USMNT soars, but a suspension could clip their wings at World Cup

We had three superior sides threaten to absolutely choke against big underdogs on Wednesday. Two of the stronger sides, the USA and England, prevailed in the end. Senegal, on the other hand… oof.

England avoid upset of all upsets vs. DR-Congo

England’s 2026 World Cup campaign has been a mixed bag to say the least. After showing a lot of attacking verve in their 4-2 victory over Croatia, things became a lot more stunted in their 0-0 draw to Ghana and 2-0 victory versus Panama. Meanwhile, DR Congo’s resolute defense helped power them to the round of 32 via an impressive 1-1 draw over Portugal and a 3-1 victory against Uzbekistan.

There was an expectation that DR Congo would sit back in a compact defensive block from minute one against the clear favorite in England, but that wasn’t the case. In an inspiring manner, they were on the front foot both with and without the ball, including quick combinations. This helped DR Congo get a surprising lead, with multiple runners confusing England’s backline for a lob towards Brian Cipenga on the far side. His shot surprised Jordan Pickford, flipping the match on its head.

England looked frustrated heading into the first hydration break. Like it’s been the case throughout the tournament, the momentum shifted massively following the restart until halftime, with a barrage of chances created against DR Congo influenced by more cohesive wing play. If not for Lionel Mpasi putting on a shot stopping display of the highest order, this could’ve easily been 1-1 or even 2-1 in favor of England.

Outside of a fast break opportunity from Marcus Rashford early on in the 2nd half, the “third quarter” followed a similar pattern in that England could not create anything worthwhile. It wasn’t until the introduction of Bukayo Saka (60th minute) and Eberchi Eze (70th minute) where there was more thrust in their ability to find gaps in DR Congo’s low block. Declan Rice shifted to right back with Djed Spence being taken out for Eze, and the 73rd minute equalizer originated from Rice’s underlapping run into the box. Rice lobbed it to the opposite side, and Anthony Gordon chipped it back into the middle for Harry Kane to finally beat Mpasi.

I’m not sure how to describe Harry Kane’s late winner other than by using a line from the late Chicago Bulls commentator Stacey King, “big time players make big time plays.” It’s an unbelievable strike with little breathing room, placing it in the top corner with Mpasi rooted to the ground. People who are reading this already know Kane is one of the great finishers this sport has seen, and this goal was just another to add to the catalog.

England survived to set up a headline showdown with Mexico at the Azteca. With altitude being a key x-factor in the matchup, it gives El Tri a real opportunity to make the quarterfinals for the first time since 1986. For DR Congo, they proved to be an incredible source of inspiration for the country, and were very close to seeing this win through. This loss will sting, but the team should be proud of what they accomplished in the 2026 World Cup. —MM

Historic bottlejob from Senegal keeps Belgium in the tournament

For 86 minutes, Belgium vs Senegal went about as expected.

The Lions of Teranga were the better team, and gradually put together some nice possession-play after a cagey start. Their central fluidity and constant movement in the wide areas caused problems, with crosses proving particularly threatening. It was one such delivery that led to the opener before the 24th minute, which came through Habib Diarra turning in a loose ball to a gaping goal.

Senegal dropped back thereafter, but their opponents could hardly lay a glove on them. They came out of half-time looking threatening once again, and quickly doubled their lead thanks to a wonderful take and finish from new first-choice striker Ismaïla Sarr.

Although they dropped off again thereafter, Belgium could hardly pose much of a threat. Rudi Garcia had brought on Romelu Lukaku at half-time, but the double substitution that took both Jérémy Doku and Kevin De Bruyne off in the 56th minute seemed to signal the end of any realistic contest.

For another half an hour, that looked to be that. However, in the 86th minute, Lukaku converted Belgium’s first attempt worth more than 0.1 xG to halve the deficit. Less than three minutes later, a misjudgement from second-choice Senegalese keeper Mory Diaw enabled Youri Tielemans to head the ball into an empty net, and on we went to extra time.

Pape Thiaw’s side didn’t show much intent in the first period after the ninety, but they did step up in the second. Ibrahim Mbaye had the pick of their chances in the 109th minute, running onto a cutback in the centre of the box but sending his shot wide.

Of course, the game looked increasingly likelier to be decided on penalties the closer we ticked to the 120-minute mark. Indeed, it was won from the spot, but not in a shootout. Belgium were awarded a penalty well into stoppage-time after a lengthy VAR review that showed substitute midfielder Lamine Camara dislodge Tielemans as he attempted to redirect a cutback. The Lions of Teranga didn’t quite walk off the pitch this time, though they did try to delay the decisive kick as far as possible as one of their players feigned injury right on top of the penalty spot. Eventually, the Aston Villa midfielder who won the spot-kick stepped up to take it, and finished with aplomb to seal the latest comeback victory from a two-goal deficit in World Cup history. —NS

USA advance comfortably, but lose their superstar

At no point did the United States look like losing to Bosnia and Herzegovina. The latter side had just 1 touch in the penalty area while 11 vs. 11, and finished the game with just 0.25 xG.

But a majority of the game was still nervous for the hosts. They hit the woodwork and had a goal disallowed for offside in the first half, only finally taking the lead in the 45th minute through star striker Folarin Balogun.

Through 70 minutes, Balogun was clearly the best player on the pitch. Futi’s player rating model really loves progressive receptions, of which Balogun had 11. If you think that’s some newfangled gobbledygook and prefer classic stats like xG and penalty area touches, he had 0.6 of the former and 16 of the latter. Superstar stuff.

But then Balogun was sent off for a dangerous challenge, and the US had to hold onto their lead with 10 men. They were only under real pressure for about 10 minutes, before Malik Tillman scored a direct free kick to lock up the result for the Americans, taking advantage of some extremely poor goalkeeping from Nikola Vasilj.

Given how poor Belgium looked for the first 86 minutes of their Round of 32 match, the Americans will probably head into the next round as slight favorites. Whether or not they should be depends on how you feel about the backups — they’ll be counting on a career best performance from either Ricardo Pepi or Haji Wright, since Balogun will be suspended.

The Americans are looking the best they ever have in the history of their national team program, but that’s been with one of the best performing strikers in the tournament. I’m skeptical that they can maintain this level of performance without Balogun on the pitch. But they also might not need their A-game to defeat Belgium. —KM

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.