Variance Betting - EPL and Eng Champ Weekend Analysis

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Note 2: I definitely hear a lot of you on wanting more info on where/how to bet and can you find “discount” books or ones that offer decent lines on soccer? We’ll discuss this during the next international break. We’re also looking to create some courses, both for people who are coming to these concepts anew, and for those that want to dive deeper into modelling, price analysis, etc. Those will be slated for next summer.

How do you deal with being wrong about a player in the transfer market?
How do you deal with a losing run when betting?

Weirdly, these are the same question, but posed on very different timelines. In sports betting, you usually get answers to your predictions (bets) within 24 hours. In football, you sometimes get answers in 12-24 months, but other times it takes eight years.

In this case, I’m referring to Kaan Kairinen scoring his second goal in as many UEFA Champions League matches. Nikos Overheul (who was a guest on one of our early pods) was probably the driving force behind signing Kaan to Midtjylland. Unfortunately, Kaan didn’t really work out in Denmark. He’s publicly said that he had depression and experienced an eating disorder that derailed his career during that period.

However, he seemed to right his ship at Lillestrom, and then Sparta Prague moved for him in January of 2023. This is interesting because a) Tomas Rosicky is the Sporting Director of Sparta Prague and has been using data in recruitment for years, and b) Brian Priske, formerly coach at Midtjylland, was head coach for Sparta Prague at the time. When Brian moved to Feyenoord this summer, another former FCM coach, Lars Friis took over. [Full disclosure: I am a big fan of both of those guys, and helped Lars a tiny bit with his UEFA Pro dissertation.]

But plenty of players don’t work out. Humans are deeply complicated, and taking them out of one environment to plonk them down somewhere else may return different outputs than previously produced. When players don’t work out as expected, we speccy, snot-nosed, stats-based recruitment nerds tend to spend a lot of time trying to figure out what went wrong. It’s part of the constant quest to get better at your job/passion/obsession. Sometimes you find it, but plenty of other times it remains a mystery.

Most of us feel bad about it, but it’s not your fault. In fact, unless you are Director of Football, you probably don’t control anything else in the process that produces successful footballers.

Yet, we still review everything - all of our successes and failures - in order to try and improve.

I woke up Thursday after a very poor night of Champions League results feeling… curious. Yes, I’ve been losing bets lately, but my primary emotion was wanting to dig into the why of it, and see if this was random, temporary, or a fresh run of being really wrong about football teams in general. This was true for teams I lost on (Monaco), but also teams I had reads on but did not bet for or against (Juventus, Atletico Madrid, Brugge).

This is not my first rodeo with losing. I have had million dollar weekends as a trader, but way before that, I had weekends where I lost many times my annual salary trading the Premier League. My first weekend on the job, I lost $68K, and spent the next two days not talking to anyone while burying my head in Football Manager. Thankfully, the emotional swings attached to the ups and downs of gambling get easier if you have the right framework.

Much like with players, I don’t control any of the outcomes of my bets. I can only do my best to make probabilistic predictions about the lines, and then execute to the best of my ability. Losing doesn’t devalue me as a person. I have done some fairly impressive things in my life already, and I have many years of winning at betting in the past.

It helps that the amounts lost are small. As noted when I started this, I could lose every bet this season and it would not materially impact my quality of life. It would be hugely frustrating - I fucking hate losing - but not much more than that.

To be honest, if I found a way to lose with extreme reliability, it would be the best gambling story ever. You could all fade all of my action and make fortunes. Much like the hope, it’s the unpredictability that’d the killer.

I have had 3-17 betting weekends. And a lot of 15-5 ones too. The latter you feel like a golden god, and the world bows at your feet. But sadly, it’s really just riding good process and a lot of variance. The name of the column is baked in to the endeavour.

It also helps that the line movement seems to be good too. We are regularly landing on the same side as Big Money in the betting markets - sometimes stealing away the value from our bets before we make them - but again, this is good process and if you are able to do it long-term, typically ends up with a highly winning profile.

Anywho… regardless of my results, I’ll continue with the analysis for you to make your own bets. And I’ll continue to see whether, while starting a data company to produce the best gambling data in the industry, I somehow eroded my ability to successfully bet on the Premier League.

English Premier League

Crystal Palace v Liverpool +1 2.05/1.86 OR +1 +105/-115
Bets: No Bets

Liverpool top the table and had a fairly tidy midweek win against Bologna. Meanwhile, Palace had the week off to try and sort out their press. This is an interesting one for me - if we believed in Palace, I’d probably take the leap on +1 at home, after a midweek CL tie for a big team.

But I do not believe in Palace. They have a talent deficit in midfield especially, and I can’t quite pull the trigger.

Leicester City v Bournemouth +.25 1.99/1.91 OR .25 -101/-109
Bets: Bournemouth -.25

This is one of a series of learning games this weekend in the PL. I’m high on Bournemouth, provided they aren’t shooting themselves in the foot. I probably should have bet on them Monday, but oh well. And Leicester are the team that fixes everyone else’s xG numbers to the good. Which is a very bad trait to have.

Assuming Bournemouth are competent could be dangerous, but here we go again.

Arsenal v Southampton -2.25 1.91/1.98 OR -2.25 -109/-102
Bets: No Bets

Given full health for Arsenal, I’d bet this at -2. -2.25 keeps me out.

Re: Southampton, I’m more interested in the sack race between Martin and Lopetegui. Both feel like foregone conclusions, and both potentially happen as of the international break. So… after this weekend?

Brentford v Wolves -.5 2.06/1.85 OR -.5 +106/-117
Bets: No Bets

This is one of those matches where extensive injuries to one team screws up the whole plan. Wolves are pretty bad. Healthy Brentford are quite good. But Brentford are not healthy and Wolves have had a tougher schedule.

-.5 feels treacherous to me either way.

Brentford really need the international break to return a few more players off the medical tables to the squad.

West Ham v Ipswich -.75 2.03/1.88 OR -.75 +103/-114
Bets: Ipswich +.75

Close your eyes and choose a number you THINK this handicap will be. Or if your brain works differently, what percent of the time do you think West Ham win this match at home against Ipswich? That’s how you handicap in olden times, before we had any real data models.

My answer was West Ham by a quarter goal. The market… did NOT think that. The market has West Ham -.75, which would make sense if you went strictly via talent level in the squad, or via budget, or if you hadn’t seen West Ham play at all this season.

I don’t think Ipswich are good, but I do think they have a competent coach, and I think West Ham are a mess. Lopetegui masterclass, incoming. [To be fair, betting a promoted dog away feels pretty loose.]

Man City v Fulham -1.75 1.91/1.98 OR -1.75 -108/-102
Bets: Fulham +1.75

Fulham had nothing midweek, while City had a training match in the Champions League against Slovan Bratislava. If you really want to bet against City, now’s probably the time. They are still trying to figure out how to play without Rodri, and Fulham are basically fully fit and actually decent this season. We’d be happier at +2, and fully expect Thor to slice them apart for his one millionth hat trick in world football, but … what if he didn’t? Eh? We could win that bet.

Everton v Newcastle .25 1.95/1.95 OR +.25 -105/-105
Bets: Everton +.25

Isak is out with a broken toe. they also have a variety of small knocks from the Carabao Cup. Everton are officially more alive than dead now (and I expect the Friedkens to sanction moves in January, but that won’t help them here).

Everton should probably be tiny favourites here. As it is, they are small dogs. We’re *wince* betting Everton.

SUNDAY

Chelsea v Forest -1.25 2.08/1.84 OR -1.25 +108/-119
Bets: Forest +1.25

Chelsea are riding high, and the world seems to have completely forgiven their form of three weeks ago. They played midweek in the Europa Conference League, but literally swapped the entire starting 11 versus Gent, so fatigue is not a thing. Plus, if there’s any team in the entire world that has squad depth right now, it’s Chelsea.

Forest were a little unlucky to lose to Fulham last week, but whatever. They will rock up to this fixture and once again be absolute pains in the ass to play against. The question is… how big should the handicap be? Chelsea are fourth in the table, but who outside of Chelsea fans is confident they’ll stay there? They can be dominant, but still feel fragile.

My numbers had this at Chelsea -.75 to -1. At 1.25, we’re priced in to another dog bet.

Aston Villa v Man United -.25 1.94/1.96 OR -.25 -106/-104
Bets: Aston Villa -.25

Fuck, I have to bet on Unai Emery’s team again.

Can they at least try not to sit on a lead when they inevitably get it against United? Please? Just let the boys attack ETH’s kids like everyone else does and they should find great success.

Brighton v Tottenham .25 1.95/1.95 OR +.25 -105/-105
Bets: No Bets

Spurs have the best expected goal difference in the league. Thank you, Manchester United, you are apparently the rich man’s Leicester when it comes to improving opponent xG Difference. However… Son is probably OUT.

Brighton looked great until the last two weeks when teams started pressing their back line and getting results. Spurs definitely saw this and will try to do the same, which probably pushes Brighton’s build-up patterns into unknown territory. They have the athletes to be able to play on the break and force Spurs to respect that, but there’s also a long injury list.

I’m going to enjoy watching this match from the sidelines.

English Championship

WARNING: FRIDAY MATCH
Sunderland v Leeds
Bets: Under 2.5

The two best sides in the Championship (cue LOTS of arguing, mostly from Boro and West Brom fans) face off under the lights at the Stadium OF Light on Friday night. Leeds have a stifling defense so far - conceding only .38 xG a match. Sunderland have been very good, but the defence is not at that level.

Midweek Sunderland won 2-0 against Derby at home, and they once again did that weird thing where they stopped taking shots at the 2-0 point. What’s with the coaches at this level?

I expect this to be a cagey affair with Sunderland especially trying to contain Leeds’ breakouts. 6 of Leeds 8 matches have gone Under 2.5 goals so far this season.

[The Total moved overnight and is now 2.25. I’d still bet it, but for half size.]

I am sending this out on Friday to be helpful, but strongly advise playing on Saturday morning for the rest of these matches if/when the vig is lowered.

Norwich v Hull -.5 -100/-114 [This vig is just sad.]
Bets: No Bets

Norwich drew at home to Leeds midweek, which was about as good as could be expected. Now they face a Hull side on a bit of a heater recently, with both sides currently on 12 points.

I think Norwich are stronger on paper, but this line is within a few cents of where I would have pegged it, so nothing to bet.

Burnley v Preston -.75 1.97/1.90 OR -.75 -103/-114
Bets: Burnley -.75

EFL midweeks are always a madhouse. We saw Stoke score 6! goals in a game when they had scored 4 total across the previous seven. Cardiff finally won, and beat a good team in the process. And Preston put away Watford 3-0, while Burnley ground out a 1-0 home win against Plymouth off the back of an early penalty.

The problem with Burnley is that, a bit like Sheffield United, we can’t trust them to cover a big spread even when they have a talent advantage. But this handicap is only -.75, which is in their range. It’s a little aggressive versus what the models think, but I figure they’ll take care of business here.

Portsmouth v Oxford
Bets: No Bets

What to make of Portsmouth? They had an impossible opening schedule, which we gave them full credit for… and then lost 6-1 at Stoke. Oxford are a good tester team, but I don’t think Pompey should be actual favourites against them.

I’m leaving it alone until we learn more info.

Plymouth v Blackburn .25 1.99/1.88 OR .25 -101/-115
Bets: No Bets

Plymouth can beat teams at home, and maybe only at home. Thus far this season, Blackburn are the same, though they are defensively sound and their match against Coventry Tuesday was the first loss of the season.

I expected this line to be more like Rovers -.5, where I might have had an opinion. At .25 I’m happy to leave this alone, while we see if the Fighting Roonaldos can find their feet.

Derby v QPR -.25 1.96/1.90 OR -.25 -104/-111
Bets: Derby -.25

I read some praise of QPR coach Marti Cifuentes recently and it confused me, because I’m pretty sure QPR are sorta bad, and bad in a way that’s tough to dig out of defensively. They shoot a lot of shots, though. Which is nice.

I don’t know, maybe it was in some puff piece about Retexo, an analytics consultancy that doesn’t seem to have a lot of respect from practitioners, but is pretty good at generating press for themselves. I once had someone essentially clone my resume, but put their own name on the top, and who got work from a few different teams before the industry basically gave them the boot. Retexo has a great client list though, which is also nice.

Derby are… also kinda stinky and average, but part of that is the recent three-match swing against top of the table teams. I like them at home against QPR on -.25.

WBA v Millwall -.5 2.01/1.87 OR -.5 +101/-116
Bets: No Bets

Both of these teams let me down midweek, therefore both of them are in the doghouse. We know WBA are good, but sandbagging their metrics. We also think Millwall are good, but have a small talent deficit and haven’t regressed to where they should be in the table… yet.

I probably would have bet Millwall here at +.75. At a neutral .5, it’s treating WBA as only a tiny bit stronger, which is a lot of respect from the gambling markets on Millwall’s side.

Watford v Middlesboro .5 1.88/1.99 OR .5 -114/-101
Bets: No Bets

Watford are the “roll a die” team for this season’s Championship. The only thing you can count on from them is that you can’t count on them and have no idea what type of performance they will deliver on a game by game basis.

Eighth in the table? Sure!
Bottom six metrics? You betcha!

Boro are really good, and their shot metrics look more like an elite Premier League side than a Champ side. That said, the shot quality in attack is not great. I had been teasing that maybe Carrick didn’t know the importance of shot quality, but someone ITK got in touch with me and explained they definitely knew and worked on shot quality with his teams in years past. It’s just that this iteration of attacking players are what is affectionately referred to in the analytics world as “chuckers.”

They love volume shots from long range, and it can’t go in if you never take your shot, right?

If this line were 10 cents further along, I’d be priced in to a value bet on Boro. I also want to bet Under 2.75, but I don’t trusty Watford to not give up scads of easy goals to Boro.

Sheffield United v Luton -.5 1.92/1.94 OR -.5 -108/-106
Bets: Sheff United, Under 2.5

Luton’s metrics suggest they will be midtable by the end of the season. Sheffield United were one of my preseason picks to get promoted, and while they are not obviously dominant, they do seem to control almost every match.

United should be more than -.5 here. Easy bet.

Coventry v Sheffield Weds -.5 1.93/1.93 OR -.5 -107/-107
Bets: Coventry -.5

Coventry are like edge of the playoffs good this season. Again. This assumes some health on their part and not an endless series of bad/unlucky/mistake-riddled matches in their future.

Weds did nothing against Bristol City midweek. 7 shots with an average shot quality of under 3%. At -.5 neutral, this is an easy bet on Covs for me. Which they will invariably lose outright, because that’s how the season has gone for both of us so far.

Swansea v Stoke
Bets: Under 2.5

Are Swansea good? No.
Are Stoke good? Also no.
Do we want to bet this handicap? We do not.

But it’s Swansea… do we want to bet their total?
Is that total 2.5 or above? Yes, yes it is.

There are some teams that both want to and are capable of keeping things boring, and I’ll happily ride that wave until they take it away from me.

Bristol City v Cardiff
Bets: No Bets

Bristol City have metrics that lean toward the good side of the league table. Cardiff have a new head coach and put up an actual, honest-to-god victory against a solid Millwall side with a goal from my OG from League Two days, Perry Ng.

If this was three weeks ago, we’d happily bet Bristol City. If they scored more goals regularly, we’d also probably bet City here. As it is, -.75 is too high to get involved without being really down on Cardiff.

Market-Implied Numbers for this week.