The Vinicius Jr. Paradox

We are now on year… 2? 3? … of Vinicius Jr. reportedly being unhappy at Real Madrid and willing to consider a move to the Premier League. The star Real Madrid winger has been accused of sulking since losing the Ballon d’Or to Rodri, and he’s never quite found great chemistry with Kylian Mbappe. Enter reports that Chelsea is making a €150m bid to secure his services.

We’ll get to why I think this report is BS in a second, but first, how’s Vini doing this season? The answer appears to be: Fine, but not playing at a €150m level. Potential suitors will probably be unconcerned by current form given his excellent track record and age — he’s still just 25 — but it’s worth pointing out that his production is down. He’s still the same style of player, but he’s not getting into elite shooting positions that often.

The problem with Vini has been and will continue to be his wage demands relative to his production. This is a particularly big problem for Chelsea, the team linked to him in this report. In my personal opinion, the outlet Fichajes is not a particularly accurate or well-sourced one, and their articles should be taken with a very large grain of salt. And I’m not buying this story in particular, because signing Vini would be a complete 180 degree turn from Chelsea’s recent strategy.

Perhaps the biggest strategic undertaking for the BlueCo ownership has been to reduce Chelsea’s wage ceiling. They’ve been unable to move Raheem Sterling out the door, but other high earners have exited. The Blues’ wage ceiling for new contracts now appears to be somewhere in the £10m per season range.

While it’s hard to make true apples-to-apples comparisons due to differences in salary reporting conventions between countries, different tax rates, and currency exchange rates, Vini would likely require something similar to Sterling’s reported £17m salary to consider making a move.

If he gets it, that sets the bar for every subsequent contract Chelsea tries to negotiate. They’re not really a club that does STATEMENTS OF INTENT; they’re trying to predict who’s going to increase in value, and they’re trying to pay those players as little as possible while they’re on the club’s books.

While this analysis is specific to Chelsea, it applies broadly to anyone who’d consider signing Vini, and why they’ve yet to go for it. This is The Vini Paradox: He’s undoubtedly a great player who would improve any team in the world, but no one seems to think he’s quite good enough to be worth making their top earner and setting a new bar for top-end salaries. No one thinks the gap in quality between Vini and guys willing to take salaries of £10m or less is worth the outlay, especially if there’s a 9-figure transfer fee attached.

Perhaps Chelsea think he’s The Star worth shifting their strategy for and going all-in on, but I’d be shocked. It’s just way out of their M.O. under current ownership. I want to see what Vini can do in the Premier League, but this story does not make sense.

I’m not sure what Man City are doing

Before we head into the regular rumours section, my Antoine Semenyo and Manchester City thoughts are just a touch too long for a single bullet point. If you haven’t seen, that transfer is a done deal for £65m, as long as he doesn’t get injured against Spurs tonight.

He’s been one of the league’s great xG overperformers, scoring 8 npxG from 4.59 xG. Most of his shots are from really narrow angles. He’s been less productive this season than he was last season. I am surprised that anyone paid up and I think Bournemouth have made an excellent sale.

Last year at this time, City paid a similar fee for a player who plays a similar role in their team, Omar Marmoush. I wrote at the time that, while Marmoush was clearly a great footballer, I did not see where he fit in City’s team and was very skeptical that it was the right move. A year later, he’s barely played 300 minutes this season and City have just spent a ton of money on a player that could ostensibly be his replacement.

Maybe you’re inclined to trust City’s judgment that Semenyo is the perfect fit for them and his numbers will improve in their system, surrounded by elite talent. But the way the Marmoush deal has worked out is exactly why I am not inclined to feel that way at all.

Semenyo will score some goals, because how could any decent attacker not do that on City, but he’s not any better than the players who were already on their books. I think they’ve paid too much money for a player who will not improve them, and who will decline before the end of his contract.

More transfer rumours

• With Ruben Amorim out at Manchester United, you should probably re-think everything you thought you knew about the status of their squad. A bunch of players previously desperate to leave, like Kobbie Mainoo, are now willing to give the team another chance, Joshua Zirkzee to Roma is now complicated, and Marcus Rashford might have a path back to Old Trafford.

• Real Madrid would like to make Adam Wharton their NEW GALACTICO, and understand it’ll cost them at least €70m. I suspect Premier League teams are willing to pay even more than that, and Wharton will collect a massive fee for Palace. Probably not until summer, though.

• Speaking of guys Crystal Palace should make a lot of money on if they don’t wait too long, Marc Guehi is likely to be the subject of significant January interest. It’s easy to say “just wait and get him for free,” but with the title and European races so close and the CB market so thin, I feel like someone pays up?

• Spurs were linked to Monaco attacker Maghnes Akliouche all summer, and continue to scout him. I thought he’d have been a better signing than Mohamed Kudus in the summer, and I still think that.

• Tottenham are also trying to find a young developmental left back, with links to Souza and Luca Netz popping up. Can’t help but notice that none of the Spurs rumours are about central midfield, their weakest position by some distance. Have they heard of midfield? Are they familiar with the concept?

• Money isn’t real in Turkey, so Fener have just dropped €29m on Matteo Guendouzi. Money is real in Italy, so Lazio are replacing him with Kenneth Taylor for less than that. I am skeptical that Taylor has the athleticism to play at the absolute top level, but I’m excited for him to leave Ajax so we can find out.

• A bunch of teams are interested in 19-year-old winger Sani Suleiman, a Nigerian who plays in Serbia, and consider me interested too! Definitely going to watch some tape of this dude:

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