This Everton and Forest target is a nightmare to evaluate

A year after making a €50m move to Juventus and not playing very much, Douglas Luiz would like to return to England. The Bianconeri are very much agreeable to this idea, but would like to get most of their money back. The large fee that they paid is making that difficult, but so is the fact that he barely got a chance to show off what he could do last season.

At Aston Villa, Luiz was a ball-winning midfielder who occasionally showed off the ability to get forward as well. In his 622 (!) minutes for Juve, he showed absolutely zero ball-winning skills. I don’t think that he simply forgot how to tackle, but the combination of Juve’s risk-averse possession style and the games he played in led to whatever the heck this production is.

Everton have been linked to Luiz all window, but have decided to wait it out to see if they can knock down that £40m asking price. Nottingham Forest are also interested, but they’re trying to see if they can get a deal done for a loan fee of around £5m up front, followed by a buy option or obligation.

Besides thinking that Everton and Forest should not ever pay £40m for a 27-year-old who isn’t an obvious immediate superstar, I don’t know how to evaluate how he fits at those clubs because he simply didn’t do anything last season. If he reverted to his Villa form, he’d be a solid but overpriced signing for those clubs. But that’s hardly a guarantee two years later, and I don’t want to be locked into paying Douglas Luiz big wages in his age 32 season.

If either team can get him on a loan with no buy obligation, great. But a purchase has a ton of risk factors that both teams should avoid.

More transfer rumours

• Hello everyone this is YOUR daily dose of Alexander Isak gossip. Liverpool made a bid and it was rejected. They’ll probably make another one.

• Newcastle have asked Brighton about Jan Paul van Hecke, who I like a lot. If Brighton want around £40m, I don’t think that’s outrageous.

• Speaking of potential Brighton outgoings, Serie A teams are asking about Matt O’Riley. I’d be a bit surprised if the Seagulls went for the quick flip here, but perhaps they know something we don’t about his injury.

• We keep seeing rumours about Man United’s fringe players leaving, and then they keep not leaving. So here’s some new ones! Chelsea are still interested in Garnacho, Leipzig might take Hojlund if they sell Sesko, and Sancho will take a pay cut to return to Dortmund. If United get decent fees for all 3 of these guys, it’ll salvage their summer.

• If Crystal Palace end up selling Marc Guehi, they’d like to replace him with Inter Milan defender Yann Bisseck. He’s a massive lad who wins a lot of aerials.

• Bayer Leverkusen want €30m for Amine Adli, who has farmed a ton of stats off sub effects against meh opponents. He’s barely played one season’s worth of minutes in the last two years combined. Supposedly Wolves, West Ham and Sunderland are all interested, but certainly not at that price. Maybe a loan with an option to buy at that price.

• I’m not really sure what Atlético Madrid is up to with their transfers this summer but they’re interested in Giacomo Raspadori from Napoli, despite already buying a left winger and also being linked to Enzo Millot.

• Everton had a £27m bid rejected for Tyler Dribbling, but if bids like that are coming in, I can’t imagine he’ll play in the Championship this season.

• I think this rumour linking Spurs to Randal Kolo Muani is bogus, and either the player’s agent or PSG would really just like Juventus to move their ass.

And one last thing: We have a huge Premier League season preview coming out the week of Monday, August 4. It has detailed previews of all 20 teams, with contributions from Ted and I, plus a slew of other brilliant people. We wanted to be able to pay them fairly, so it’s £10, and you can get it here. Click the far right option on PC/bottom option on mobile, and make sure the button at the bottom says £10. This sub will get you access to the whole thing: All 30,000+ words, with stats and data viz you won’t get anywhere else.

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