Thierno Barry can still be a star for Everton

In the lead-up to the 2025-26 season, Thierno Barry was mentioned by yours truly as one of the most intriguing Premier League transfers of the summer. Everton have constantly been on the look out for a dependable double digit goal scorer, something they haven’t had since Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison were at their respective peaks a few years back. To help alleviate those concerns, they signed a forward in Barry who already had a track record for scoring goals in Europe at a young age. 

It’s normally smart to exercise caution with prospects and not treat progress as linear, but early on, Barry had been closer to the exception. He moved from SK Beveren in second division Belgian football, to FC Basel in the Swiss Super League, to Villarreal in La Liga during his early years. All of this occurred from the 2022-23 season through 2024-25. He scored goals for fun with SK Beveren, and then at a solid yet unspectacular rate against stiffer competition with Basel and Villarreal. Despite the drop in output, there were flashes last season of a greater all-around skill set than you’d expect from a striker listed at 6’5.

There was still skepticism over how much of his game would translate. The main one was the notable athleticism advantage he had in Spanish football, especially in transition moments. With physicality being a lot more pronounced in the PL during both open play and set pieces, the upper hand he had was likely to lessen. Barry was also joining a league which has numerous strikers of a similar profile to his, so he might not stand out in the same way. Even still, most agreed the £30m price paid for Barry was reasonable and an example of Everton’s shift in how they operated in the transfer market.

What excited people the most about Barry from his time in La Liga was what he did off the ball. At a young age, he was already hinting at a solid repertoire of off-ball runs. The way he could generate space for himself in the box was noteworthy, and even outside the 18 yard area, he’d frequently look to make runs in behind on the last line. It’s no surprise that he had an efficient shot map last season, especially with how many of his shots came from the central zone.

In comparison, one could argue Barry’s movement has not been nearly as proficient with Everton. Some of it is moving from one tactical environment to another. The signing of Jack Grealish has been a clear positive for The Toffees, but as a result, the team doesn’t move with speed when there could be transition opportunities to be had. Whether it be direct speed, direct attacks, or fast breaks, Everton rank at or near the bottom in those metrics this season, according to Opta Analyst. 

Because of this, it takes away chances for Barry to make some hay from sprinting in the channels. During settled possession, he’s become more fixated with hanging out at the far post, and there’ve been less dynamic movements where he fakes one way and counters by going the other. He’s still been able to sometimes create space for others in the box. Iliman Ndiaye’s goal versus Brighton came from Barry dragging his marker from the far post towards the middle near the 6 yard area, with Ndiaye expertly dashing towards that area for an easy goal.

Despite the concerns, Barry’s expected goals per shot has actually improved with Everton compared to his time as part of the Yellow Submarine. However, the volume has been a worry. 11 shots from open play in 765 minutes is a massive decline from the 60 he generated last season in 2583 minutes. What’s kept him his shot volume from hitting total rock bottom are the several headers he’s had during corners.

You may have noticed that Barry’s expected goals are outpacing the sole non-penalty goal he’s scored so far this season. This isn’t just a one-time occurrence, since the same thing happened with Basel and Villarreal, although it should be noted he did overperform his npxG total in Belgium.

We still don’t have a big enough sample to conclude whether or not he’ll regularly be a below average finisher, although even if he becomes run of the mill like many others at his position, he might be more susceptible to bad shooting moments. His footwork is not the cleanest, being susceptible to having happy feet and meeting chances in an awkward manner. An example of this was his 65th minute shot vs Bournemouth, being on the receiving end of a cut-back from James Garner and shooting it way wide of the target. 

An area to monitor with Barry as he made the jump to English football was how he operated with his back to goal. More and more, the Premier League is eschewing the middle third, so strikers of his archetype are expected to be proficient vs center-backs whenever teams look to go direct in the hopes of creating faster attacks. 

There have been positives and negatives to Barry’s back to goal play. On the plus side, Everton have leaned on him heavily as an outlet for long balls during open play and set-pieces, and he’s definitely delivered. According to FBref, he’s in the 98th percentile among PL forwards for aerial duels won at 6.37 per 90, and 79th in aerial duels win rate at 45%. The volume is a massive step from last season with Villarreal (3.84 AWs won per 90 at 67.3%), reflecting the difference in the tactical environment with the two clubs. He’s a strong leaper who is comfortable handling physical defenders. Even in some of the aerial duels he loses, he can help create space for teammates to regain the 2nd ball and look to progress play. With more game time to foster chemistry, those headed flick-ons could lead to dangerous attacks 

The negative has come with handling floor passes. Barry’s been prone to moments of bad first touches which nullify possession, and suboptimal decision making. Promising moments can occasionally go awry because of heavy feet, or making the wrong choice of who to pass it to. Like with the shooting, he can look a little clumsy. Despite playing solidly last season in Spain, his link-up play on the ground was something he had some trouble with, and that has travelled over to the Premier League. 

Add all of that together, and the end result is an interesting striker profile. Whereas Barry was able to drift towards the left side and often carry into space vs backpedaling LaLiga defenders, he’s instead been asked to be the prototypical target man who has to do a lot of the dirty work so teammates can have an easier time in the opposition half. As well, he’s more than held his end of the bargain out of possession when Everton are having to defend. Such a role doesn’t get much limelight, but is crucial for an attack to function properly. Barry has been a helpful piece, albeit he isn’t all the way there yet as a 9, partly due to inconsistencies with more intricate link-up play.

Off-ball movement and shooting will be key in determining just how good Barry ends up being during his peak. The former has been less pronounced this season compared to last, but the hope remains he becomes dynamic without the ball. He’ll have to improve at staying onside, including situations where he’s trying to come back from an offside position to confuse CBs. He’s currently tied for 9th in the PL for offsides committed, after placing tied for 5th in La Liga in 2024-25. There is the possibility he turns out to be a bad shooter (maybe influenced by how exhausting his style of play can be), which if so, necessitates the need for him to manufacture tons of shots to make up for lesser shooting talent. 

Barry has had an interesting beginning to his Everton career. There’ve been some real lowlights, and it took nearly 800 league minutes for him to finally score his first Premier League goal. However, the level of persistence shown when battling for aerial advantages has been commendable, and his willingness to battle means he’ll have some utility. The hope is with further fine tuning, Thierno Barry can become the kind of striker who ably handles grunt work while also scoring 12-15 goals over the course of a Premier League season.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.