Tottenham Hotspur have bounced back from an awful start to the season by going unbeaten and taking 10 points from their last 4 matches. Spurs are now up to 9th, just 1 point out of a likely European qualification place, and their 0.23 Expected Goals Difference per 90 is better than Chelsea and Liverpool. They still look a long way off from being a properly good team, but it is fair to say that they are comfortably Not Shit under Roberto De Zerbi.

Spurs’ attack got off to a putrid start, but they’ve created a high volume of chances over their last 4 games. Their attackers still aren’t looking that dangerous — especially vs. settled blocks — but De Zerbi’s boys are getting the job done through a combination of set piece xG, creating shots off their high press, and plain old volume shooting.

Of course, if Spurs are going to make the leap towards being a proper European contender, they’re going to need some of their forwards to look like goal threats. Omar Marmoush has been disappointing thus far, Savinho has been injured recently, Dominic Solanke is what he is at this point, and Mathys Tel is still unproductive despite the occasional flashes of brilliance.

One player who des appear to have taken a bit of a step forward, though, is Mohammed Kudus. Prior to his signing, I stated on this very newsletter that I would prefer getting hit by a car to Tottenham buying him, and I was vindicated in that rather extreme statement. But he’s looking like a reasonably productive all-around winger at the moment, getting into the box more regularly and occasionally doing something with the ball instead of farming freestyling clips for his Instagram.

But the real secret to Spurs’ success — as it was with their survival campaign under De Zerbi at the end of last season — has been their defense. Following an extremely rocky start, Tottenham have dialed in their press and set piece defense, frustrating opponents and taking away the easy shots they were giving up during the first 5 games of the season. Spurs were the Premier League’s most impressive defensive unit in October.

Of course, the very nature of Tottenham is that they crash and burn at exactly the moment you start to believe in them. I look forward to the abuse I get blaming me for an embarrassing loss to Leeds.

In this week’s Variance Betting, Ted has 5 bets on the Premier League and 4 on the Championship. Most of the bets on VB are usually on goal spreads, but he found value in the over-under for the Arsenal-Hull game this week. If you’re interested in football betting and want to learn how to gamble smarter, you can sign up for Variance Betting here.

This week, the most transferred in player in FPL is Bournemouth striker Evanilson. He’s on a bit of a hot streak, having scored in his last four consecutive Premier League games. But I’m still a bit weary of him as an FPL pickup, because he’s not getting a high volume of quality chances. He does have some favorable fixtures coming up — Bournemouth are 8th in Solio’s projections for goals over the next 5 games — but I’d really like to see some more shot volume from my FPL striker.

Last week’s FPL darling was Nicolas Jackson, who I’d be even more concerned about. Some of his stats are definitely suppressed by Aston Villa starting slow as a result of so much transfer turnover, and I totally understand a bet on them rounding into form. But Jackson, a player who was chased away from Chelsea due to his inconsistent finishing, is currently overperforming his xG due to some top quality finishing. This feels like quite the risky play to me.

Personally, I am rolling with Thierno Barry in my less expensive striker slot. He continues to be undervalued due to his occasionally infuriating poor finishing, but he’s getting so many more shots from quality areas compared to the alternatives that it doesn’t matter if he misses a sitter every single game. And as an added benefit, he’s at home vs. Coventry this week.

Picking Evanilson or Jackson over Barry in FPL feels like complete nonsense to me. You can’t predict when someone is going to run hot or cold, and neither can I. Just go with the guy who has a ton of xG.

Borussia Dortmund vs. Elversberg — Yes, Elversberg look like a good team. Wild.

Manchester United vs. Aston Villa — An incredible comeback at Roma probably saved Michael Carrick’s job. But with an upcoming international break giving time for some changes, he probably needs a good performance from his boys here too.

Inter vs. Como — Como scored NINE goals midweek in the Champions League, and they’re unbeaten over their last 5 in Serie A. We might have a sensational title race in Italy.

Atlético Madrid vs. Barcelona — Between Diego Simeone running down his contract and the Julian Alvarez saga, I thought we might see this era end with the Rojiblancos limping to 4th again. Instead, they look up for a fight with the big boys, with Álex Baena and Giuliano Simeone starring.

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