You get FIVE free transfers in FPL this week

The usual Friday grab bag is being replaced by a totally FPL-focused newsletter today, because this game week features some extremely unusual circumstances. With the Africa Cup of Nations kicking off soon, this is the last gameweek that players participating in that tournament will be with their club teams. Because of that, players get five free transfers.

If you’ve been having a poor FPL season — or you’re just all in on Iliman Ndiaye and Bryan Mbeumo — this is a great opportunity to give your team a serious refresh.

Whether you’d like to mostly follow the big FPL tipsters/models out there or make your own off-meta picks, you probably want to do so with some kind of guidelines on which teams you should be pulling from. Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool unsurprisingly have the underlying numbers to suggest that their players are going to rack up points over the next 6 weeks, but Solio FPL has a couple of minor surprises on their goals and clean sheet projections.

Chelsea do not have particularly favorable fixtures coming up, and continued success is not necessarily expected for Crystal Palace and Aston Villa players. Meanwhile, Brentford and Everton are heading into some favorable fixtures, and their defenders might be excellent value pickups.

Generally, the top of the FPL meta is set in stone and you should probably have both Erling Haaland and Bukayo Saka in your team when they’re fit. But the best budget options are changing constantly, and the gamblers among you (not me, of course not) might have gotten stuck with some bad punts on off-meta players.

So with the game giving out 5 free transfers this week, I asked the guys at Solio to cook up a best budget options list to help you (again, not me, I definitely didn’t do anything stupid) re-make your team and undo some big mistakes.

Despite Liverpool’s recent struggles, pretty much every xG or betting market based model thinks they’ve been unlucky. With none of the heavy hitters on their fixture list over the next 5 games, the Reds are probably going to produce more than the average player thinks, and getting some of their top performers might be a good way to differentiate yourself from the crowd in your league.

Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg also look like better bets than some of the popular meta defenders over the next 6 weeks due to their favorable fixtures. While Brentford play Man City next week, their other games over the next 5 are at home against Leeds, Bournemouth and Tottenham, and away to Wolves and Everton. Their next match after that isn’t included in these graphics, but it’s another favorable one — home vs. Sunderland.

Solio’s suggestions for value players and teams to target differ quite a bit from what FPL Mate’s 100 experts are going for at the moment. Though one thing they have in common is being high on Fulham’s Joachim Andersen, with the Cottagers facing none of the top teams between now and January.

The most popular transfer among both FPL Mate’s 100 experts and the general player base this week is Phil Foden, who I am deciding to fade. Not because we have anything against Foden — please enjoy this piece from Neel predicting his resurgence — but because I think one of his teammates is a better option.

Since returning from injury, Rayan Cherki has firmly supplanted Tijjani Reinders as first choice in City’s midfield. His xG + xGA per 90 is actually quite a bit higher than Foden, with his assists coming from super high value cutbacks and through balls.

Foden’s 6 goals have come from 2.7 xG, with a couple absolute bangers from outside of the box. He’s playing great, but I don’t think he’ll end up with more goals and assists than Cherki if they continue to play the same minutes.

Midweek Champions League action might throw a wrench in FPL players’ plans as Pep rotates against Crystal Palace, but after that, City’s got well spread out games against West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Sunderland. You probably can’t go wrong with either Cherki or Foden — or Jeremy Doku, for that matter — but I’m taking a bit of a risk to find a differential from the crowd.

And finally, I recommend signing up for Lazy FPL, who send out a cheat sheet with all the info you need to pick your team every gameweek. We’re not exactly an FPL newsletter and don’t do coverage this extensive every week, but they do.

On the podcast this week, Pat and Hayden reviewed the UEFA Champions League matches, the biggest of which was City’s win over Real Madrid. Xabi Alonso looks like he’s on the verge of getting sacked, and the boys wonder whether or not anyone can coach the current Madrid squad.

Our Patreon-exclusive episode for this week is on the players who have experienced the biggest improvements or drop-offs this season. The aforementioned Doku gets quite a bit of time.

On Variance Betting, Ted has 4 bets on the Premier League and 6 on the Championship this weekend. There’s some value in the lines for a few relegation battlers this week, and you can upgrade if you want to get Ted’s bets every week.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.