Defensive football brings AC Milan back to the top of Serie A

After suffering their worst league finish in a decade, Milan turned to the trusted old hands of Massimiliano Allegri this summer. So far, things seem to be working out well as they are currently up in second place. The Rossoneri have not lost a match after the season opener, taking their unbeaten streak to 12 with a big derby win over Inter on Sunday.

A closer look at Milan’s results reveals an interesting trend. Their latest victory over Inter means that they have now beaten all the other teams currently occupying the top five in the Serie A standings, yet they remain a couple of points off the leaders. A point each against Juventus and Atalanta is acceptable enough, so it’s the 2-2 draws with Parma and Pisa, as well as the opening day defeat to Cremonese, that have held the 19-time Italian champions back.

Anyone who has been following Italian football and Allegri in recent years will quickly recognise this pattern, which is largely a consequence of his tactical approach. For those who don’t, here’s a scatterplot:

Allegri’s mantra can be eloquently articulated as “Why use more possession when less does the trick?”

Evidently, this has worked quite well in the big games so far. The lowest field tilt number in the win over Napoli can be treated as a bit of an anomaly given the fact that Milan spent over half an hour down to ten, but the rest is all pure Allegri-special haramball.

Of course, the Rossoneri take things up a few notches when they are in the lead, but they most definitely don’t mind being on the back foot right from the off. Against both Roma and Inter, they were only at about 40% of possession even before the deadlock was broken. The Napoli and Atalanta matches saw very early openers, while the match against Juventus remained goalless.

Milan clearly have issues in other types of matches and situations, but it is first worth questioning the sustainability of this approach in itself. Allegri’s side have significantly benefited from taking the lead in 10 of their 12 league games so far, but they will have to do very well to maintain that rate. Some of their openers have come well against the run of play, such as last weekend when they were outshot 12-4 before putting together the decisive move.

We must also acknowledge that Milan are set up pretty much to do just this. They aren’t outperforming their xG at all and can pose a serious attacking threat in transition through forwards such as Rafael Leão and Christian Pulisic, who stand to benefit from the passing of Luka Modrić. So, when they get forward on the counter from deep, they get into what is an ideal situation for their attack.

In most other respects, though, they have declined quite a bit from last season.

As both above graphs show, the problem is that Milan aren’t able to do enough against settled blocks. This can be attributed to Allegri’s setup as well as Milan’s squad building, which has left them with just one recognised striker in Santiago Giménez (currently out injured) and generally lacking in goal-threat from the supporting cast.

Allegri has never been renowned for his sensational attacks, so Milan’s defence is the main thing he’ll have wanted to work on after coming in. Indeed, his very passive approach has helped them improve some key defensive numbers, making their matches pretty low-event affairs on the whole.

With that being said, Milan are as low as 10th in the league in terms of xG conceded, so they clearly haven’t been as solid as their coach would like. Much of this can be chalked up to occasionally getting carried away in open games as well as some defensive lapses, but the back five and low block haven’t been entirely watertight either. The Rossoneri are similarly in the middle of the pack for shots conceded and average quality of chances conceded, so just one man is key to their apparent defensive success.

Reliance on individuals isn’t a novelty for Allegri’s sides, but he usually limits that to the attacking side of things. Milan are no exception in this respect, as most of their forward play is going through a 40-year-old…

… while none other than The LeBron James Of Soccer is their most productive finisher.

In all fairness, Milan are currently second in the league for Expected Goals, only behind their city rivals. The returns of Giménez and Ardon Jashari may also help better distribute responsibilities in the near future. So, despite all the issues I have uncovered, I must concede that the Rossoneri might yet be able to seriously compete in the title race if they manage to keep all their stars fit and firing.

A big part of the reason behind that is the general mediocrity of Serie A’s leading pack, which Patrick and I discussed at the end of this Monday’s podcast.

Inter have by far the best underlying numbers in the league, but their ever-ageing squad and commitments across all competitions could impair them yet again. That would leave the door open for a side like Milan, who only have domestic action scheduled this season.

In most seasons, Milan would still be a couple of steps away from being serious title contenders given all the challenges and question marks they are faced with. This term, however, they may well be close enough to capitalise if a few pieces fall their way. The next couple of months might just be the most important stretch of their season, even though they will only be facing lower or mid-table opponents until a visit to Roma on January 25. If they manage to remain in touch with the league leaders until then, the Rossoneri will be in a handy position to challenge for their 20th league title.

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