Who is the Premier League player of the year?

I don’t think this Premier League season has been lacking in quality by any means, but it has lacked for an obvious standout star. Some of the league’s best players are not putting up big goal and assist numbers, have slumped in the second half, or have even switched teams.

There are a lot of guys you can make a case for deserving the player of the year award, so here’s a look at all of them, broken out into some arbitrary tiers.

The favorites: Declan Rice — Arsenal

Currently the favorite of the betting markets, and I can’t imagine anyone would be too upset if Declan Rice cleaned up during award season. It’s rare to see a box-to-box No. 8 who doesn’t rack up a ton of goals and assists contend for individual awards, but he’s helped by the best team in the Premier League lacking a standout star in that department.

Rice leads all players with over 1500 Premier League minutes in StatsBomb’s OBV metric on a per-90 basis, providing value to his team in a variety of ways. He’s probably most lauded for his ball progression, but he’s been a plus defender, shooter and assister as well. This is the profile of an excellent all-around midfielder.

But playing on a team with other good set piece takers has prevented Rice from racking up even better assist numbers, and I think that mean the award might go to…

Bruno Fernandes — Manchester United

In his age 31 season, Bruno has transformed from a box crasher and volume shooter into a more deep-lying midfielder, and he’s adjusted to the role brilliantly. Even through coaching and system changes, he’s been the same outstanding ball progressor.

But the big reason why Bruno could snatch the award from Rice is his insane volume of assists, particularly from set pieces. He’s set up an outrageous 103 shots so far this season, racking up 18 assists. They’re only from 9.72 xG assisted, suggesting a little bit of luck, but quite a bit more quality of set piece delivery.

I think Rice is the better all-around footballer, but I have a hard time believing that a midfielder with 18 assists is going to lose an individual award to one with 5.

Better than the narrative: Erling Haaland — Manchester City

Once the obvious runaway winner of this award, Haaland has gone ice cold in front of goal over the 2nd half of the season. Here’s his shots since January. It hurts.

But Haaland’s first half was historic levels of good, and his second half has still been above average for a Premier League striker. There aren’t a lot of guys getting 0.37 xG per 90. He’s not been that bad. I still think he’s been the 3rd best player in the league.

Bukayo Saka — Arsenal

I know it’s a bit of a strawman without finding several takes to link you, but there’s been a Narrative that Bukayo Saka has been disappointing this season. And while the goal and assist numbers have not been good enough to win an individual award or help your fantasy team, I completely reject the idea that this is a disappointing player.

This is one of the best players in the world. This is a player making very positive contributions to Arsenal being in 1st place. If you think that he has been bad or should not start for England at the World Cup, you are dumb and wrong.

Dark horses: Antoine Semenyo — Manchester City/Bournemouth

14 non-penalty goals as a winger should get you some award consideration, especially when you score 9 of them in half a season on an average Bournemouth side. I don’t think his production in any other area has been good or consistent enough for him to win, but if City beats Arsenal this weekend we could be having some very different conversations.

Marcos Senesi — Bournemouth

His former teammate has been the best passing center back in the Premier League this year. Bournemouth’s attack starts with the line-breaking passes and long balls of Marcos Senesi, who’s also farming defensive action stats thanks to their style of play. You should check out this more detailed read on his game from Mohamed.

Emi Martinez — Aston Villa

Villa sit 4th in the league with a +5 goal differential and a negative xG differential. A big part of why they’re getting away with this is that they have the best goalkeeper in the Premier League. In a season without a standout attacking star on one of the best teams, Martinez seriously deserves PoY consideration.

Gabriel — Arsenal

Arsenal’s mastery of set pieces has been the biggest storyline of the season, and their biggest weapon on them has been Gabriel. I don’t think that 3 goals and 2 assists from set plays is enough output for me to think he’s the player of the year over actual attackers or Rice, but narratives are a powerful thing. He’s also a pretty good defender.

Stop it, get some help: David Raya — Arsenal

As the goalkeeper for the team with the best defensive record in the league, Raya is getting some love in the betting markets. He should not be; he has been almost exactly average.

Morgan Rogers — Aston Villa

Villa’s most productive attacking player is also a favorite of the England manager and likely to get on the pitch a lot this summer. He’s regularly been linked to a potential £80m+ transfer to one of the richer clubs in England. He’s scores amazing highlight reel bangers.

And yet, Morgan Rogers is just OK. He’s going to get more votes than he should.

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