The secrets to Sunderland's early season success

Despite a massive spending spree from Sunderland over the summer, there was still ample skepticism over whether it was enough to survive relegation. Multiple outlets predicted them to be one of the three clubs to not survive the drop, partly influenced by the previous two seasons where the same 17 remained in the Premier League. Sporting Index’s preseason points prediction had them finishing with a measly 29 points, 13 below 17th place Wolves. There was little hope outside of the Stadium of Light for Sunderland’s chances of survival.

Instead, the first 11 matches have been something of a fever dream for The Black Cats. Sunderland are currently 4th in the Premier League heading into the November international break. They’re already 65.5% of the way towards the predicted 29 points tally from Sporting Index (19). Even through this opening stretch of the season, they’ve got a memorable victory away vs Chelsea and snagged a point late against Arsenal. There might not be a more ecstatic fanbase than Sunderland’s at the moment.

The previous two seasons saw promoted clubs in Burnley under Vincent Kompany and Southampton under Russell Martin try to survive with a more daring approach in-possession than you would expect from teams of that caliber. Burnley’s swashbuckling brand of football did not translate in the Premier League due to the massive talent disadvantage. The same could be said about Southampton, with their attempts at deliberate buildup play through the middle leading to conceding the most shots from errors last season according to FBref. 

It was always unlikely that the current crop of promoted sides would look to be that adventurous with the ball, and that’s been the case so far. In Sunderland’s case, they rank 18th in possession and similarly in field tilt. According to Opta Analyst, only four other sides have had less passes per sequence than Sunderland’s 3.28, and the same can be said about buildup attacks. Although their zones of control (also from Opta Analyst) isn’t quite as one sided as maybe the possession and field tilt would indicate (purple = Sunderland, pink = opposition), they certainly wouldn’t be thought of as a dominant possession side.

During buildup, Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki come deep as the pivot while the backline is spread out in a 4+2 structure. If they’re starting five defenders, Trai Hume can move inwards and try to moonlight as a midfielder. Sometimes they’ll try to bait the opponent into pressing them, to mixed results. Of course, they can also try and go long in the hopes of creating something from regaining the 2nd ball. Only Jordan Pickford and Martin Dúbravka have attempted more 40+ yard passes than Sunderland’s Robin Roefs.

A lot of those successful plays when progressing towards the final third involve Granit Xhaka in some manner, as he’s been Sunderland’s conductor. After a successful run with Bayer Leverkusen, his return to the Premier League has been one of a steady presence. This includes moments of settling things down to gain control of play. In matches where The Black Cats do get a higher share of possession and final third territory, his forward passing becomes a bigger factor.

He’s also been the primary taker of their set-pieces, and nearly delivered a late assist from a fantastic whipped cross during the 2nd phase of a corner vs Everton.

Sunderland in the opposition half focus a ton on wing play, with a particular left side bias. According to Opta Analyst, 40% of their chances created has been from the left, tied for the third highest percentage in the league. Enzo Le Fee has a free role on the left, including providing forward runs to stretch the opposition. Xhaka and Reinildo Mandava are also on the left side to make those wide rotations more threatening, with the former not being afraid to launch first time crosses into the area. Among central midfielders in the league, he’s in the 78th percentile for crosses. 

What’s also kept Sunderland in these matches has been their ability to generate chances from set pieces. They’ve got a +2 goal difference from dead-ball situations (4 for, 2 against), and according to Statsbomb, rank 4th in set piece expected goal difference. Their away victory vs Nottingham Forest saw the match’s only goal come from a bit of trickery during a wide free kick. Sunderland had a 3v2 advantage on the far side, and Omar Alderete was able to stroll into the box for a goal off of a sly pick from Arthur Masuaku.

Out of possession, Sunderland have the profile of a team who is fine defending deep and are tough to break down. Despite being tied with Wolves for conceding the 3rd most shots in the league, they’ve got the 6th lowest expected goals against. For a promoted side trying to keep their head above water, being able to win enough battles in your own third is crucial for survival. If you’re going to concede a lot of shots, you want it to look like this.

Part of surviving in the PL is having a goalkeeper who can make some saves, and that’s been the case with Robin Roefs. Public expected goal models have him as one of the best shot stoppers in the league through 11 matches. Given the limited sample we have of him, it’s tough to tell how much of this is sustainable. Sunderland desperately need him to continue this form to further solidify their standing in the league.

In the moments where Sunderland look to press, it’s mostly been of a man-to-man variety. There’ve not been a ton of those instances, relatively speaking. Pressing metrics like passes per defensive action and starting distance have them among the bottom of the league. They’ve had some success when trying to shade the opponents to the left side, and they can be aggressive when trying to counterpress following a loss of possession following a long ball towards the final third. Sunderland are just below league average in counterpressures in the opponent’s half (25.81 vs 25.45), according to Statsbomb.

More often than not though, Sunderland are willing to concede some territory and defend deeper. It’s usually a 5-4-1 zonal block, but they try to not be too passive when defending in their own half. There’ll be opportunistic jumps to reduce time on the ball from opponents. If the block is played through, the likes of Alderete, Nordi Mukiele and Daniel Ballard help clean up dangerous scenarios. 

Sunderland’s victory at Stamford Bridge was an interesting display of their out of possession work. There were a few instances in the first half where they tried to press man-to-man and were easily bypassed. However, their mid-block and low-block helped keep Chelsea at bay, further illustrating a long-standing problem from The Blues. Bertrand Traore was active on the right side in his own third, helping double Alejandro Garnacho and even helping generate the odd transition attack. Although Chelsea ended up with 16 shots, they got no good looks from open play.

It would be fair to suggest that Sunderland don’t play a sexy brand of football either with or without the ball. However, they are a well drilled side whose style of play makes sense with the talent available to manager Regis Le Bris. There has been a fair bit of luck to what’s gone on. For one, their conversion rate of 11.8% is the 7th highest in the league. That’s helped having to avoid chasing games for too long, only spending 21% of their time from a losing position yet still gaining the most points with 9. Something interesting of note is despite the defensive resiliency, it hasn’t translated to fast attacks going the other way. Opta Analyst has them tied for 16th for fast breaks, and 19th in direct attacks. You’ll see them wanting to reset into their structure during settled possession following an open play turnover, rather than immediately launching outlet passes towards the forward line. That’s a subplot worth monitoring going forward.

For those hoping Sunderland’s amazing start can continue, we’ve seen other lower level Premier League clubs who were surprise stories at the 11 game mark of the season. Southampton were 3rd at the same point in 2013-14 with a collection of English talents (Adam Lallana, Luke Shaw, Rickie Lambert) managed by Mauricio Pochettino when he was up and coming. That combination got them to a commendable 8th place. West Ham and Swansea were 4th and 5th respectively a season later, with Swansea also finishing 8th in what ended up being the tail-end of their mini period of success. The most famous one was Leicester in 2015-16, going from 3rd through 11 matches to winning the whole thing by season’s end. These kinds of examples have happened with less frequency in the following seasons, reflecting an even more fixed PL hierarchy than before. 

Last season did see Nottingham Forest have a quick start to their season, flirting with finishing in a Champions League spot before eventually landing in 7th. There’s an interesting contrast with how Forest in 2024-25 went up early and were able to absorb pressure before hitting on the break (+5 goal differential in the first 15 minutes), versus Sunderland who’ve been grabbing late results, tying for the highest GD in the final 15 at +4. 

The most likely result for Sunderland is they start to come down to earth. Although there’ve been some choppiness during open play in the Premier League this season, opponents might start to figure out how to better attack their set defense. If the conversion rate dries up, they’ll be chasing games more often and there’s legitimate skepticism over how good they can be in those situations. Even still, so many points have already been accumulated that they can play at a relegation-like level the rest of the way and that should be enough to stay up. Sunderland have a team they can be proud of watching, which is one of the happiest surprises from what’s been an eventful 2025-26 Premier League season so far.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.