How Lens are keeping pace with PSG in the Ligue 1 title race

When Qatar Sports Investments took over as majority owners of Paris Saint-Germain, it forever changed Ligue 1. Their vast financial wherewithal allowed PSG to regularly field star studded starting XI’s. This was in comparison to a lot of clubs in France who face significant economic concerns, especially in recent years with French football media rights being in a tough state. The league quickly became an afterthought, as their ambitions extended to Europe and the Champions League, which they finally won last season.

This isn’t to say that dynasties have never existed in France’s top division. Before PSG, Olympique Lyonnais won seven straight from 2002-08, often taking advantage of French football’s vast amount of talent across the division to constantly build really good teams. Olympique Marseille won four in a row from 1989-92 with their own dream team, although their 1993 title was later stripped due to an infamous bribery scandal. There’s also Saint-Étienne and their seven first division titles spread across nearly two decades (1964-81). Even still, one could argue there wasn’t a level of helplessness amongst the other clubs during those eras compared to what’s gone on during PSG’s reign at the top.

So it’s been worth celebrating whenever a club in France emerges as a surprise title winner. Montpellier took advantage of PSG not quite being PSG yet in the early days of QSI’s ownership, along with the declines from Lyon, Bordeaux, and Marseille to shockingly win the league in 2012. Many still have fond memories of the ultra fun 2016-17 Monaco side which scored a ton of goals (107 to be exact) en route to winning Ligue 1 by 8 points. Lille’s 2021 title was remarkable when one considers they were nearly relegated only three years prior, alongside the constant financial tightrope they seemingly have to walk. 

Will RC Lens join this illustrious group? As of writing, they’re leading the pack with 43 points in 18 games. It surpasses what they accomplished in the 2022-23 season on a points per game basis, when they got 84 points in a 38 game season. You’d have to go back to the 2001-02 season to find the last time Lens were leading the league at this point of the campaign, when they were seven points ahead of eventual winners Lyon through 20 matches. 

So the question is, can Lens actually pull off the near improbable and win the 2025-26 Ligue 1 crown? Before we try and answer that, it’s important to note how they play.

What do Lens do with the Ball

For a team that’s fourth in Ligue 1 in goals, and first in both shots and non-penalty expected goals, one would think Lens would dominate the ball in a manner we’ve been used to across Europe. Yet, the numbers don’t point that out. They’re middle of the pack in possession at 49.1%. According to Opta Analyst; they’re 10th in both 10+ pass sequences and build up attacks, and 12th in passes per sequence.

Buildup can be a bit of a chore. Lens will alternate between having an asymmetric back 4 with two or three midfielders in deep positions, or a back three. They’ll try to attempt what you see from most clubs, which is to bait the press and then spring into action. Their success with this can be hit or miss. What helps differentiate them from others is their willingness to go long, as they’re tied for 7th in long passes. 5 of the 6 clubs ahead of them are below 10th in the table, with Brest having the highest league position (10th). On the left side is when Lens are more susceptible to being forced to hit hail mary-esque long balls due to lesser fluidity when attempting to quickly combine while facing opponents who are going man-to-man. 

The right flank is where you see Lens operate a bit more seamlessly. Ruben Aguilar operates as a do-it-all wing-back, someone who’ll try long balls from deeper areas or use his off-ball movement as the third man to help grease the wheels of their in-possession play. Florian Thauvin operates as one of the two No 10s in the right halfspace, but he’ll often come deeper and switch positions with Adrian Thomasson, in which the latter will make a run in-behind. It can be impressive watching Lens when they’re at their best, with the movement making it difficult for opponents in France to keep track of. The viz below from Opta Analyst on territorial dominance shows how Lens have operated with the ball.

If there’s one thing which defines Lens in the final third, it’s crossing. They rank third in attempted crosses with 250, behind only Lyon (255) and Le Havre (326). Meanwhile, they’re also 4th in success rate. A major problem which can arise with back 3/5 systems is the lack of box presence, but Lens will often pack the opposition box so they’re less susceptible to this. Guys like Thauvin or Wesley Said will get their fair share of shots as the weakside runner towards the far post. 

It’s an interesting formula, and one which has seen impressive results so far. Opta has Lens with the most non-penalty expected goals in attack through 18 matches, while Statsbomb has them fifth. Statsbomb also has them fifth in open play, with Marseille as the Ligue 1 leaders in this area. Their output has been helped by them getting to play more often against a non-set defense. Via Opta Analyst, Lens lead Ligue 1 in both fast breaks, and goals from fast breaks.

What do Lens do Without the Ball?

The best teams historically have tended to feature a defense which does very well at shot suppression through a suffocating press, so that the math works out in their favor despite giving up the occasional great chance. That’s not been the case with Lens this season, as you can argue there’s something of a bend but don’t break strategy to how they operate without the ball. They’re middle of the pack for shots against, with Opta Analyst having them concede the 7th least expected goals in the league.

Lens’ low block consists of a 5-4-1 with the wing-backs trying to stay compact. The three center-backs will take turns interchanging when to jump out of the defensive line to apply pressure on an opponent. It can lead to those CBs being dragged out of position through coordinated movements and leaving space to exploit, but the jumps have worked more often than not. Their low block applies more pressure compared to others, and as a result, they get in the way of shots at a plentiful rate. Lens rank 5th in Ligue 1 in shots blocked. Their defensive activity map illustrates their lack of passivity within their own half.

It is important to note that such a strategy is easier to implement when the goalkeeper is saving shots at an above average rate. Robin Risser has performed like one of the best shot stoppers in France. According to Opta Analyst, only Hervé Koffi has prevented more goals than Risser’s 6.9. Statsbomb data has him 5th, with an expected save percentage of 76% vs his actual of 79%. He’s made some crucial stops in helping preserve Lens’ lead at the top, including two penalty saves out of four.

Lens don’t just defend deep however, as they’ll look to apply pressure themselves without the ball, although they’re not necessarily a pressing juggernaut. Via Opta Analyst, they’re 3rd in high turnovers generated. However, Statsbomb has them 11th for pressures in the opposition half and 9th in counterpressures. Teams who create a ton of turnovers usually rank firmly above average in those metrics as well. At least some of this is due to not being in position to counter-press effectively with how their attack functions. However, Lens also don’t go full throttle with their press, including when shifting from a mid block into a high press. Instead, they’re selective in the middle third for when they’ll try to outnumber the opposition near the flank to win the ball back and generate a direct attack.

What can be said about Lens is they will try to provide some defensive resistance up the pitch no matter who the opposition is. When Lens lost at the Parc des Princes, they did have a bit of success in the first half from disrupting their buildup off of goal kicks. Their away win at Monaco was even better, featuring several high turnover regains and their first goal coming from a misplaced pass from Thilo Kehrer.

Lens’ home victory vs Marseille, their most important to date this season, was in some ways an illustration of their defensive profile. They did try to press at points, but Marseille were able to comfortably play through them and set up shop in the final third. Included were some unimpressive counterpressing attempts from the home side which gifted them space. However, Lens’ defending in their own half was resolute and while Marseille ended up with 17 shots (10 from open play), there were no clear cut opportunities. Samson Baidoo was quite good with how he helped knit everything together in defense, something he’s been doing all season.

Player to Watch: Florian Thauvin

A large portion of the charm with this iteration of Lens is it’s not a side powered by the heavy lifting from a couple of superstars, nor is it one laden with stars. It’s a bunch of solid talents who have bandied together to create something greater than the sum of its parts. As such, there are several candidates you can pick from for this section. We’ve already made mention of Risser’s top notch shot-stopping, Wesley Said leads the team in total goals and assists with 10, while Adrien Thomasson is their do-it-all midfielder. However, I want to give a shoutout to Thauvin, if only because of how interesting it is that we’ve reached this point with him.

Thauvin’s career arc has been odd for someone who’s overall been successful. He was one of France’s biggest prospects by the time he signed with Marseille in the summer of 2013. His first stint there lasted two seasons and was up and down, before an ill-fated departure to Newcastle in 2015 which didn’t even last 6 months. His return to Marseille in 2016 was much more fruitful, at points peaking as one of the most productive players in Europe before leaving once more in 2021. He’s been with various clubs since then, including playing for Tigres UANL, before this latest stint with Lens.

Thauvin is a slower version of the guy we saw at his peak. He can’t quite beat his marker in 1v1s like he used to higher up the pitch, and can be quite prone to conceding turnovers, including when trying to operate with his back to goal. Even still, he remains a heady player who is a helpful passer in different phases. He can progress play individually if given some space, ranking in the top 5 in Ligue 1 for both carries which end in a shot or chance created, according to Opta Analyst. As mentioned earlier, his movement is dynamic enough.

At age 33, Thauvin has been one of the better players in Ligue 1. This is not a major surprise, as older players have had success in French football over the years. Journeymen have previously had career years in their early 30s. In addition, you’ll see former stars reclaim some of their past glory in France. Alexandre Lacazette’s second run with Lyon was very fruitful, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored a bunch of goals with Marseille in his mid 30s. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not Thauvin has enough gas in the tank to continue playing at a solid level into the spring.  

Could Lens Actually Win the Title?

Lens have objectively been a good team this season. Their gameplan has gotten them the 2nd best non-penalty expected goal difference in Ligue 1, according to Opta. Meanwhile, Statsbomb ranks them 5th, although essentially in a dead heat with 4th place Lyon and 3rd place Lille. It’s not necessarily the resume of a genuine title contender, with their underlying talent arguably more of a third best side in France rather than one with 43 points. Luck has certainly been on their side. For one, they’ve had a relatively settled squad which hasn’t succumbed to too many injuries. They’ve also got a goalkeeper (Risser) who is saving shots with some of the best in Europe, despite being a 21 year old who was playing in Ligue 2 with Red Star last season. In some good news however, Lens attack has perked up in recent weeks, including piling up 19 shots in last week’s 1-0 victory over Auxerre.

Despite Lens having the lead through 18 matches, PSG remain heavy favorites to win the title. Their underlying numbers are still the best in France. Even just qualitatively, they have the most talented squad in the league by some distance, especially when healthy. It’s no surprise then that Opta thinks there’s an 86.4% chance of them retaining their place on top of Ligue 1 by season’s end. To illustrate how dominant PSG have been in France, the last time they were not leading Ligue 1 at a comparable point of the season, you have to go back to 2017 when Monaco and Nice were both three points ahead through 20 matches (45 vs 42). 

For however strong Lens’ title chances currently are, they’ll be influenced over the next few months in part by unexciting stuff on the margins. Set-pieces are an example, since it could help bridge the true talent gap in theory. The good news is Lens have a set-piece goal difference of +6, the bad news is PSG’s at +8. Maybe the SP goal difference swings more in Lens’ favor going forward. Luck will also have to continue going Lens' way for them to go the distance. Not having to play in Europe this season means they have a better shot of avoiding a rash of major injuries. Conversion rate variance can also bridge the gap considerably. With 2017 Monaco and 2021 Lille, both were scoring way above expectations in Ligue 1, en route to their respective titles. In the case of Lens, it’s keeping opponents from scoring. No team has a lower opposition conversion rate than Lens’ 6.02 (5.21 when penalties are taken away). For reference, Angers are 2nd at 9.23%. 

If you told Lens fans before the season that they would be leading Ligue 1 through 20 matches, they would’ve taken it in a heartbeat. It’s been a great season for them so far, and even if they slow down the rest of the way, it’s likely they finish in a Champions League spot and return to the competition next season. Such a scenario would represent a massive boost to the club. If their good run of form continues, then perhaps just maybe, Lens can pull off a miracle and win the 2025-26 Ligue 1 title.

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