Why PSG are in serious trouble

The new Champions League format is extremely favorable to the richest clubs in Europe, relative to the old one. Before, a top seed that got an unlucky draw and had a couple of bad games might find themselves completely out of the competition. Now, they’ve just got to finish 24th in a league table of 36 to get a second chance.

One of the big clubs that will be surprisingly scrapping to get that second chance is Paris Saint-Germain, who find themselves in a bit of a pickle after a 2-1 loss to Atlético Madrid on Wednesday. They’re 25th in the table with 4 points from 4 games, and they’ve got Bayern Munich up next on their schedule. Manchester City also show up on the fixture list in January.

Realistically, PSG are going to need 6 points out of 6 against Salzburg and Stuttgart, then avoid defeat against one of the two big dogs just to scrape a playoff spot. They’ll need 4 wins out of 4 to have a shot at 8th and a bye to the Round of 16.

So, how the heck is PSG blowing it so badly?

First off, they got kind of unlucky

There’s plenty that PSG can genuinely fix about their play, but also, sometimes ball doesn’t bounce right. They were the better team than Atléti on Wednesday, but kicked some shots too close to Jan Oblak’s hands, and Atléti converted the only shots they created.

Football Manager players will know this as “getting FM’d,” but I think Diego Simeone’s teams have done this to enough opponents in real life that we should call it Getting Atléti’d.

Their xG per shot sucks

There are lots of things about PSG’s attack that looks great, but their biggest problem is that they’re making poor shooting decisions, or lacking someone to get into the good shooting positions. This xG per shot is stinky.

A look at the shot map produces a very quick reaction of “well, there’s your problem.” PSG has a good number of shots from the edge of the 6-yard box, with a lot of them coming from set pieces or through balls into the feet of right winger Ousmane Dembele and central midfielder Warren Zaïre-Emery. But they’re not getting the same production off the left side, and there’s a big black hole between the edge of the 6 and the edge of the 18-yard box.

An injury to starting striker Gonçalo Ramos has forced PSG into a system revolving around false 9 Marco Asensio, with wingers and central midfielders making runs into the box as he drops off and tries to draw defenders out of the box. It’s produced some nice goals, but PSG’s lack of shots from inside the box between 6 and 18 yards where you’d expect to see a traditional center forward producing good shot volume.

If you’re going to play without a real striker, your wingers and central midfielders all need to be making huge shooting contributions. That isn’t happening. Speaking of…

Bradley Barcola isn’t delivering

Barcola has been the star of PSG’s domestic campaign, and he leads Ligue 1 with 8 goals in that competition. In Champions League, he’s failed to capitalize on a system that’s designed to get him a lot of shots and make him the primary goal-scorer off the left wing.

Obviously 1. this is a tiny sample and is less indicative of his quality than 3000 minutes in Ligue 1 will be, 2. he’s still an extremely talented 22-year-old. But he hasn’t delivered, and he’s the guy who has to be the shot monster. It’s not happening.

Donnarumma’s had a couple shockers

Having a quality defense and positive xG difference can only take you so far when your goalkeeper is a sieve. Gianluigi Donnarumma has a big reputation after debuting for AC Milan and Italy at 16 years old, and PSG pays him a pretty massive wage, but he’s not getting it done at the moment.

The highlights (UK version, US version) don’t flatter him, and neither do the stats. His shot stopping has been poor.

Over the course of a long season, you could probably say that PSG will regress to the mean, start performing to their xG differential, and start racking up points. Over 38 games, Barcola will start firing again, Donnarumma will close up the holes in his torso, and everything will be fine. But PSG don’t have that luxury in this scenario. They just need at least 7 points from 4 very difficult games. —KM

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