WTF is going on at Nottingham Forest?

Plus games we're watching and stuff we're reading.

Author

Kim McCauley
August 22, 2025

Last season was a roaring success for Nottingham Forest. Even though they struggled a bit down the stretch, they still secured European football in a season where they were expected to only finish a position or two clear of the drop zone.

You’d think this would make their managerial positions one of the most secure in world football, but instead, Nuno Espirito Santo is saying stuff like this in press conferences:

That hardly refutes reporting from Matteo Moretto that Forest is considering sacking Nuno over his disagreement with the club’s transfers this summer, and is already contacting potential replacements. Among them is former Tottenham boss Ange Postecoglou, who is about as anti-Nuno tactically as they’re going to find.

Forest have spent a lot of money this summer, and on players that I think are pretty good. But they do seem a bit more on the side of technicians than high work rate athletes. If Nuno does end up getting fired, it’ll be interesting to hear him detail what he didn’t like about the team’s transfer policy.

A normal organization would have figured out this difference of opinion before the summer started, but Evangelos Marinakis seems committed to being the least normal football owner of all time.

The FPL corner

Thanks to everyone who reached out about FPL resources after last week’s newsletter. A few of you recommended Raptor and Harry as your favorite FPL content creators. We also got recommendations for a couple of other very cool tools:

This live FPL price predictor seems like an excellent tool for figuring out when to buy, sell, and hodl.

Solio’s squad planning tool with projected points and squad grades per matchweek is nuts, though the really cool tools will go behind a paywall at the end of September. My squad currently gets a B, though I’m currently much lower on Mo Salah’s likely goal and assist totals than the consensus. And hey, you’re never winning your league without some deviation from what all the experts think.

Elevenify reached out with a note about rolling over your free transfers, which is something it seems like a lot of FPL players don’t think about. Just because you have one every week doesn’t mean you have to use it, and it’s probably smart to stack them up if you don’t have an injury to replace:

There is significantly high uncertainty in the early season and rolling a transfer is essentially buying flexibility under uncertainty.

Also the ‘cost of switching’ between players is generally high because your resources are limited (e.g. only one free transfer per week).

Rolling a transfer increases the amount of information you have so you act with fresher data (e.g. injuries and lineups) and gives you ‘option value’, preserving flexibility to make two (or more) moves at a later date which is generally more valuable.

From my experience, a conservative approach (exploring less than you might feel tempted to) is a solid rule of thumb. You want the moves you made 2–4 weeks ago to support the decisions you’re making now. Some might find this playstyle ‘boring,’ but I encourage you to see it differently: rolling transfers (exploring less) gives you more flexibility and freedom to make better decisions when they matter most.

Elevenify also had a newsletter this week about how to react to early season outcomes that go against our expectations.

Games we’re watching

Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig — The Bundesliga opener features the title favorite vs. a European contender, though it’s not obvious what Leipzig is going to look like after a fairly dramatic summer.

Burnley vs. Sunderland — I can hear your gasp from a thousand miles away. Yeah, I’m more interested in the relegation 6-pointer than everything involving the big clubs this weekend.

Roma vs. Bologna — Can’t wait to see how Gasperini’s Roma plays, they’ve got some really fun talent getting thrown into the premier stat farming system.

Real Oviedo vs. Real Madrid — Xabi Alonso’s first La Liga game was as dull as it gets. Surely the tactics evolve a bit?

Lille vs. Monaco — Easily the most talent in a Ligue 1 matchup this weekend, probably featuring a lot of guys who will be subject to bids before the deadline.

Stuff we’re reading

Mohamed Mohamed at Analytics FC wrote about how Frankfurt are getting on without Hugo Ekitike, and if their unique playstyle will change at all.

Ashwin Raman at Scouted profiles midfielders that Manchester United should look into, with a few players mentioned who have featured on this newsletter before.

Ali Tweedale at The Analyst says long throws are back, they’re cool again, awooooo (wolf howl).

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football asks if Arsenal have done enough with their transfer window to win the Premier League.

Kai E. Iliev and Flo Lloyd-Hughes at The Cutback dig into the strange case of Barcelona women’s budget cuts and thin squad.

Dermot Corrigan at The Athletic details the issues with the Camp Nou, and if it’ll be ready to open for Barcelona men’s first home game.

Matt Hughes and Nick Ames at The Guardian report on the problems MCOs are facing with UEFA rules, and whether those rules are adequate.

Ryan O’Hanlon at ESPN defends some famous bad transfers, like Timo Werner and Jadon Sancho.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.”