What to watch for in the World Cup qualification play-offs

A 48-team World Cup was always going to require a new qualifying process, and in this international window we’re down to the final play-off matches to sort the last six places at this summer’s tournament. UEFA still has 16 teams to sort through, while the rest of the world’s confederations have a team or two still vying to qualify.

Inter-confederation play-offs

Two teams from CONCACAF are joining one team each from all the other confederations (except UEFA) for the inter-confederation play-offs in Mexico. Two spots are up for grabs through this route, meaning the six participants have been split into two pathways.

(New Caledonia vs Jamaica) vs DR Congo

The first pathway is perhaps the clearest of the lot in terms of the ranking hierarchy of teams.

World #150 New Caledonia are undoubtedly the least likely to qualify among all participants in this window, as they’ll have to get through two hugely stronger opponents. Nevertheless, this will be a historic occasion for them as it is the closest they’ve ever come to the World Cup after benefitting from the expanded format, which finally awards Oceania one direct spot alongside a play-off ticket. New Zealand pretty much have the former on lock, but this will be the experience of a lifetime for the New Calendonian squad.

Jamaica should comfortably get past them, so it will all come down to their match against DR Congo. The Reggae Boyz are no longer coached by Steve McClaren as he resigned after failing to lead them straight to the World Cup. Rudolph Speid has been appointed as interim after nearly a decade in charge of local club Cavalier FC.

Jamaica’s only World Cup appearance came in 1998, so the experienced core including the likes of Leon Bailey, captain Andre Blake and Bobby De Cordova-Reid will be looking to seal their debut at the world’s biggest stage. Speid has a decent squad overall as well thanks in no small part to the English diaspora he has been able to draw from.

Continuity is the name of the game for DR Congo, who have stuck with Sébastien Desabre since the end of the last World Cup qualifying cycle. The Frenchman coaches a solid team and asks them to stay disciplined in a mid-block. He has a good few options in midfield and attack, so he’ll count on a star forward like Yoane Wissa or emerging talent like Nathanaël Mbuku to help lead DR Congo to their first World Cup in their current guise.

(Bolivia vs Suriname) vs Iraq

The second pathway is way tougher to call, not least due to the heap of complications faced by the seeded team.

Iraq’s preparations before their last shot at ending a four-decade World Cup absence have been beyond spoiled by the war around the Persian Gulf, which left the majority of the squad stranded in Baghdad due to visa issues and airspace closures (while head coach Graham Arnold was similarly stuck in the UAE). The Iraqi FA asked FIFA to postpone this fixture, but were met with a refusal from the Peace Prize awarders who instead suggested an incredibly long and equally perilous road trip to Istanbul. Eventually, Iraq managed to work a way out by flying in a private jet from Jordan.

The Lions of Mesopotamia will have to do their best to put all of that behind them against either Bolivia or aspiring debutantes Suriname. La Verde are aiming to reach their first World Cup since USA 1994 after moving their CONMEBOL qualification matches to one of the world’s highest football stadiums in El Alto. They can’t engage in any more altitude merchantry, though, so they’ll have to prove their mettle closer to sea level at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe. 39-year-old Carlos Lampe will be key in goal, while the Vaca brothers Ramiro and Ervin will have a big job to do in midfield, but tricky young winger Miguel Terceros is the one to watch for me.

Much like Jamaica, Suriname are also going into the play-offs with a new coach after Stanley Menzo’s resignation. Dutchman Henk ten Cate takes charge of a squad largely comprised of Dutch-born players, including Leeds United striker Joël Piroe, who has received his very first call-up after completing the paperwork to represent Suriname.

UEFA second round

There will be a lot more action in Europe as 12 matches will help decide the continent’s last four representatives. 16 teams are still in contention owing to their results in either the first round of qualifiers or the Nations League.

(Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina) vs (Italy vs Northern Ireland)

Italy’s men have appeared in more cricket World Cups than football World Cups over the last decade. The pressure on Gli Azzurri to deliver clearly is huge, and I’m not the most sold on Gennaro Gattuso’s coaching for such games against relatively weaker opposition. Still, they will hope that their superior squad quality can finally help get the job done.

Opponents Northern Ireland have the lowest odds of making a World Cup return after four decades in this bracket, though Michael O'Neill’s side have the ability to frustrate big teams as they demonstrated against Germany during a 1-0 loss back in October. Wales, meanwhile, have a shot at appearing in consecutive World Cups for the first time. Bosnia and Herzegovina will hope to give 40-year-old Edin Džeko — one of the very few squad members (alongside ex-Arsenal defender Sead Kolašinac) who was around for the nation’s World Cup debut in 2014 — a dream send-off.

(Ukraine vs Sweden) vs (Poland vs Albania)

Serhiy Rebrov will aim to lead Ukraine to their first World Cup in two decades using a balanced squad that mixes domestically-based players with international stars of different age ranges. The likes of Heorhiy Sudakov, goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin and Illia Zabarnyi are all no older than 24, while the more experienced Roman Yaremchuk or Viktor Tsyhankov could well also make telling contributions. A lot will ride on Viktor Gyökeres for Graham Potter’s Sweden (particularly given the manager’s decision to leave Alexander Isak out of the squad), though someone like Anthony Elanga can provide good support.

Polish star striker Robert Lewandowski effectively got new head coach Jan Urban the job, since his falling out with predecessor Michał Probierz ultimately led to a change in the dugout. Albania, on the other hand, have been happy with Sylvinho’s work since 2023, and will certainly be over the moon if his solid brand of football leads them to a World Cup debut.

(Türkiye vs Romania) vs (Slovakia vs Kosovo)

Vincenzo Montella is the man tasked with leading Türkiye to their first World Cup since 2006, and he has certainly developed a team that’s quite fun to watch. Their fluidity is particularly eye-catching as players like Hakan Çalhanoğlu have the freedom to drift around and make things happen, but I’m even more excited to watch what young attacking technicians Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız can do on this big stage.

80-year-old Mircea Lucescu will have vivid memories of all four of Romania’s previous World Cup appearances, and as the oldest active international football coach will hope to create fresh ones of a fifth. Potential opponents include Kosovo, the newest UEFA member who are only in their third World Cup qualification cycle (yet nevertheless have a quality squad led by big striker Vedat Muriqi) and a Slovakia side that has developed its possession-play well under Francesco Calzona. 20-year-old Leo Sauer became a personal favourite of mine after starring in their historic 2-0 win over Germany, so I’ll be keeping a close eye on him.

(Czechia vs Ireland) vs (Denmark vs North Macedonia)

Brian Riemer’s Denmark fell short against Scotland in their group, but are still in with a decent shot as the highest-ranked team in this path by some margin. They’ll definitely be big favourites against challengers North Macedonia, who only have one major tournament appearance under their belt from Euro 2020. Goalkeeper Stole Dimitrievski will surely have a big role to play if his side are to create history.

Ireland, meanwhile, have already enjoyed something of a historic moment as Troy Parrott’s last-minute, hat-trick-completing winner against Hungary brought them a step closer to a first men’s World Cup since 2002. The ex-Spurs striker has been doing quite well for himself in the Eredivisie, so Irish hopes will continue to rest heavily on him.

Czechia last featured at the 2006 World Cup, when Miroslav Koubek was starting to make a name for himself as a coach in domestic circles. The 74-year-old got the senior national team job at long last in December 2025, so his very first task is a huge one. He’ll count on the experience of the likes of Tomáš Souček, Patrik Schick and Vladimír Coufal across the field.

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