Brentford host a wounded Liverpool this weekend, and head into the match as slight favorites, both in betting markets and among vibes watchers who don’t gamble. The Bees are looking like legit Champions League contenders with a +0.37 xG difference per 90 through 6 games.

Their defense isn’t what’s doing it, at least not yet. Last season, they were a slightly above mid defensive unit, and that’s still the case. They’re playing a bit differently, pressing higher and conceding some higher value shots to go along with the benefits of that style, but the overall results have been similar.

But they are getting some plus goalkeeping out of Caoimhin Kelleher. This isn’t a big enough sample to say he’s leveled up — 27 shots on target just isn’t very many — but he’s performing well against what he’s faced, and he’s been one of the league’s best shot stoppers on a rate basis so far this season.

Kristoffer Ajer is also playing a bit differently, and it’s interesting. With the team pressing higher, his role is a little different. He’s getting basically no tackle and interception volume — which is why his tackle/dp% looks so bad, it’s a miniscule sample — but the defensive plays he does make have been extremely high value. He’s also carrying out of buildup more effectively.

And that leads into the attack, which is much improved, despite star striker Igor Thiago not scoring like he was last season. Brentford’s higher pressing tactics have led to more shots and more xG.

I think this is more of a macro, team-wide thing than anything we can put on individual player performances, but I do want to highlight how well Jaidon Anthony is playing. He was sneaky productive for a very bad Burnley side last year, and looks like an extremely astute signing for the Bees. He’s been the team’s leader in xG + xA p90, and will probably get leaned on even more heavily if Kevin Schade is out this week.

It’ll be interesting to see if Brentford continue to be a more aggressive high pressing team than they were last season against Liverpool, or if they change tactics a bit against “bigger” teams. Given Liverpool’s injury issues in attack, I’d love to see the Bees fearlessly take it to them.

This week on Variance Betting, Ted has 6 bets on the Premier League, 5 on the Championship, and 3 on MLS. Last week’s bet against conventional wisdom paid off, with Leeds covering at Arsenal. This week, Ted likes Everton against Chelsea for similar reasons — regardless of what you think of the teams, the numbers on the spread just don’t add up.

Since September, Variance Betting is +21 units from EPL, EFL, Champions League and MLS betting, including some half-bets on early season stuff before we had great numbers. The totals look like this:

Hold: $194,115/$837,900
ROI: +97.1% return on a 200K bankroll
Record: 51 of 74 on bets

Of course, that’s a crazy hot run. But Variance Betting has been consistently profitable throughout its existence, even through unlucky runs, because there are smart principles we stick to instead of chasing gut feels. If you’re interested in football betting and want to learn how to do it smarter, sign up for Variance Betting here.

First up: As mentioned above, the Liverpool trio of Dominic Szoboszlai, Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo are all gametime decisions. You should consider selling them if you have them. Similarly, Kevin Schade of Brentford is in a ton of FPL teams, and no timeline has been given for his recovery from a shoulder injury. I’m just holding him on the bench this week with plenty of my other players having good fixtures, but I’m prepared to sell next week if I have to.

The hot FPL player of the minute appears to be Maxim De Cuyper, who’s the most transferred player in the game this week among the larger player base, and he’s up to 52% ownership in FPL Mate’s 100 experts poll too. Often, I’ll tell you why I think you should have some caution around the big meta pick in the game, but this one’s just obviously very good.

De Cuyper almost exclusively played left back last season, but with Brighton having a bit of an injury crisis, he’s moved up to left wing. He’s getting involved in tons of scoring and assisting chances for one of the best attacks in the league, but is still eligible as a defender. You should put this guy in your FPL team.

But if you have De Cuyper, you probably want to balance him out with some DefCon monsters for some consistent, reliable scoring. I think that Tarik Muharemovic and Antonio Silva are way undervalued by the player base at the moment. Sven Botman and Chris Richards probably are too, but their teams have been awful to start the season, so they’re quite a bit riskier.

If you’re wondering who might balance DefCon with clean sheet potential, Solio has a very helpful tool for that, based on a betting market model. I’m rolling the dice on Botman, and I’d stay away from the Hull, Ipswich, Palace, Forest, and Coventry defenders for a little bit until we get some more info. Everton are also hitting a tough run of fixtures, so if you’re a James Tarkowski owner, it might be a good time to sell out of him.

Curious Lynx Games have launched their Kickstarter campaigns for their brand new card game “Which Witch?”

You’ve gathered to celebrate the equinox, and as dusk settles, the competition begins. You work at your cauldron, beseeching ancient powers to imbue your magics, to bind mystic familiars to you, and to hex your competitors. Can you outwit and outwitch your coven?

A competitive card game where you’ll brew potions, call on mythical powers, and try to get one over on your fellow witches.

You’ll need a bit of strategy, a bit of cunning, and maybe a well-timed hex to come out on top.

So gather your friends, pick your powers, and see who rules the coven! Check out their Kickstarter page and discover more!

The best place to find listings for your country is probably LiveSoccerTV.

Everton vs. Chelsea — The most interesting PL fixture to me, as I do not know how to feel about either of these teams. Chelsea have some elite moments, but meh underlying numbers. Everton don’t look like a true top 5 contender to my eyes, but their numbers suggest they’re legit.

Real Betis vs. Barcelona — No way this game doesn’t have 4+ goals and at least one banger. The most fun teams in the world.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Freiburg — It’s been an incredible start for Freiburg, who are top of the Bundesliga table, but this is a stiff test.

Lazio vs. Juventus — Both these fanbases seem pretty pissed with the state of things at their teams, but it’s still a big and very potentially good game.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.