How good is Hugo Ekitike?

In yesterday’s newsletter, we shared a report that Eintracht Frankfurt striker Hugo Ekitike is Chelsea’s No. 1 target for this summer. Today, Florian Petterberg is reporting that Liverpool are just as interested, with the clubs having opened talks. Frankfurt’s asking price is €100m.

That figure seems a bit steep, but if Chelsea and Liverpool are ready to engage in a fight rather than paying a simple asking price to go get Viktor Gyökeres or Victor Osimhen, perhaps it’s not a crazy ask. I can’t imagine Liverpool would spend that kind of money on a striker in the same window where they’re set to spend in excess of €100m on Florian Wirtz and buy a couple of fullbacks as well, but they might have much better sales lined up than we realize.

So, why is he higher on Liverpool and Chelsea’s list than the more established names at striker? Let’s watch a classic 10 minute YouTube mixtape for fun to get us started.

In part 2 of our Liverpool rebuild series, I singled out Ekitike as the striker I’d have as my top target if I was running their transfer strategy this summer. The big reason was the variety in his game and ability to set up chances for the likes of Mohamed Salah just as much as he gets his own.

Earlier this year, Mohamed Mohamed wrote about Ekitike for us in a piece about three different promising tall strikers. His combination of size and dribbling ability isn’t something you see too often.

For a guy who gets so much praise for his dribbling and passing abilities, you’d think that Ekitike isn’t as much of a shooter as some of the other top strikers expected to make moves this summer. But his xG and shot volume are right up there with the best of the best. And he continued to play in the same fashion, setting up chances for teammates just as often as he created great shooting opportunities for himself, even after the departure of Omar Marmoush.

Do you like red triangles? Boy, do I love red triangles. For the uninitiated, triangles represent shots immediately preceded by through balls in the below shot chart, and they’re the highest value shots. The darker red a shot is on this chart, the higher the xG value. This dude gets some extremely high value shots.

As good as Ekitike has been this season, he’s also been a bit unlucky, underperforming his xG by three goals. I personally don’t think he has any finishing quality issues from having watched him, and clearly Liverpool have come to the exact same conclusion. I also think his quick feet allow him to avoid getting his shots blocked when he’s in tight spaces in the box, something that happens a bit too often to Gyökeres and Benjamin Šeško for my tastes.

But the big value that Ekitike provides relative to the other big names getting linked to rich teams is his playmaking skills. He’s setting up great shots for teammates. And in case you’re suspicious that he farmed these stats playing next to Marmoush, all 7 of his assists are to different players.

So, what are the downsides? He’s not particularly strong and can get knocked off the ball more easily than the other star strikers he’s being compared to regularly at the moment. He’s surprisingly average in the air for a guy who’s 6’3” and has solid leaping ability. But these are very easy problems to fix compared to, say, having bad touch or passing vision or goal-scoring instincts in the 18 yard box. Liverpool and Chelsea know where to get a heading coach and some protein shakes.

Chelsea and Liverpool are correct to have Ekitike on top of their strikers list. He has the highest ceiling of the strikers these teams are considering, and he’d get the most out of combining with Salah/Cole Palmer. €100m is a number that carries serious sticker shock, and Ekitike might not be worth quite that, but I also don’t think anyone’s going to end up having buyer’s remorse. He’ll be an immediate impact player for either team.

More news and rumours

• We have a few bits that are actually closer to news than rumour on that spectrum today. Several outlets are reporting that Jonathan Tah has finalized his contract with Bayern Munich and is having his medical today. He should join them in time for the Club World Cup.

• Napoli’s sporting director believes that the Kevin De Bruyne deal is close to done, saying they can “see the finish line.” I wouldn’t sign KDB to a 3-year contract, but I also wouldn’t have done all the stuff Napoli did last summer, and they won the Scudetto. Maybe Naples has a beach that’s like the opposite of the one from the movie Old, which has a beach that makes you old.

• Real Madrid think they can finish the signing of Alvaro Carreras from Benfica before the Club World Cup. Man United not executing their buyback option on him is looking a bit strange, isn’t it?

• Madrid are also pursuing a deal for Angelo Stiller, according to Nicolo Schira. I’m really interested to see what that fee is going to look like. Given how much interest I think Stiller had from Premier League clubs as well, I doubt Stuttgart’s letting them off the hook with a good deal.

• Rudy Galetti says Inter Milan are confident of signing wingback Luis Henrique from Marseille for €25m, though Bayern Munich are still interested. I’d like him in Inter’s 3-5-2 setup a lot, would be a great pickup.

• Fab says Milos Kerkez to Liverpool is still expected to happen, in case you were worried.

• Manchester United’s plan to make £40m in pure PSR profit off selling Marcus Rashford is getting undone by the fact that the player’s dream is to play for Barcelona, but Barcelona does not have any money. Barca have proposed a loan, and Man United have understandably said we’d actually really like that £40m.

• The same thing is happening with Antony. He probably doesn’t have a great market at his PSR break-even fee of £30-35m, so he might just go on loan to Betis again. I’m sorry, Man United fans. Don’t shoot the messenger.

• I’d be so sad if Victor Osimhen went to the Saudi league instead of a big European club but get your bag I guess.

—KM

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