Variance Betting - MLS Weekend 08Jul2025

Fucking FINALLY some wins in midweek. I was beginning to despair a little. (Midseason despair is totally normal.)

MLS
SATURDAY
Columbus Crew v D.C. United -1.5 1.98/1.89 OR -1.5 -102/-112
Bets: DC +1.5

You know that thing where professional gamblers bet on bad teams regularly because that’s where the value is? It looks like we’re both DC AND Toronto fans lately.

CF Montreal v Chicago Fire +.25 1.81/2.06 OR +.25 -124/+106
Bets: No Bets

We have a Chicago lean on this if you are feeling spicy.

Atlanta United v Charlotte FC -.25 1.83/2.04 OR -.25 -121/+104
Bets:

New York Red Bulls v Inter Miami Pick’Em (0) 2.03/1.83 OR Pick’Em (0) +103/-120
Bets: No Bets

This line is fine, but if you’re going to lean and Miami is playing a strong 11, you know which way the wind is blowing.

UPDATE: This line moved a ton overnight and is now Inter +.25. My GUESS is that is lineup news.

New England Revolution v Orlando City 0 2.07/1.82
Bets: Orlando 0

Orlando is on a bad run of form, but a couple of their results have been unlucky. They’re a better team than the Revs and I like the pick ‘em odds. Orlando bet.

Atlanta United vs. Charlotte FC -0.25 at 1.96/+0.25 at 1.91
Bets: No Bet

Good line, no bet.

FC Dallas v St Louis City SC -.25 1.82/2.05 OR -.25 -123/+105
Bets: Dallas -.25

Two teams coming off surprisingly decent midweek performances. Dallas is still bad, but St. Louis is worse, by enough to lay some money on it. Dallas bet.

Nashville SC v Toronto FC -1.25 1.95/1.90 OR -1.25 -105/-111
Bets: No Bets

So Nashville are actually good enough to make this line on the money. Which is weird.

Sporting Kansas City v New York City Pick’Em (0) 2.00/1.85 OR Pick’Em (0) +100/-117
Bets: NYCFC 0

NYCFC are a roller-coaster team that never feels great to bet on, but Sporting are consistently bad, losing the xG by a lot even when they scrape decent results. This line is very nice to them. NYC bet.

Seattle Sounders v San Jose Earthquakes -.75 1.98/1.88 OR -.75 -102/-114
Bets: No Bet

Houston Dynamo v Philadelphia Union -.25 2.09/1.79 OR -.25 +109/-127
Bets: Philly +.25

I’m guessing the line got an adjustment for road teams playing in the Texas heat in the summer? Understandable, but Philly is good and Houston is not. Dynamo starting DM Brooklyn Raines is suspended. The top of the table side having a + next to their name is shocking here. Philly bet.

Real Salt Lake v FC Cincinnati -.25 1.96/1.89 OR -.25 -104/-112
Bets: No Bets

San Diego FC v Vancouver Whitecaps -.5 1.84/2.02 OR -.5 -119/+102
Bets: Vancouver +.5

Our recurring themes coming together: San Diego’s odds have not caught up with their starting striker departing and Vancouver are undervalued. You already know. Whitecaps bet.

Los Angeles FC v Los Angeles Galaxy -1.0 1.83/2.03 OR -1.0 -120/+103
Bets: No Bets

Good line, no bet, but watch this game because El Trafico is always a good time.

Portland Timbers v Minnesota United Pick’Em (0) 1.84/2.02 OR Pick’Em (0) -119/+102
Bets: No Bets

Not enough value for a bet on this end, but lean Minnesota for the spicier among you.