Manchester United will never change

Hello and welcome back to transfer grades. Part 1, part 2, and part 3 are linked if you missed anything. Today we’re talking about:

• Manchester United

• Sunderland

• Tottenham Hotspur

• West Ham

• Wolves

Before we get rolling, just a little bit of business.

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OK, onto the grades.

Manchester United — How many times do we need to say “don’t do that”

Total incomings — £232m

• Benjamin Sesko — £66.3m + £7.4m add-ons

• Bryan Mbeumo — £65m + £6m add-ons

• Matheus Cunha — £62.5m

• Senne Lammens — £18m

• Diego Leon — £7m

You know how we praised Liverpool for all that money they spent with laser like focus on positions of need?

Man United is the opposite. They spent a bunch of money, largely on positions they didn’t need, and ignored the glaring weakness in the midfield. Meanwhile, the players they signed were two expected goals overperformers, a solid young GK, and Benjamin Sesko.

Regression to the mean in expected goals is A Thing, and it’s A Thing I have made A LOT of money wagering on, both at the team level and the player level. But apparently Manchester United either believe this phenomenon is irrelevant to their business, or simply does not take place when players are wearing Manchester United kits. (Historically, we know this is simply not the case.)

Or maybe they believe that Cunha and Mbuemo are likely to sustain their extreme overperformance because they are elite finishers. Which is unlikely… but possible. But again, it’s not a bet I would be willing to take at the prices they paid.

So they paid too much for Cunha and Mbuemo given the market… what about Sesko? It’s worth noting that all of the smart teams dodged Sesko because his performance last season fell off dramatically. Yes, this was a RB-wide problem, but Red Bull wanted to stick to the release clause for him, and all the teams that do good transfer business quickly put down the phone and walked away.

However, Leipzig lucked out when Newcastle needed a CF replacement for Isak, and somehow United decided to get involved. Thus RB got a huge fee for a player no one is certain is good enough to play in the PL… and Manchester United got another attacker with giant question marks about his future.

Maybe all of these guys work out and United are one step (and a couple of midfielders) away from a Champions League return?

One of the fascinating things about getting inside football info, is that it teaches you a lot about the difference between a team’s perception and their PR spin. The media loves Man United, and Man United (and their army of ex-player talking heads) love to deliver nice things for the media to say about the club, even when the talking heads are complaining at the same time.

However, behind the scenes, other teams were scathing about their dealings with United in ways even beyond what they said about Daniel Levy. Which I’m sure will be very helpful when United want to move any of their castoff players on giant wages in the future. You know, in case these players don’t work out.

But I’m sure they will. It will all be fiiiiiine. — TK

Kim: D | Ted: D | Moe: C | Neel: C | Hayden: B-

Total outgoings — £67m

• Alejandro Garnacho — £40m

• Antony — £21.6m

• 8 players loaned

• 3 senior players released

Going into the last week of the window, United had made zero actual sales. They did get a couple across the line before all the window(s) closed, but was it actually good business?

The Antony deal nearly collapsed on price, which is funny because United turned a player they bought for £82m into a £22m sale, but price was still a sticking point. Betis had to walk away before United wised up and realised most Spanish teams have very little actual money these days, and Antony was adamant he wasn’t going to go anywhere else. Yay for the sale, but what an incredible loss on a peak age player.

Garnacho’s price was much higher, but given how much young Premier League attackers moved for this summer, he’s too low by at least £10-15m. Garnacho profiles like a player other teams have bought for £70m+ this window, but somehow Chelsea paid under market value?

If Hojlund’s buy clause is activated, it actually WILL be a good sale on a player who simply could not score in England. Maybe a return to the Italian sun will do both the player and United’s bank balance a world of good.

Rashford, Sancho, and Onana are loans that presumably save a TON of salary money on yet more of United’s high wage castoffs, which was absolutely necessary. — TK

Kim: D | Ted: C- | Moe: C- Neel: C- | Hayden: C-

United are somehow in a buy-high, sell-low vortex, even when it comes to prime assets. What a weird and wonderful club they are. — TK

Overall grade: C-

Sunderland — They’re certainly trying

Total incomings — £184m

• Habib Diarra — £30m

• Brian Brobbey — £17m + £4m add-ons

• Simon Adingra — £18m + £2.5m

• Chemsdine Talbi — £19.5m

• Enzo Le Fee — £19.3m

• Noah Sadiki — £15m + £2.5m add-ons

• Granit Xhaka — £13m + £4.3m add-ons

• Nordi Mukiele — £12m

• Robin Roefs — £9m + £2.5m add-ons

• Omar Alderete — £10.9m

• Bertrand Traore — £2.5m

• Reinildo Mandava — Free

• Arthur Masuaku — Free

• Lutsharel Geertruida — Loan

In the very early days of the transfer window when Sunderland were making their first moves, I — among some others at The Transfer Flow — felt that they were perhaps being "irresponsible" and "going too big". Our logic was that the Black Cats were favourites to get relegated having finished some way off the leaders in the Championship, so they ought to have used this opportunity to consolidate and focus more on preparing to bounce back from a likely relegation. In the end, I feel they have not only done that, but also given themselves a fighting chance in the Premier League.

Each of Sunderland's top five most expensive signings were made in this window and all but one of those fees was spent on players aged 23 or younger, with the exception being Enzo Le Fée's obligation. Record signing Habib Diarra will definitely be one to watch, while Simon Adingra came at a pretty good price for someone with Premier League experience. Brian Brobbey joins after a poor season with just four league goals in 30 appearances for Ajax but should not be out of his depth physically at least, fellow Dutchman Robin Roefs is already showing his quality at the other end of the pitch in goal, and former Belgian Pro League youngsters Chemsdine Talbi and Noah Sadiki are exciting talents.

In addition to all these youngsters, Sunderland also signed a few more experienced figures. Most notable among them is Granit Xhaka, who left Bayer Leverkusen for under £20m. The likes of Omar Alderete, Nordi Mukiele and Lutsharel Geertruida should help strengthen the defence, while Reinildo Mandava, Arthur Masuaku and Bertrand Traoré bring in a lot of experience, at least. — NS

Kim: C+ | Ted: B | Moe: B | Neel: A- | Hayden: B+

Total outgoings — £51m

• Jobe Bellingham — £32m

• Tom Watson — £11m

• Pierre Ekwah — £6m

• Nectarios Triantis — £2.2m

You never want to be a promoted club that's busy selling players, so Sunderland should be happy to hold on to most key contributors from last season. The most noteworthy exception is Jobe Bellingham, but north of £30m is a good sale. Promotion playoff hero Tom Watson also brought in an eight-digit sum as he moved to Brighton. I have liked what I have seen of Pierre Ekwah so I'd have wanted a higher fee for him, but you can't really ask for more than £6m when selling to a Ligue 2 club. — NS

Kim: B- | Ted: B | Moe: C+ Neel: B- | Hayden: B

Sunderland have done quite a good job this summer for my money's worth. They did end up paying the Premier League premium in a good few places and perhaps made one or two signings too many, but there are no glaring missteps. What remains now is the small matter of putting it all together on the pitch. — NS

Overall grade: B

Tottenham Hotspur — Barely got away with it

Total incomings — £185m

• Mohammed Kudus — £55m

• Xavi Simons — £52m

• Mathys Tel — £30m

• Kevin Danso — £21m

• Luka Vuskovic (loaned out) — £12m

• Kota Takai — £5m

• Joao Palhinha — Loan, option to buy

• Randal Kolo Muani — Loan

This was looking like it was going to be an utter disaster of a window for Tottenham. And then, at the last minute, they got Xavi Simons in the door. He’s a better player than the ones they tried for and whiffed on, and younger, and cost less money. A miracle.

I’m not particularly high on the Kudus transfer, and think he will end up being a huge waste of money. He has some excellent technical and dribbling skills, but does not translate them into shots and key passes very often at all. Tel is a lottery ticket, and probably too expensive for one Thomas Frank doesn’t seem to rate. Takai is a steal at £5m, and even if he never makes an impact at Spurs he’s likely to get flipped for a profit. Same for Vuskovic.

The Palhinha and Kolo Muani loans are a decent way to paper over some cracks while the front office goes through a big transition and the new CEO gets his own people in. — KM

Kim: B- | Ted: B+ | Moe: B- | Neel: B+ | Hayden: A-

Total outgoings — £47m

• Son Heung-Min — £20m

• Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg — £17m

• Bryan Gil — £8.6m

• Josh Keeley — £1m

• 3 players released

• 6 senior players loaned

Getting £20m for an aging Son is kind of nuts, though I don’t think LAFC are regretting their purchase at the moment. He’s been the best player in MLS since he’s arrived and is getting them national press outside of the sports world. Guy’s actually a cultural icon, I’m so happy for my large adult Son.

The big L for Tottenham is who they weren’t able to sell. Failing to get fees for either of Yves Bissouma or Manor Solomon when they were clearly up for sale is a pretty big miss. The time might have been right to sell out of Rodrigo Bentancur as well. — KM

Kim: C | Ted: C | Moe: C+ Neel: B+ | Hayden: B-

So much went wrong, but between getting a big fee for a declining player with 1 year on their contract and bringing in Simons, it’s hard to get too upset about it. — KM

Overall grade: B-

West Ham — Blah

Total incomings — £136m

• Mateus Fernandes — £38m + £4m add-ons

• Jean-Clair Todibo — £32.8m

• El Hadji Malick Diouf — £19m + £4.5m add-ons

• Mads Hermansen — £20m

• Soungoutou Magassa — £13.7m + £3.6m add-ons

• Kyle Walker-Peters — Free

• Callum Wilson — Free

• Igor Julio — Loan

This summer was a continuation in moving towards possession-based football. Hermansen has shown to be comfortable on the ball compared to other goalkeepers during his time with Leicester. Todibo’s ceiling is that of a top notch progressor at center-back, and perhaps he’ll get closer to realizing such potential in his second Premier League season. Diouf has already shown considerable dynamism on the left side, and could end up being one of the better signings of the summer. Magassa has the building blocks to be a high-end destroyer out of possession who can also contribute in-possession, but he’s likely to slowly be given starts since he didn’t play a ton with Monaco and is only 21. Walker-Peters and Wilson could end up being helpful contributors, which is nice to get on free transfers.

Perhaps the most contentious transfer of the bunch was the acquisition of Mateus Fernandes. He certainly had bright moments with Southampton last season, having to play a variety of roles. The worry is it’s hard to peg down a specific archetype for him and he ends up being a tweener, which would be costly given what West Ham paid. More than anything, it’s an example of the PL premium at work whereas acquiring him initially from Sporting CP (which Southampton did) would’ve been much more cost-effective. — MM

Kim: C | Ted: C- | Moe: B- | Neel: C- | Hayden: C

Total outgoings — £77m

• Mohammed Kudus — £55m

• Nayef Agured — £19.9m

• Emerson Palmieri — £600k

• 7 senior players released

• 2 senior players loaned

Mohammed Kudus’ departure to Tottenham was the headline loss for West Ham over the summer. His two seasons were filled with highs and lows, but he’s undoubtedly one of the world’s best dribblers and getting the money they did for him was fine business. Aguerd’s tenure was considerably less fruitful in comparison, and he signed with Marseille for substantially less than they originally paid to acquire him. Alvarez not being in Potter’s plans led to his loan with Fenerbahce, which is a tough look given how much they spent on him two years ago. — MM

Kim: B | Ted: B | Moe: C+ Neel: C | Hayden: C

Even with my qualms concerning the Fernandes transfer, this summer was a step up compared to previous years. The players brought in largely make sense in terms of skillset and age profile for what Graham Potter and West Ham as a whole are trying to move towards. In addition, the outgoings were alright. It is fair to wonder whether or not this squad and manager can get close to the heights seen domestically under David Moyes, especially with the PL meta moving more and more towards transition-ball. West Ham fans can take solace in the improvements with their talent identification, despite the tough start to the season. — MM

Overall grade: C

Wolves — Weird, maybe good?

Total incomings — £112m

• Tolu Arokodare — £24m

• Jorgen Strand Larsen — £23m

• Fer Lopez — £19.5m

• Jhon Arias — £14.7m + £4.3m add-ons

• Jackson Tchatchoua — £10.5m

• David Moller Wolfe — £10m

• Ladislav Krejci — Loan, option to buy

I have quite the strong disagreement with my colleagues on Wolves’ business. I think Tolu Arokodare is a top quality signing, and I can’t believe bigger clubs weren’t interested. With him and Strand Larsen, I think Wolves now have a pair of center forwards that they can get £50m for in future years, doubling their money. And those guys might score enough goals to keep them up in the meantime.

I also like the bet on Fer Lopez, who had some excellent numbers in limited minutes in La Liga last season. There aren’t a lot of young guys with his combination of passing, dribbling and shooting output at his price point. I don’t think they’re going to lose money on this.

The fullbacks they signed… yeah, I’ll concede that I wouldn’t have done that. Tchatchoua and Wolfe don’t look very good. — KM

Kim: B | Ted: C- | Moe: C | Neel: C | Hayden: D

Total outgoings — £125m

• Matheus Cunha — £62.5m

• Rayan Ait Nouri — £31m + £5.3m add-ons

• Fabio Silva — £19.4m + £3.4m add-ons

• Goncalo Guedes — £3.5m

• 8 players released or sold for nominal fee

• 7 players loaned

All 3 of the top sales here are awesome. I’d have valued all of them at roughly 25% less than those fees based on their production. — KM

Kim: A | Ted: A- | Moe: B+ Neel: A- | Hayden: B+

I’m not sure if Wolves did enough to replace the output they lost at wing/10 and wingback to stay in the Premier League, but I do like their business from a pure value for money perspective. — KM

Overall grade: B

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