We haven't even reached Peak Set Pieces yet

Welcome to the Friday grab bag, we’ve got some pretty brief analysis up top before we get into the recurring stuff. I’m going to keep it very simple for you.

Here’s Burnley’s defensive radar. Please pay close attention to the “set piece xG conceded” part.

Here’s Arsenal’s attacking radar. Please pay close attention to the “set piece xG part.”

Lmao.

There’s been a lot of discourse about whether or not the increased emphasis on set pieces in the Premier League is bad for the game, and because Arsenal are the best team at them, they’ve been the centerpiece of the debate. This is probably going to get worse after the Gunners score multiple set piece goals on Burnley this weekend.

My personal opinion: I do not think anything needs to be done to free kicks and corners, but the proposed throw-in clock and towel bans are a good idea.

Over on Variance Betting, Ted’s got quite a few bets on the Premier League and Championship this weekend. By far the most surprising one to me was that he thought Nottingham Forest was good value at home against Manchester United.

In total, Ted had 4 bets on the Prem and 7 on the Championship this weekend. This upcoming week is also a Champions League week, so if you’d like to see the bets for that, you can upgrade to premium here.

On the podcast, Pat and Hayden got into some of the best signings of the summer. Adrien Truffert replacing Milos Kerkez at Bournemouth for half the money, in particular, is one that’s worked out absolutely perfect.

We also have a Patreon now with bonus podcast content. Pat and Hayden’s B-roll chat is up, and this week’s Patreon exclusive pod focuses on Florian Wirtz. What has the much maligned Liverpool man actually done well, and will he ever live up to his price tag?

The FPL corner

The FPL experts who make content or vote in FPL Mate’s polls aren’t fully dumping Tijjani Reinders yet, but there’s been a slow but steady trend to move away from the Manchester City midfielder over the past couple weeks. And it’s certainly true that he hasn’t been performing that well.

Last season, Reijnders scored 10 non-penalty goals from central midfield for AC Milan. This year, his only goal has come on MD1, against last-placed Wolves. He’s getting an OK volume of shots for a CM, but certainly nothing that suggests he’s going to be able to score 10 goals this year.

His OP xG assisted p90 numbers are also a bit misleading and propped up by a couple of really high value passes. His volume of key passes is extremely low, good for about 1 per game so far this season.

I’m still rolling with Reijnders in my team. Long-time readers will probably find this funny, as I’m very much on record as being a Reijnders hater who thought he was a bad signing for City. But most of that is about his ball progression and out of possession work against good opponents; I expected Reijnders to farm goals and assists against the bottom half of the table. The next three fixtures — Bournemouth, Liverpool and Newcastle — aren’t great for him, but he’s got some great opportunities after that.

UNLESS. He’s booted out of the lineup for Rayan Cherki.

This radar is based on 3 sub appearances and should not be taken as an indicator that Cherki can sustain that level of production. It is mostly here because it looks cool. It is the tiniest of tiny samples. However, if he continues to do that in 2 or 3 more short cameos, eventually he’s just going to make the starting lineup.

I don’t think you need to panic sell Reijnders yet, but I’d keep an eye on how the Cherki situation develops. He might be the City midfielder to start rolling with soon, or if him and Reijnders turns into a true rotation, they might both become unplayable.

Games we’re watching

RB Leipzig vs. VfB Stuttgart — This is genuinely much more interesting than the higher profile Bundesliga game of the weekend. Leipzig’s rebuild has gone incredibly, with youngster Yan Diomande tearing it up. Stuttgart are just behind them in the table, as Angelo Stiller continues to look like one of the world’s best midfielders.

Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Bilbao — Always a really intense local rivalry, though Sociedad are shockingly bad so far this season.

PSG vs. Nice — Nice started the season poorly, but have won 3 in a row. It’s always worth flipping on the PSG game just to see cool players do cool stuff.

Manchester City vs. Bournemouth — Are these the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the Premier League? I don’t think I’m trolling?

AC Milan vs. AS Roma — These two have been built more on strong defensive foundations than anything else this year, so I can’t predict fireworks, but it’s two big clubs that are very much in the Scudetto fight.

Stuff we’re reading

Michael Caley at Expecting Goals released his new team ratings system with good explanations of the how and why. Premier League teams are here and continental Europe is here.

Colin Millar at The Athletic covered Seattle Reign manager Laura Harvey saying she played a back 5 because ChatGPT told her to. Is society cooked? Is it Joever?

Ryan O’Hanlon at ESPN says we already know Arsenal is going to win the Premier League, and I’m inclined to agree with him.

Llew Davies at Scouted profiles Said El Mala, the FC Köln winger you’ll be hearing a lot about if you’re a Football Manager 26 player.

Dharnish Iqbal at Total Football Analysis dives into Manu Kone’s breakout season at Roma.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football on the death of Pep Guardiola’s possession football being embraced by… Pep Guardiola.

Ali Tweedale at Opta Analyst thinks everyone should stop whining about set pieces.

Sid Lowe at The Guardian interviews Espanyol manager Manolo Gonzalez, who apparently used to be a bus driver.

Josh Williams at Distance Covered, who is absolutely not a crazy reactionary, is genuinely asking if Liverpool should sack Arne Slot. If they can’t beat a meh Aston Villa at home…

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.