Ultra-high pressing isn't dead

There were modest expectations for Hoffenheim heading into the 2025-26 season. The club finished 15th last season, just three points above the relegation playoff. While it was Christian Ilzer’s first full season in charge after being hired during the November international break, the managerial change didn’t lead to promising results at first. Their underlying team strength was below par for the entire season. They spent a lot over the summer (in the region of €79 million) to help strengthen the squad, although they did lose a key player in Anton Stach to Leeds. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Opta’s supercomputer was pessimistic about their chances and had them finishing in 14th place before the season began.

The state of the club is much rosier now than it was then. With only three matches left, Hoffenheim are tied with Stuttgart for 4th place but below in goal difference (+16 vs +20), which would gain entrance to the Champions League. Bayer Leverkusen only being two points behind with a superior GD to Hoffenheim (+20 vs +16 as well) makes them viable contenders. While there is some intrigue in the relegation race, the battle for that 4th and possibly final CL spot is the thing to monitor in the final three matchweeks of the Bundesliga campaign.

Arguably the key to Hoffenheim’s success is what they’ve done without the ball, particularly with their high press. Across a variety of metrics, few teams in the league (if any) rank above them in metrics which try to quantify pressing. According to Opta Analyst, no side in the Bundesliga has more pressed sequences than their 443. Meanwhile, according to MarkStats, they rank 1st for lowest opponent buildup percentage. Both Statsbomb and Opta have Hoffenheim with the highest passes per defensive action as well. This isn’t surprising given what Ilzer has said in the past. In an interview with the Bundesliga website, he made mention of wanting to play with speed during possession and be on the front foot without the ball.

What’s interesting with Hoffenheim is how heavy they lean into man-to-man defending in different situations. Whether it be them initiating the press or defending in deeper areas, their out of possession structure is full of coordinated jumps towards the opponent on the ball. If done properly, it’s led to a lack of available passing options.

When defending high up, crucial to their success has been the intensity of the furthest player forward who’s trying to hound the opposing goalkeeper. Usually, that’s someone on the forward line, but it can also be a midfielder jumping up. The likes of Wout Burger, Grischa Prömel, and Leon Avdullahu are proficient at making sure their cover shadow is utilized so there’s not an easy pass towards the middle. Among the forwards, Tim Lemperle has been really good at making purposeful pressing runs to help lead the press. Once possession gets to the wide areas, the man-marking becomes even more intense with the touchline acting as an extra defender. Unsurprisingly, there’s a lot of red across the opposition half in their defensive activity map.

The high turnovers generated from the press has been beneficial for Hoffenheim to create against a non-set defense. Via Opta Analyst, they’re 4th in the Bundesliga for shots generated in these situations, although in the lower half for percentage of high turnovers leading to shots. They’ll regularly look for home run passes in these situations. If those aren’t available, they’ll try to circulate possession towards the flank and then flood the box for crosses or cut-backs. Only Stuttgart and Mainz have attempted more crosses than Hoffenheim’s 450, and no one in the league has a better success rate than their 27.8%. Some of their success is due to how many they commit in these situations. According to Scout Lab, they’re fifth for attacking penalty box touches.

Another impressive part of Hoffenheim’s out of possession framework is how strong they are when trying to win the ball back in. According to Statsbomb, they’re tied for 3rd in percentage of counterpressures in the opposition half. It’s common to see opportunistic jumps from nearby Hoffenheim players, including from the defensive line, to constrict the space and win possession back. At their best, they show an impressive display of determination and awareness to turn defense into attack. One example is the 3rd goal they scored vs Frankfurt in their 3-1 away win in late January, when they hemmed them in with the man-marking and quickly switched to the opposite flank for a driven pass attempt which ended up in an own goal.

Hoffenheim’s press hasn’t been flawless. Opponents with high-end talents have the capacity to break through via intricate 1-2’s and having the dribblers to bypass their marker. This helped lead to RB Leipzig thoroughly defeating them 5-0 last month. Even in their defeat to Hoffenheim in the first meeting from November, they had some success in dragging players around and creating space in behind. The counterpress has also had its faults, including failed attempts to try and box the opposition from cleanly escaping their own penalty area. Hoffenheim are tied for 6th in fast breaks conceded, according to Opta Analyst. There’ve also been moments where their attempts at building through the middle doesn’t work and they’re not able to pressure immediately, leading to the defensive line backtracking towards their own box. 

This results in Opta Analyst having Hoffenheim conceding a non-penalty xG/shot of 0.11, in the upper half of the division (Statsbomb has them at 0.10). However, a big key is that while they’ve been prone to giving up some high quality chances, the overall shot suppression has been above average as they’ve conceded the fifth least amount of shots. If you plan to be an ultra high pressing side, you cannot concede both a ton of attempts and have them be good opportunities.

It’s rather impressive how Ilzer has helped Hoffenheim turn things around in his first full season in charge, primarily through leaning into ultra aggressiveness out of possession. The high press has been able to consistently force long balls from the opposing GK, and dangerous chances from high turnovers. This has been due to how they control the center with their man-marking, an aggressive high line, and being formidable in the air (3rd in the Bundesliga for aerial duels won) also helps in establishing possession. Those traits will be key in Hoffenheim’s fixture on Saturday versus Stuttgart, which will be crucial in deciding who ends up in the top four. When they faced off in late December, the fluid movement of Stuttgart’s attackers was able to cause some confusion and make it harder to press. While it ended 0-0, the home side had the better of the chances in open play and could’ve won it on another day.

Even if Hoffenheim were to miss out on the top four, qualifying for Europe is a great outcome for their season and provides a solid base to improve on in the future. Ilzer’s resume was already notable given he was the manager of Sturm Graz when they ended RB Salzburg’s 10-year run as Austria Bundesliga champions in 2024. A win on Saturday and finishing 4th would improve his profile tremendously. After a bit of time, the ideas shown during his tenure in Austria have translated to German football. It could be that one of Europe’s most high octane press helps drive Hoffenheim to the Champions League for only the third time in their history. 

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.