We’re currently in bi-weekly digest mode at the newsletter because we’re hard at work on the Premier League previews. For the second year in a row, we’re going to have detailed, in-depth breakdowns of every single team, and you can purchase them here.
If you didn’t buy last year’s preview and want to know what you’re getting before you buy, we’ve unlocked last season’s Manchester City piece for you to check out. Every single team, from Arsenal to Hull City, will be covered with that same level of detail.
Thanks for subscribing!
The preview that I’m most looking forward to reading the draft of next week is the one on Hull City, who achieved promotion through an absolute dream playoff run and ridiculous set of circumstances. They’re heading to the Premier League despite finishing 7 points back of the playoff teams above them and having a negative xG differential last season.
I don’t think I am being disrespectful by saying that they face an extremely difficult challenge to avoid relegation. The bookies have them as extremely heavy favorites to go down, and The Analytics Community™ thinks the Tigers have a chance to challenge 05-06 Sunderland and 07-08 Derby’s all-time poor seasons.
Given how daunting the challenge in front of them is, there’s a question about how much money Hull should spend, and how much they should save for a rainy day. Thus far, they seem to be taking a very sensible approach to this season. They’ve made 4 budget signings, with total transfer fees of a combined £7.5m. The most notable among them is Japanese veteran Hidemasa Morita, who joins from Sporting Lisbon on a free. He looks like a decent all-around rotation CM.
This week, Hull are being linked to transfers that are going to cost them a bit more money, but for young players who are likely to be excellent in the Championship or sellable for at least the price Hull paid for them.
First up is Mohamed-Ali Cho, a French youth international attacker who has stalled out a bit in recent years. After a breakout age 18 campaign for Angers, he moved to Real Sociedad for €15m, and struggled in Spain. He’s been a bit better over the last two seasons for Nice, but he hasn’t found a defined role yet.
Cho is a versatile attacker who can play on the wing or up top in a variety of formations, though he’s yet to truly excel at any of them. But he’s still just 22 years old, and there are no massive red flags in this profile. At a £17m price point in the current market, it’s a totally reasonable investment for Hull.
An even smarter investment might be 19-year-old center back Lucas Herrington, who recently played for Australia at the World Cup. He’s having a breakout season in MLS for the Colorado Rapids, where he’s putting his 6’4” (193cm) height and jumping ability to good use.
While Herrington’s passing value doesn’t look good, his completion percentage is very high. A lot of why he keeps it so simple is a tactical choice, though passing range and vision is clearly something he needs to develop to establish himself as a Premier League quality player. In any event, this is an outstanding profile for a 19-year-old center back, and at a similar price point to Cho, this is an even better deal.
Buying young players under £20m feels like a very good use of Hull’s money. It is, to some degree, acceptance that it does not make sense to mortgage the future in an attempt to chase staying up. But it should keep them on stable financial and footballing footing going forward, and give them an excellent chance to yo-yo, much like Ipswich have.
More transfer rumours
It’s time for YOUR daily dose of Tottenham slop. Here’s a report that they’re interested in Victor Osimhen, which would be awesome. I don’t think Spurs are willing to pay anyone the kind of wages he’d demand, but he’d still be an outstanding signing.
And here’s another about Cody Gakpo, who I don’t think Liverpool actually want to sell. Maybe if they sign Barcola and the Gakpo price is bananas? Maybe?
Following the appointment of Alvaro Arbeloa, Fulham are bringing in a couple of their coach’s old players. While I don’t generally love that recruitment strategy, Gonzalo Garcia and Cesar Palacios are talented players who might not have come to Fulham otherwise. £34m for someone with Garcia’s production and £8m for the 18-year-old Palacios feel like pretty solid moves.
Who knows what to believe in the Bruno Guimaraes saga at this point, but The Ornacle says a deal is close. It’s going to cost Arsenal about £80m. That is a lot of money for a 28-year-old.
In other Arsenal news, Christian Norgaard is expected to head to Everton, and Ethan Nwaneri might be in line for a £35m move to RB Leipzig with a buy-back clause. The latter move there feels like a sensible one for all parties?
And in other Everton news, they’re interested in Christian Kofane, a young striker from Bayer Leverkusen. I imagine he’d be extremely expensive by Everton standards, given that he has an excellent physical skillset and is producing at such a young age. Bundesliga and sub effect inflation warnings on this, but when a 20-year-old who’s big and fast can do this, he’s a very talented player. It’s the kind of guy a club at Everton’s level should take a risk on.
After getting shut out of a couple of midfield targets, Newcastle have apparently turned their attention to Lucas Nmecha. They have apparently been quoted €120m for him. I am confident they will not be paying that.
Chelsea are selling Trevoh Chalobah to Como, which feels like a very good deal for all parties. He’s had a very up-and-down career with the Blues and probably wasn’t going to be first choice this season. He gets to play Champions League football this season. Como get an early prime, experienced defender for a reasonable price.
We don’t get to do SPFL updates here very often, but I did want to highlight Rangers signing Daisuke Yokota for about £3m. This looks like a very good playmaking winger for Rangers at that price. Two thumbs up.
If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.
