teams had long spells of playing scared.

It felt like a very strange clash between two teams who do not believe that they are the best in the league and deserving title winners. No matter which team wins, they are likely to be remembered by rival fanbases as lucky and fraudulent.

But it’s not like there’s a single obvious “deserving winner” of this year’s Premier League title. Sometimes there isn’t a team with the gravitas or aura or whatever you want to call it that we’re all looking for in a champion. Sometimes the title winner is merely pretty good, and both of these teams are pretty good. On Sunday, they played an entertaining game of solid but not exceptional quality that felt fitting as a de facto title decider.

Except, it wasn’t! Despite the narrative played out on the broadcast that a win makes City title favorites, it most certainly does not do that at all. Arsenal have zero matches remaining against teams in the top half, while City have four, including a match against Aston Villa on the final day.

This result gives City fans plenty of hope and was a serious kick in the stomach for Arsenal fans, but it didn’t decide anything.

The Bees are trying their best to throw away a European place with a series of increasingly frustrating draws. Bernd Leno was excellent in net here for Fulham, but it’s yet another match where Brentford drop points despite winning the xG by a pretty significant margin.

This win combined with Tottenham dropping points makes Leeds virtually safe from relegation, and they should be able to mathematically confirm their place in the Premier League before the final day.

In the NBA, there’s a running joke about teams who are mentally checked out and already on the beach. They’re said to be in Cancun, Mexico, but teams who are so bad that they’re undeserving of that trip are told they should go to Galveston, Texas instead. And I’m wondering, what’s the UK equivalent? Teams that have earned their spot in Europe but can’t win the title spend the end of the season mentally in Mallorca, but what about Wolves? Are they mentally in Brighton? Bournemouth? What’s the lamest place to go to the beach on the south coast?

Previously, I have been of the opinion that Eddie Howe’s antis are crazy people and that Newcastle aren’t so bad. Following a 3rd consecutive loss and 2.74 xG conceded at home, I am starting to waiver.

And yet, while down in 14th place, the Magpies are still sporting a positive xG differential. They’re still only 6 points out of a European place. On the other end of the spectrum, Bournemouth have gone 13 unbeaten and are having one of the best seasons in their history… with the exact same xG differential.

Sometimes ball goes in goal, and sometimes it doesn’t.

Spurs finally played a decent match against a decent opponent for 90 minutes. They played actual football, created actual chances, and even put a couple of them in the goal. The vibes had done a 180, they were staying up! And then an individual error at the back gifted Brighton an equalizer, and Spurs’ run without a win at home continued. Their last Premier League victory at their own stadium came on December 6.

“Liam Rosenior isn’t doing too bad, Chelsea have been unlucky,” I continue to say through gritted teeth that I’m grinding into dust.

The Blues’ Champions League hopes were already looking thin, but they’re basically dead and buried after this week, with Villa and Liverpool also picking up victories. Chelsea are now 7 points out of a CL spot and would require an absolute collapse by Liverpool to have a shot.

United, meanwhile, are kind of limping their way through Michael Carrick’s tenure. They’re getting just enough results to stick comfortably in the top 5, but they’re not actually looking great as of late.

What started out as a pretty standard-looking Villa win over the first 85 minutes descended into an utterly chaotic ending. If you haven’t watched the highlights of this one yet, please do.

It was kind of perfect from the two teams who are overperforming their underlying numbers more than anyone else this season.

It’s been an utterly disastrous season for Liverpool in every single way. Make up a thing that could go wrong for a football club, and it’s gone wrong for Liverpool at some point. And yet, here’s Virgil van Dijk with a 95th minute winner away to their local rivals, to all but lock up a place in the Champions League. If that’s your disaster season, you’re doing pretty well.

Galveston, or Bournemouth, or Brighton, or whatever you tell me the right beach town to send Burnley to is.

Monday: Crystal Palace vs. West Ham

A super consequential one for Tottenham and the relegation race. Palace seem to still be trying their hardest and not completely checked out, but Mallorca Brain could hit at any time.

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