Transfer grades: Arsenal in win now mode

Hello, and welcome to The Transfer Flow’s summer transfer grades. We’re going to cover every team in the Premier League this week, with grades coming out in batches of 5. This series is going in roughly alphabetical order, with some very minor adjustments so the big teams are spread out. Today you’re getting:

• Arsenal

• Aston Villa

• Bournemouth

• Brentford

• Brighton

Some notes: We tried our best to find accurate info on add-ons and separate them out from guaranteed fees, but there isn’t detailed and accurate reporting on every transfer. To avoid guessing on how easy or hard everyone’s add-ons are to achieve, they’re added in full to the total number. Loan fees are also included in the totals.

Loan obligations or options to buy are not included in fees. We’ll include them in the window they’re executed, since that’s what matters for PSR purposes. We converted everything to GBP to keep it simple and add up all the fees, and exchange rates vary day to day.

Also, we’re back to looking at European football over on Variance Betting. We have a lot of explanation of why we’re avoiding what we’re avoiding in Champions League. English Championship bets kick off this weekend, and Premier League the week after that.

OK, let’s talk EPL transfers.

Arsenal — Huge money, but well spent

Total incomings — £275.5m

• Martin Zubimendi — £55.8m

• Eberechi Eze — £60m + £7.5m add-ons

• Victor Gyökeres — £55m + £8.7m add-ons

• Noni Madueke — £48.5m + £3.5m add-ons

• Cristhian Mosquera — £13m + £3.5m add-ons

• Christian Norgaard — £10m + £5m add-ons

• Kepa Arrizabalaga — £5m

• Piero Hincapie — Loan with conditional buy obligation

This was a team with needs and they had a good window. Zubimendi was a huge necessity and he immediately looks perfect in that midfield. Arsenal also needed a Saka backup/substitute, and Madueke was a jolt of young electricity - Premier League proven! — picked up for slightly below market value.

Mosquera and Hincapie are value adds, and give Arsenal flexibility going into future transfer windows around their centrebacks. I particularly liked the price on Mosquera. Meanwhile, Norgaard and Kepa were good veteran pickups in positions that needed depth. That’s just smart business.

That brings us to the risks in Gyokeres and Eze. Both are older than you want versus the prices Arsenal paid. Eze adds dangerous ball progression to that left inside channel, and while not much of a risk, Arsenal paid full price for a player who may age out of the performance he need before his contract ends.

Gyokeres is different… he has both age concerns and adaptability concerns. But he also represented Arsenal’s second biggest position of need (after Zubi), and they had to do something while avoiding the pitfalls and prices attached to the Seskos and Woltemades of the world. I don’t like that deal, but I don’t hate it due to the context.

This is a team that clearly felt like they were in a win now window and went for it. Given the circumstances… job well done. — TK

Kim: A- | Ted: A- | Moe: A- | Neel: A- | Hayden: B+

Total outgoings — £11m

• Nuno Tavares — £6.5m

• Marquinhos — £2.5m

• Albert Sambi Lokonga — £260k

• 4 players released

• 5 senior players loaned

The sales side of thing could have been better. They executed in this area well last summer, but this summer felt a little stuck. At least the ghost of #5 is gone now, and a lot of loanees are out of the club, giving them wage money back into the pool. — TK

He could become very useful if the injuries pile up, but not selling Leandro Trossard before his sale value inevitably goes to zero is a miss. — KM

Kim: C | Ted: C | Moe: C+ | Neel: C | Hayden: B-

Overall, a very good window for Arsenal. I suspect Gyökeres and Eze will be looked at as overpays in the future, but they’re good players who help the Gunners get closer to title contention. They’re in a win now window, and some win now signings were appropriate. — KM

Overall grade: B+

Aston Villa — Not much to say about that

Total incomings — £35m

• Evann Guessand — £23.5m + £4.5m add-ons

• Marco Bizot — £3m

• Victor Lindelof — Free

• Harvey Elliott — £7m loan fee + obligation to buy

• Jadon Sancho — Loan

A team heavily handicapped by PSR got some reinforcements in at the very end, but this was not a pretty window for Villa. I do really like the Harvey Elliott signing, his versatility is a great addition. Guessand had solid all-around attacking numbers in France last year.

But this team is currently thin and lacking in firepower if their first choice lineup is not available. I’m inclined to give them a little credit for deciding to go on a transfer diet instead of descending into player trading madness, but I also can’t call this window good. — KM

Kim: C | Ted: C- | Moe: C | Neel: C- | Hayden: D

Total outgoings — £55m

• Jacob Ramsey — £39m + £4m add-ons

• Kaine Kesler-Hayden — £3.5m

• 6 players released

• 6 senior players loaned

Got a solid fee for Ramsey, who is a very talented dribbler but doesn’t do a lot outside of that. Really missed out on a potential Emi Martinez sale, they probably thought that was going to solve all of their PSR problems.

It was probably the summer to sell Ollie Watkins too, if they ever did have big offers as rumoured. Holding onto your best players is nice, but this is a season where they’re not looking favored to finish in a European place, and now they’re going to get a lot less next summer. — KM

Kim: C+ | Ted: C | Moe: C | Neel: C | Hayden: D

Blah. — KM

Overall grade: C

Bournemouth — Building a war chest

Total incomings — £137m

• Bafode Diakite — £30.3m + £4.3m add-ons

• Djordje Petrovic — £25m

• Ben Doak — £20m + £5m add-ons

• Amine Adli — £25m

• Veljko Milosavljevic — £13m

• Adrien Truffert — £8.4m + £3m add-ons

• Callam McKenna — £1m + £700k add-ons

• Alex Jimenez — £1.7m loan fee, obligation to buy

I have to wonder if Bournemouth have hired my long lost twin as a recruitment analyst. These are pretty much all players that would have made my shortlist at a Bournemouth-level club and budget.

Diakite isn’t an aerial monster, but had a good aerial win% and was a plus defender for Lille. Petrovic had excellent shot-stopping numbers. Doak lit up the Championship as a teenager. Truffert is outplaying the man he replaced so far.

If I had to offer some criticisms, I have a couple mild ones. They’re probably short a senior center back. Milosavljevic looks like a huge talent and worth the gamble at his price point to me, but I also think it’s going to take him a season or two to settle in to Premier League football. I also think Adli was an overpay given his limited minutes last season. But those are mild criticisms, this is a great list of incomings. — KM

Kim: A- | Ted: B+ | Moe: B | Neel: A- | Hayden: A-

Total outgoings — £210m

• Ilya Zabarnyi — £54.5m + £2.3m add-ons

• Dean Huijsen — £50m

• Milos Kerkez — £40m

• Dango Ouattara — £37m + £5.5m add-ons

• Jaidon Anthony — £8m

• Philip Billing — £5m

• Mark Travers — £4m

• Chris Mepham — £1m

• Joe Rothwell — £400k

• Neto — Free

• 6 senior players loaned

No one wants to lose their best players, and certainly no one wants to lose ¾ of their back line in one summer, but Bournemouth have done well to absolutely maximize the fees. They’ve doubled their money on Zabarnyi and Ouattara, tripled on Kerkez, and quadrupled on Huijsen. — KM

Kim: A | Ted: A+ | Moe: B | Neel: A- | Hayden: A-

Bournemouth have done something smart and made a correct assessment of where they were at this point in time. They could have sold 3 more key players and not been under threat of relegation. But if they’d kept all the players they sold for big fees, they still wouldn’t have quite been European favorites. Once the vultures started circling, they made the quick and correct decision to maximize value.

Now the Cherries have zero PSR concerns and plenty of money to spend next summer. They’ve got an entire year to plan how they’re going to use it. And they should still be pretty fun to watch in the meantime. — KM

Overall grade: A-

Brentford — Some classic Brentfording

Total incomings — £99m

• Dango Ouattara — £37m + £5.5m add-ons

• Antoni Milambo — £16m + £4.25m add-ons

• Michael Kayode — £15m

• Caoimhin Kelleher — £12.5m + £5.5m add-ons

• Romelle Donovan — £3m

• Jordan Henderson — Free

• Reiss Nelson — Loan, option to buy

This was a good window. Was it a great window? Hard to tell. I liked the Ouattara and Kelleher signings a lot. Kayode had already been there half a season, and seems to be in the right place at a very young age, so he’s a positive too.

The others are either a bit of a reach (Milambo) or really tough to suss out how they will go (Donovan, Reiss Nelson). Adding Jordan Henderson for two years of leadership and the occasional long-range pass into space seems good-to-fine as well.

It’s a window I can appreciate, even if I’m not as yet amazed by it. — TK

Kim: B | Ted: B+ | Moe: B- | Neel: B+ | Hayden: A-

Total outgoings — £152m

• Bryan Mbeumo — £65m + £6m add-ons

• Yoane Wissa — £50m + £5m add-ons

• Christian Norgaard — £10m + £5m add-ons

• Mark Flekken — £9m + £2.5m add-ons

• 4 players released

• 3 senior players loaned

Brentford, Brighton, and Liverpool have been the three best-selling teams I can remember in the last decade+. When the Bees don’t want to sell someone, they either don’t sell or the buying team pays full price (Wissa). And even when they do want to sell (like with Mbuemo), the buying team often seems to pay full price or beyond.

Sales had been quiet over recent years as the Bees consolidated their position in the Premier League. It was therefore nice to see the old magic hadn’t been forgotten. —TK

Kim: A+ | Ted: A+ | Moe: A+ | Neel: A | Hayden: A+

Pretty much the same deal as Bournemouth, if less extreme. They sold some mid-to-late 20s forwards at the peak of their value instead of giving them new contracts that extend into their 30s, they look like they’ll stay up comfortably, and they have some money banked to make some more ambitious signings next summer. — KM

Overall grade: A

Brighton — Some classic Brightoning

Total incomings — £75m

• Charalampos Kostoulas — £29.8m + £1.6m add-ons

• Maxim De Cuyper — £17.3m + £4.3m add-ons

• Tom Watson — £10m

• Diego Coppola — £9.2m + £900k add-ons

• Yoon Do-young — £2m

• Olivier Boscagli — Free

I’m a big fan of Kostoulas. It’s a ton of money for an 18-year-old with one good season in Greece, but he’s a very fun attacking talent who’s great in the air and has a varied skillset. He’s mostly played as a 10, but I could see him evolving into either a striker or an 8 role, and it’ll be interesting to see what Brighton do with him. Coppola, similarly, is a teenage project player with big time aerial ability.

De Cuyper had very good numbers in Belgium and should be a solid left back for them. Boscagli put up silly numbers at PSV along with everyone else in that team, which I’d be skeptical about paying money for, but he arrives on a free.

Watson has some excellent dribbling numbers, but is a heck of a gamble at £10m after not playing a ton of minutes in the Championship last season, and not assisting many shots either.

I don’t think Brighton got much better or worse here. They’re counting on internal improvement to drive them forward this season and bought for the future. Despite poor early season results, I think it was the right strategy. — KM

Kim: B | Ted: B | Moe: B- | Neel: B+ | Hayden: B

Total outgoings — £147m

• Joao Pedro — £55m + £5m add-ons

• Simon Adingra — £18m + £2.5m add-ons

• Pervis Estupinan — £15m + £2.1m add-ons

• Valentin Barco — £8.5m + £4.3m add-ons

• Julio Enciso — £12.8m + £4.3m add-ons

• Tariq Lamptey — £5.1m + £1.3m add-ons

• Abdallah Sima — £3.8m

• Kjell Scherpen — £1.7m

• Odeluga Offiah — £1.4m

• 12 senior players loaned

The kings of player trading have done it again. Besides the big Pedro sale, which I think was an overpay from Chelsea, they did well on the other ones too. They weren’t huge wins, but they’re all small profits relative to what Brighton paid. The big sales Brighton makes are impressive, but it’s equally impressive how often they’re able to buy for £1, sell for £1.50. — KM

Kim: A- | Ted: A | Moe: A- | Neel: A- | Hayden: A

It was a Brighton window. They Brightoned the heck out of it. — KM

Overall grade: B+

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