The Liverpool Rebuild, Part 2

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Welcome to Part 2 of the Liverpool rebuild, where we discuss potential transfer targets. Part 1, on the current state of the team, is here. We also have a companion podcast where Ted and Patrick discuss this stuff, if you enjoy transfer talk with human voices and some more back-and-forth.

This is going to be quite a bit more complicated than the Manchester United version of this post. For them, we picked out 4 positions where they need to buy better players ASAP. For each position, we picked out an ideal, likely, backup, and high variance target. Easy.

Liverpool is in a much different situation. They don’t really need anything, except at least one more warm body who knows how to play right back. They’re title winners, everyone not named Trent Alexander-Arnold seems pretty happy to stay, and there will likely be minimal short-term consequences from maintaining the status quo.

But preventative medicine is a hell of a lot more effective than post-disease treatment, and Liverpool management are generally a proactive bunch. Just because the squad is good enough now doesn’t mean things can’t change dramatically in the near future. I’m sure most people reading this remember Liverpool’s 2009-2013 period very well.

So we’re going to talk about a lot of different squad building options here, rather than some black-and-white, they must buy X position, here are players for that position. There are a lot of different ways for Liverpool to approach getting better this summer. Let’s dig in.

—KM

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Recreating Trent in the aggregate, midfield option 1: Adam Wharton

Liverpool have been linked to some star midfielders as part of a potential Recreating Trent in the Aggregate project. If you are not familiar with this meme from the movie “Moneyball,” the Oakland Athletics lost a star player named Jason Giambi in 2001 and had no way to replace him. Brad Pitt’s character concludes that if the team can improve marginally at two other positions while minimizing the loss in quality at Giambi’s position, the team can retain the same level of production.

There is no such thing as a direct Trent replacement, which is why he’s about to get a shitload of money from Real Madrid. If Liverpool are going to maintain the same quality of playmaking from deep positions in a post-Trent world, they will likely need to improve their passing output from their deepest-lying central midfielder.

It’s not impossible that there’s an internal solution to this. Ryan Gravenberch is just 22, and that’s an age where central midfielders are still improving their passing vision. Curtis Jones and Harvey Elliot could transition into deeper-lying roles. But if Liverpool want some immediate help in this area, they’ve only got a couple great options, and they’re going to be expensive.

That was a very long-winded introduction to a simple thesis: Adam Wharton is good at passing, he’d made Liverpool a better football team.

Unfortunately for Liverpool, Crystal Palace have done a good job of managing their finances in recent years and do not need to sell cheap. They managed to repel the vultures circling Marc Guehi last summer, telling everyone it’s £80m or piss off. They’ll probably do the same for Wharton.

Option 2: Angelo Stiller

From the rebuilding United piece:

Well, here’s one of those teams. Stiller is older than Wharton, and might be close to his ceiling. His defensive numbers aren’t as good. But he’s got much more experience in European competition, he’ll still be in his 20s at the end of a 5-year contract, and his passing numbers are off the charts.

I don’t have more options here, because I don’t think Liverpool should spend a lot of money on a midfielder if they can’t get one of these two at a price they’re comfortable with. They’ll just be spending a lot of money for a guy who is worse than Gravenberch, and I’m not sure what the point of that would be.

Right backs, from Trentiest: Óscar Mingueza

I don’t know exactly how Liverpool is going to approach the right back situation on a scale of Moneyball meme to really wanting a Trent-like substance, so we’ve got three options. Here’s the most Trent-like substance they’re going to find, at least from a passing numbers standpoint.

The Barca-trained Mingueza is not on Trent’s level athletically and I suspect he might not be a good enough defender to get through the Liverpool recruitment team’s filters. But if you want a guy who does Trent Stuff with the ball from the right back position, here is the one other guy on the planet currently doing that. He completes 5.69 line-breaking passes in the attacking half per 90, which is actually higher than Alexander-Arnold’s 4.87.

Kinda Trenty: Martim Fernandez

Fernandez doesn’t quite have the line-breaking pass capability of Alexander-Arnold and Mingueza. He’s only 19, and might not be ready for a move to the Premier League. But he’s an excellent passer for the position, and much more defensively capable than Migueza despite his young age.

I mentioned Fernandez in the United piece as not really fitting their existing profile for a wingback, despite his talent. Fernandez does appear to fit Liverpool’s profile a bit better. But, again, he might not be ready for this kind of jump.

Not Trenty: Vanderson

I think the most likely scenario is that Liverpool accepts that there is not a Trent replacement out there, and they should just sign the best all-around right back who is good enough at passing that Arne Slot feels he can work with him. I think that player is undoubtedly Monaco’s Vanderson, who has outstanding defensive numbers to go along with totally fine passing and dribbling numbers.

Over on the other side of the defense, it’s time to replace Andy Robertson with someone younger who can run. But do Liverpool want someone to mimic Prime Robbo, or does the recreating Trent in the aggregate concept require something different entirely?

Left backs, from most Robbolike: Milos Kerkez

You’re probably already sick of hearing Kerkez to Liverpool rumours. They’ve been relentless for 6 months at this point, and for good reason. He’s a 21-year-old who plays a lot like the early 20s version of Liverpool’s current left back.

I do wonder if the data will move him down the club’s list, though. He’s certainly got the pace and fitness to grow into a star, and his highlight plays are nuts. But he’s not a terribly consistent performer with the ball at his feet. There are quite a few games where he doesn’t produce much of value.

Kinda Robbolike: Rayan Aït-Nouri

If you’re willing to sacrifice some of Kerkez’s athletic ceiling in order to bring in someone who’s a bit more experienced, as well as a bit more consistent and well-rounded, perhaps Wolverhampton’s Rayan Aït-Nouri is more your cup of tea.

He runs plenty, he’s a good athlete, he can dribble and cross. Maybe not as spectacularly as Kerkez, but he does all those things at an above average level. He’s fine. Liverpool fans shouldn’t be over the moon or disappointed if they sign this guy. Unironically, this is fine.

I SAID we’re recreating Trent in the aggregate: Juan Miranda

Hey, remember the Barcelona-trained right back who is an elite passer but doesn’t play much defense that we talked about earlier? How about a Barcelona-trained LEFT back who is an elite passer but doesn’t play much defense!

Juan Miranda has taken a big jump in his passing quality this season after moving from Real Betis to Bologna. Ages 24 to 25 is a pretty normal time for a player to do something like this, and he’s otherwise stayed pretty similar stylistically.

Liverpool “replacing” their fullbacks by just flipping them, signing a playmaking LB and a RB who runs a lot, would be an amazing bit.

The striker I love: Hugo Ekitike

I don’t think anyone knows exactly what kind of striker profile Arne Slot prefers, which is going to make this summer very fun. My hypothesis is that he’d like someone who is very much a true 9 who can run into the box and score goals, but has some level of back-to-goal, combination play skills.

If I’m wrong and Liverpool just buys someone like Victor Osimhen or Viktor Gyökeres who is just a straight-up goal-scorer, cool. Those are good players and they’ll probably score a bunch of goals on Liverpool.

But the guy who I think best combines timing runs to the top of the 6 to get tons of high value chances with combining in midfield is Hugo Ekitike. He’s a bit of a risk — he’s only had one really good season in the Bundesliga, and he’s not as physical as he should be given his frame — but I think he does what Liverpool needs and is only getting better with experience.

The striker who terrifies me: Benjamin Šeško

We are in the business of doing opinionated analysis. Ted and I have been doing this for a long time. We’re right more than we’re wrong, but obviously we are wrong sometimes, and we accept that’s just part of the game we’re playing here. 99% of the time, I am not scared of saying a player or transfer is bad because I might get proven wrong in the future. But I am extremely unsure of my opinion on Benjamin Šeško.

I just… don’t think he’s that good. He’s not a particularly productive shooter or playmaker. He wasn’t last season either. This is not a £70m player. Anyone who pays £70m for this is crazy, right?

It’s easy to look at this shot chart and say “xG overperformance lol,” but he’s going to do this kind of thing repeatedly in his career because he’s one of the most talented headers of the ball I’ve ever seen.

The circles aren’t luck. They’re low xG chances because on the whole, over hundreds of thousands of shots, a very low percentage of them from all players are goals. But some dudes genuinely are built different, and this mf can seriously head a football.

The “what if” scenario Šeško makes me feel like I might look like a real moron in a couple years for saying he’s not worth signing at a big fee for the kind of clubs that can afford it. If his off-ball movement gets just a little better, if he starts getting just one more shot per 90, he could be an absolute monster.

We call Premier League directors of football mean names in this newsletter frequently and will continue to do so. But I’m not going to say it about whoever signs Šeško, as much as I’ll disagree with signing him.

A potential value suggestion: Gonçalo Ramos

So these numbers are fake. There are a lot of sub effects, there’s a lot of farming bottom half clubs. If I played striker for PSG against relegation fodder Ligue 1 teams, I’d get some high xG tap-ins on accident.

But Ramos was pretty good for Benfica, and pretty good last season, and he’s still only 23. The striker market is pretty weak, so if PSG are selling at a reasonable price, he might prove to be an excellent pickup.

Salah understudies, from most to least ready: Johan Bakayoko

I was a bit surprised that Liverpool didn’t jump into the Yankuba Minteh or Matías Soulé market last summer, so maybe they will once again put off buying a left-footed winger to back up Mohamed Salah. But I wouldn’t put that off another year, so here are a few options.

Johan Bakayoko has been linked heavily to Liverpool since scoring a goal against them, and he’s had another very solid season at PSV. Cody Gakpo’s working out well, why not go get Left Footed Cody Gakpo?

Ready: Mohamed-Ali Cho

I think that Cho is a bit more of a project player than Bakayoko, but he’s performed well in Ligue 1 this season. He might not be as spectacular of a dribbler, but he’s a little bit bigger and I think he might grow into becoming the more well-rounded player. Apologies if you are unable to get over the fact that he was once an Everton youth player; I can’t imagine this bothers him or Liverpool management.

Not quite ready: Roger Fernandes

I suspect that Roger Fernandes will either wait another year to make a move, or transfer to one of the three richer Portuguese teams. He’s quite an inconsistent performer, especially in games against the toughest opponents Braga faces. But he’s an elite dribbler, his playmaking stats are good for his age, and his highlights are out of this world.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a Premier League team wanted to get in on the ground floor of this project instead of paying the Benfica or Porto premium two years from now.

The project: Tyler Dibling

“Southampton have put a £100m price tag on Tyler Dibling,” and obviously no one is going to buy him at that price. Southampton know this, and it is their way of telling potential bidders to piss off. But things can change real fast when a player on a relegated team has bids from big clubs and starts throwing a fit.

Currently, Dibling is a genuinely elite dribbler already, but does almost nothing else that a football club would find useful. Regardless, I’d much rather take a player who has Dibling’s dribbling skills and try to make them better at other stuff than try to teach a decent all-rounder how to do Tyler Dibling stuff.

If I could concoct a perfect situation for Dibling’s development, independent of any financial concerns, it would be going to Liverpool to become Salah’s understudy. In reality, I think it’s likely that Liverpool struggles to get Southampton down to a price that they’re comfortable with. But from a complete fantasy perspective of wanting to see a fun player go to the right place to reach his potential, I very much want to see this happen.

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