Will Manchester United be brave enough to press City?

One of the big early season talking points in the Premier League is that Manchester United have improved quite a bit, but don’t yet have a lot to show for it. I think this is broadly true. They played even games with both Arsenal and Fulham, and were unlucky to come away from them with just 1 point. Their match with Burnley was made unnecessarily dramatic by some comedic errors, but got the result they deserved in the end.

The biggest source of early season attacking improvement from Man United has been that their press and counter-attacking off that press has been effective. They’re not being ultra aggressive — their 9.66 PPDA and 44.89m average distance from goal that they take defensive actions are both right on league average — but they’re setting up their pressing triggers and funneling teams into mistakes well.

As a result, they’re generating a very high volume of high press and counter-attacking shots.

But pulling this off against Manchester City is much easier said than done, especially if Rodri is fit and in the lineup. United has also not played against a City-like opponent that aims to dominate possession yet. It’s going to require more running, more exertion, and more likelihood of completely running out of fuel in the second half.

Whether United is able to be aggressive with their pressing and force turnovers is probably going to be the defining tactical aspect of this game.

Over on the podcast, the boys spent quite a bit more time on the Manchester Derby, and they think it’s going to be a pretty decisive game for Pep Guardiola.

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Over on the premium gambling newsletter, this is our last week making MLS bets. It’s been a very productive summer and it’ll be fun to detail exactly how well it’s gone in the next week or two. Starting next week, we’ll have 5 games of data in the Championship, so gambling content will focus on England again. The week after that, it’ll finally be time to bet on the Premier League.

The FPL corner

This week, the most transferred in player in FPL is Jack Grealish. Players were skeptical of how well a 30-year-old Grealish would fit into a defensive David Moyes team, but it’s going about as well as possible. He currently leads the Premier League with 4 assists.

But are you buying too late on Grealish? It’s complicated, the answer is both yes and no. Grealish’s 4 assists come from only 5 key passes and 1.32 xG assisted, a pretty outrageous overperformance.

However, he really has just been the best assisting threat in the entire Premier League from this tiny sample of 3 matchweeks. He leads the league in open play xG assisted, and he’s among the league’s elite in StatsBomb’s D&C and Pass OBV metrics.

The big fantasy concern with Grealish is that he gets basically no shots, and is unlikely to score many goals. That xG assisted number is going to come down to earth too, no one on a mid-table team has ever sustained output like that.

I think Grealish is likely to stay one of Everton’s best players and a contender for the Premier League assists crown, but I’m questioning the long-term fantasy value. There are a handful of guys at a similar price point who I’d expect to finish with more total goals + assists from now to the end of the season, like Antoine Semenyo and Ismaila Sarr, though those guys are a touch more expensive. He’s got use cases, but there’s a reason the experts aren’t as high on him as genpop.

Games we’re watching

For TV and streaming listings from your country, check out LiveSoccerTV.

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt — The debut of Bayer coach Kasper Hjulmand, who is expected to shift the team back towards the 3-4-3 they played under Xabi Alonso. I have no idea how good this team is right now. Frankfurt somehow look better without Ekitike.

Atlético Madrid vs. Villarreal — Two Champions League teams face off in La Liga, though Atléti haven’t played like it so far this year. Alarm bells are going to be ringing if they fail to win again.

Juventus vs. Inter Milan — I’m not sure why I ever recommend Juve matches in this section, but this is one of the biggest rivalries in Italy, both for fan passion and competitively.

Manchester City vs. Manchester United — Get your scalding hot takes ready, this one’s sure to produce some capital-n Narratives.

Stuff we’re reading

Nick Ames at The Guardian argues against leagues holding matches abroad and calls on UEFA to do something about it.

Ed Maylon and Matt Hughes at FootBiz try to figure out exactly why leagues are so excited to do this when it’s not going to generate that much money up front.

Bill Connelly at ESPN presents the big “ifs” every Premier League club needs to answer to reach their goals this season.

Ali Tweedale at Opta Analyst breaks down some early season trends in the Prem.

Dermot Corrigan and Guillermo Rai at The Athletic asked La Liga teams what they think of the league’s salary cap. Most of them are in favor.

Jake Entwistle at Scouted went digging for some undervalued U-23 wingers. It’s SponCon, but they use their normal process to evaluate fun players after using the sponsor product and I still liked the piece.

Aaron O’Shea at Total Football Analysis looks at how Xavi Simons fits into Thomas Frank’s tactics.

Nick Harris at Nutmeg tells the story of Bodo/Glimt’s success and wonders what Scottish clubs can learn from a side on a similar budget.

Yash Thakur at The Cutback gives his top 5 transfers of the summer in women’s football.

Sam Parry at Not The Top 20 scrutinizes the good, the bad, and the ugly of teamsheet graphics.

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