Why we're so high on Brighton this year

The very top of the Premier League table as predicted by The Transfer Flow’s contributors was pretty standard. We picked the top four to finish in the exact same order as last season. But then we deviate from the conventional wisdom considerably: Brighton predicted 5th.

When I submitted my picks with Brighton in 6th, I thought I was going to be higher on them than most of my colleagues. Turns out, 4 of them picked the Seagulls to finish even higher than I did. You’ll have to check out Neel’s preview for all the details on what makes them so promising, but I thought I’d talk about a few of the things we love about them here on the free newsletter ahead of their opening weekend fixture against Fulham.

1. The defense is trending in the right direction

Brighton got off to a bit of a rocky start under young manager Fabian Hürzeler, but around December, the defense started improving drastically. This came with decreased risk going forward as well; their attack was not great as they settled into a more disciplined shape. But in the spring, Brighton figured it all out, getting their attack back to its best without sacrificing anything at the back.

This trendline represents a rolling 10 game xG average. I’m not worried about the minor downturn in form over the last 3 games; this happened after Brighton were basically locked into 8th with little possibility of moving up or down.

Only one member of the back line departed this summer, Pervis Estupinan. His replacement, Maxim De Cuyper, looks like-for-like. Veteran Olivier Boscagli and youngster Diego Coppola have joined to give them more depth at center back, and they’ve managed to hold onto DM Carlos Baleba and CB Jan Paul van Hecke so far in the transfer market.

2. Yankuba Minteh is a superstar in the making

Long-time subscribers will probably be sick of the Minteh posting. He was mentioned by Ted several times as top young prospect in the early days of this newsletter, even before I joined or Brighton bought him. But he lived up to the hype last season, maintaining his dribbling and assisting productivity while moving up to a much harder league. His xG went down, but he didn’t take poor shots, and even increased his shot OBV per 90.

Entering his early prime years with a season of Premier League football under his belt, Minteh looks set to start racking up goals and assists. He contributed to 10 goals in 2000 minutes last year, and I’m expecting to see that to jump up to around 15 if he stays healthy.

3. Give it to the big man and let him dominate

He might take half a season to settle in, but I’m really looking forward to seeing the box-crashing capabilities of Charalampos Kostoulas. He’s mostly played as a No. 10, but has some qualities that suggest he could turn into either an 8 or a striker, depending on how his game develops.

He’s tall and has major hops and wins a ton of headers. Kostoulas might only be 18, but this is a man’s shot chart.

More experienced players will probably have to be the ones replacing Joao Pedro’s contributions early in the season, but I think we’ll be seeing some headed goals from Kostoulas by spring.

Thanks to everyone who’s subscribed to the gambling newsletter recently, which you can do here if you’re interested and haven’t yet. You won’t see individual game bets for the Premier League or Championship until we have 5 games of data to go off, since we like playing with an advantage a heck of a lot more than true gambles.

In the meantime, season outright bets for the Championship are here, and for the Premier League are here. We’re also betting on MLS until we’ve got the data for English league bets, and that newsletter will hit your inboxes later on Friday night.

If you’d like to see how we did last season and what we learned from it, you can read about that here.

Games we’re watching

As always, the best place to find times and listings for your country is LiveSoccerTV.

Rennes vs. Marseille — Ligue 1 starts with a game featuring a seriously retooled Marseille squad. I can’t imagine anyone challenges PSG at the top of the league, but this is probably the 2nd best squad.

Stuttgart vs. Bayern Munich — The Super Cup might be a glorified friendly, but I’ll watch these two teams play anytime.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal — Love to get a matchup between two properly Big Clubs to start the season.

Athletic Bilbao vs. Sevilla — Usually a match for the top 4 race, though Sevilla were terrible last season. I’ll enjoy some Williams Bros highlights regardless.

Stuff we’re reading

Ashwin Raman at Scouted argues that Savinho to Tottenham would be the biggest signing of the summer.

Kyle Boas at Tactics Journal makes the case for Tottenham mostly limiting their use of a back 3 to games against top opponents like the one against PSG, and playing with a 4 most of the time.

Leo Rutherford at Total Football Analysis profiles young center back Giovanni Leoni, who’s reportedly headed to Liverpool.

Ed Maylon and Matt Hughes at FootBiz report on the Premier League opposing overseas games, like La Liga and Serie A plan on pulling off this year.

Robbie Dunne at The Analyst digs into the odd transfer policies that let Spanish side Mirandes punch above their financial weight.

Jonathan Liew at The Guardian comments on the absurdity and the joy of the FPL community.

Pol Ballus at The Athletic wonders if Hansi Flick can recreate the same magic in a second season at Barcelona.

Jamie Kemp at La Pausa breaks down 12 youngsters in La Liga who could have breakout seasons.

—KM

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