Benjamin Šeško is heating up

Benjamin Šeško got off to a tough start to his Manchester United career. The big Slovenian was struggling under Ruben Amorim — who reportedly didn’t even want him — after his £65m move. But he’s had a massive second half of the year, and his improved form is one of the biggest reasons United is in a Champions League place.

He scored just two goals in the Premier League before the turn of the new year, but Šeško has eight in 2026. He’s overperforming his xG a bit, but this is still a promising shot chart. He’s got goals with his feet, his head, off though balls and off dribbles. He’s taking good shots from the center of the box. It’s not an elite striker’s shooting profile yet, but it’s pretty good.

If you’re in any way adjacent to Arsenal Twitter, you might have experienced a vicious debate between fans about whether they should sign Šeško or Viktor Gyökeres in the build-up to last summer. Šeško was the higher risk, higher potential reward player, with an elite physical skillset, while Gyökeres was the safer option.

Ultimately, it made sense for the Gunners — who correctly felt they were close to a title — to go for the more experienced and proven player. And it made an equal amount of sense for a Man United team who felt quite some distance off top 4 to swing for the fences on a player who was unlikely to be great this season, but who had superstar potential.

Hilariously, they are basically the same guy.

But if they’re the same guy, you’d rather have the one who’s four years younger, bigger, and faster.

I was very skeptical of the Šeško signing due to his low xG and shot volume at Leipzig. He hasn’t quite done enough to prove those concerns unwarranted; 7.23 xG and 10 goals isn’t exactly a spectacular return for a £65m striker. But he clearly isn’t a disaster, and is showing the potential to eventually live up to that fee and cement himself as United’s long-term center forward.

PSG-Bayern was one of the best Champions League games ever, but Pat and Ted didn’t love the narrative about how the match played out. It was a top quality game and excellent entertainment, but free-flowing nostalgiaball? Not exactly.

They talk about what actually happened in the game and why we might see a lot more like it in the future:

This week’s Patreon exclusive podcast discusses some of the biggest transfer rumours floating around at the moment. Is Osimhen to Arsenal for real? Would Nicolas Jackson be a good fit at Newcastle?

On Variance Betting, Ted has 2 bets on the Premier League and 3 on MLS this weekend. A couple of big underdogs are getting a little too much disrespect from the books, and we’ve had quite a bit of luck this year capitalizing on those goal-plus lines when it shouldn’t be that big. If you’re interested in football betting and you’d like to learn how to get smarter about it, you can subscribe to Variance Betting here.

The FPL Corner

At this point in the season, the FPL plays are pretty straightforward. You should have Arsenal and Manchester City players. I have no argument with any of the settled meta stuff you’ll see from the likes of Harry, Raptor, and FPL Mate. But I’d like to point out one potential fun differential guy.

Brighton have favorable fixtures down the stretch, and they have a lot to play for in a tight race for European places. Solio’s model has them 5th for projected goals and 3rd for chances of clean sheets over the final fixtures of the season.

And Brighton defender Jan Paul van Hecke is having an excellent season. Some of the great ball-carrying stuff here doesn’t get factored in for FPL:

But he’s been posting a good volume of tackles, interceptions, blocks and clearances for FPL purposes. He’s 11th in points across the entire season, but he’s scored 4 or more for 5 gameweeks in a row, and that’s without a goal. He’s a threat on set pieces, with 3 goals from 22 shots this year.

Gabriel and Nico O’Reilly are your obvious must-haves at the back, but between the fixtures and recent form, I think Van Hecke is an excellent off-meta pick.

Also, Man City and Crystal Palace both get a double gameweek next week, so plan ahead for that. Lazy FPL is the easiest way to stay on top of stuff like that:

Games we’re watching

The easiest place to find listings for your country is LiveSoccerTV.

Manchester United vs. Liverpool — They’re probably both locked into Champions League regardless of result, but it’s an important one for the Vibes of the season and whether or not everyone feels like they had a good year.

Hoffenheim vs. Stuttgart — A huge showdown for the last Champions League place in Germany. You should read more about Hoffenheim’s pressing game from Mohamed, and about Stuttgart manager Sebastien Hoeneß from Neel.

Como vs. Napoli — A CL place has been slipping away from Como in recent weeks, but they’re still only 3 points behind Juventus.

Barcelona vs. Osasuna — Not much of consequence going on in Spain for the rest of the season, so just watch the best players play a fun style and probably score a lot of goals.

Lyon vs. Rennes — The battle for European spots in France is kind of nuts. This is 3rd vs. 5th, with 1 point separating them.

Stuff we’re reading

Matt Hughes at The Guardian digs into the finances of the World Cup, as a lot of people wonder where that $13B of projected revenue is actually going.

Henry Bushnell at The Athletic reports on the farce that was Gianni Infantino trying to get the FA presidents of Israel and Palestine to shake hands for a photo op.

Ed Maylon at FootBiz can get you caught up on the latest Italian officiating scandal.

Rob Dawson at ESPN thinks Michael Carrick has done everything he can to earn the Manchester United job permanently.

David Segar at Opta Analyst looks at the final day of the Championship, where there’s a 3-way battle for the last automatic promotion spot.

Matt Doyle at Tactics Free Zone makes the case for MLS not letting the Vancouver Whitecaps move, despite the current ownership and stadium situation.

Jonas Bartsch at Total Football Analysis scouts Noel Aseko, who’s having an excellent season on loan at Hanover from Bayern Munich.

Yash Thakur at The Cutback covers how Bayern Munich pulled off a surprise draw against Barcelona in the women’s Champions League.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.