Turns out Florian Wirtz doesn't stink

Florian Wirtz cost Liverpool £116m in the summer, and he got off to a rather slow start. Following a couple of genuinely poor performances in the summer, he was briefly moved to the bench. But he’s found his footing in the last few months, particularly when it comes to getting his own shot.

It’s not just his xG that’s up. Total shots, xG per shot, shot OBV, and total touches in the box are all looking excellent since December 1.

Notably, Wirtz has always looked like the best version of his Leverkusen self in the Champions League, where he’s faced some more familiar opponents and styles of play. In those appearances, he’s been Liverpool’s best playmaker.

I think this contrast shows why he was a £116m player — there aren’t too many guys on earth who can be their team’s primary shooter or creator, depending on the game situation.

And while he hasn’t created a lot of super high xG chances in the Premier League yet, I very much like the look of a guy who can get the ball to his teammates in and around the box with this kind of frequency. I’d bet on his assist totals shooting up quite a bit between now and the end of the season.

I run the risk of looking very silly gassing up Wirtz the week his team plays against Manchester City, but I’m pretty confident this post will look good in May, even if it doesn’t on Monday. He’s found his footing in the Premier League, and Liverpool aren’t going to end up regretting the purchase.

With the Big Game™️ coming up, our partner bet105 has a promo with the best odds you’ll find anywhere on the spread: -103/-103 with up to $100k limits. They’re also offering -101/-101 on the coin flip for the real sickos.

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On the free podcast, Patrick and Hayden reviewed some of the biggest moves of the January transfer window.

Over on Patreon, they got into whether or not back 3s actually develop elite center backs. If you subscribe to the Patreon, you get an exclusive podcast every week, plus two behind the scenes off topic chats from the recordings of the free episodes.

This week’s Variance Betting features some juicy Premier League lines, but more to avoid than bet on in the Championship. Ted has 6 bets on the Prem, and 2 on the Champ. It’s mostly underdogs getting a quarter goal more than they should, but he does have a bet on one big team. If you’d like to see the reasoning behind his bets every week and learn how to become a smarter gambler, you can subscribe to Variance Betting here.

The FPL corner

If you missed the two big pieces of news: Gameweek 26 is a double for Arsenal, and they’ll blank on GW31. Also, Bukayo Saka is injured, and is unlikely to sit out GW26 to make sure he’s completely fit to face Tottenham on GW27.

As a result, the most common move on FPL Mate’s 100 experts poll is to sell Saka to buy Declan Rice, and bank the £3m for a rainy day. I’m inclined to agree, and that’s what I’ve done with my team. Godspeed to any Noni Madueke FPL believers, I’m a big believer in his IRL skills and I hope you’re right! But I’d rather have Rice’s reliable set piece delivery.

You’re definitely going to want to go with as many Arsenal players as you can fit over the coming weeks, though. They’re both the best team and have some extremely favorable fixtures.

Make sure you adjust your team immediately btw! There’s a Friday game, the deadline to set your team is only a couple hours after this newsletter comes out.

Finally, you should avoid using your free hit. It’ll come in very handy in GW31, when you want to ditch all your Arsenal players for a week, then get them all back for the following set of fixtures.

And as always, if you want a more comprehensive look at all the FPL news and trends, you should subscribe to LazyFPL.

Games we’re watching

The easiest place to find listings for your country is probably LiveSoccerTV. All the good games are on Sunday this week, I wish these leagues could coordinate schedules.

Atlético Madrid vs. Real Betis — Probably not a ton of stakes here, Atléti are pretty locked into a CL spot and Betis too far behind. But it’s still 3rd vs. 5th, two teams that are quite good at football.

Liverpool vs. Manchester City — The loser will be declared The Baldest Manager Of All Time.

Bayern Munich vs. Hoffenheim — Last week’s poor performance from Bayern suggests the result is not a foregone conclusion, but I think they’ll come out pissed off and hang 4 or 5 on their opponents here.

Juventus vs. Lazio — Juve’s been playing much better recently and are into a Champions League position. It’s a tight race for 4th in Italy.

PSG vs. Marseille — The early season hiccups have been cured and PSG are rolling at the moment. I think they’ll assert their dominance here.

Stuff we’re reading

Michael Caley at Expecting Goals separated set piece stats from open play ones to see if he could better predict future set piece success. Featuring some very fun charts on who’s got a set target man and who spreads the ball around.

Conor O’Neill at The Athletic looks into why long-range goals are surging in the Premier League.

David Segar at Opta Analyst argues that Florian Wirtz is starting to show his talents and live up to the hype.

Marcus Bring at Total Football Analysis breaks down Rayan’s performances at Vasco da Gama and whether he’ll succeed at Bournemouth.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football asks what went wrong for Brazil at the 2006 World Cup. On paper, one of the most stacked teams of all time.

Ed Maylon at FootBiz reports on how Elliott Management’s bet on AC Milan worked out so well.

Tom Garry at The Guardian has a recap of the winter transfer window in WSL.

Flo Lloyd-Hughes at The Cutback interviewed Gotham GM Yael Averbuch about NWSL roster rules, the salary cap, and how to build the best team possible.

Catalina Bush at The IX laments the loss of FBRef for women’s football analysis, which has significantly increased the disparity between men’s and women’s football for available data.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.