Paris Saint-Germain are primed to explode

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Paris Saint-Germain returned to the summit of the Ligue 1 standings on Sunday night with a 5-0 win over Olympique Marseille — the biggest margin of victory in the 112-match history of Le Classique. While the reaction it triggers in the south remains to be seen, it certainly was an emphatic statement of intent from the capital club.

After completing the continental treble at the end of the 2024/25 campaign (and going on to reach the final of the inaugural expanded FIFA Club World Cup), PSG didn’t quite manage to keep up the momentum in the first half of 2025/26. They’ve spent close to half the Ligue 1 season so far trailing to a surprisingly competitive Lens side in the standings, have been eliminated from the Coupe de France at the hands of near-neighbours Paris FC, and could not make it into the top eight of the UEFA Champions League league phase.

In truth, there hardly can be much doubt about their ability to defend the French title. The only reason there even appears to be a title race at the moment is because they’ve heavily rotated the XI for many league games around Champions League weeks, but at the end of the day, there can be no opposition to the fact that PSG are by far the most team in Ligue 1. Indeed, Opta Analyst are giving them a 95% chance of finishing first despite there only being a two-point margin currently.

However, there was more chatter on the European stage as Luis Enrique’s side only won one of their last five Champions League matches and failed to earn a direct ticket to the Round of 16. They suffered 2-1 losses to both Bayern Munich and Sporting CP, while Athletic Club and Newcastle United held them to draws. That said, there definitely was an element of misfortune in those results as PSG were clearly the better team in most games, and rank as high as 4th in Opta’s expected table.

Either way, the Parisian side’s season so far has followed a somewhat similar trend to last year. They were miles clear at the top of Ligue 1 for almost all of 2024/25, but had a much tougher time in Europe as they only picked up four points from their first five Champions League games and finished 15th in the standings. The rest is history — they got the better of Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal before thrashing Inter in the final to lift the coveted trophy for the very first time.

The arrival of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and a subsequent attacking reshuffle proved to be the catalyst for PSG’s turnaround this time last year, so the big question is whether they can similarly explode in the second half of this season. Though there has not been any similar major January transfer, we can try to answer that by looking at their season so far.

Looking at the raw numbers, it is clear that Paris Saint-Germain’s attack has been the root of their minor struggles. Their defensive numbers have improved in the league to go well under a goal conceded per game, but they’ve also dropped their scoring from 2.71 per 90 to 2.29. Moreover, they drew blanks in all three domestic defeats.

The underlying numbers clearly back this observation up. PSG’s xG per match average has also gone down, but the bigger and more concerning difference is in the average quality of their chances created. They also haven’t been nearly as clinical on the counter, but one encouraging improvement is their effectiveness from set-pieces. The league leaders also top the standings in terms of xG created from such situation and are the joint top-scorers (alongside Lens) with nine goals.

There is a very simple explanation behind these seemingly concerning declines: injuries. Luis Enrique’s side have been depleted in different departments at various points this terms, but the attack has been the worst hit as Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé has been out for the most part and Désiré Doué has also suffered a couple of noteworthy issues. Midfielders João Neves and Fabián Ruiz as well as full-backs Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes have missed a fair few matches too, limiting the team’s creative threat.

Due to these absences, PSG have had to tweak some aspects of their attacking play. The biggest impact was felt on the right flank, where their typical dynamics were completed disrupted. Warren Zaïre-Emery has spent much of the season so far playing at right back, but as a midfielder by trade, he is asked to move into midfield alongside Vitinha in possession. The 20-year-old Frenchman has done a pretty good job particularly through his ball progression, but he certainly did not bomb up and down the flank like Hakimi.

As a result, the right winger was required to hold the width, but PSG lack such a profile in their squad. Unsurprisingly, then, that is the position where Luis Enrique has rotated the most, handing out starts to five different players in the league alone. None of them have shown the effectiveness that Doué did last term.

These changes might not have been a big deal on their own, but the added absence of Dembélé at the head of the attack meant that a weakened wing really hurt PSG’s output. Gonçalo Ramos has been the most frequent leader of their line this season, but he offers little beyond sometimes popping up in the box and turning in a cross.

They often also missed the dynamic advances of Nuno Mendes, with Lucas Hernández being a more limited and simplistic back-up. All things considered, it should be easy to see why PSG have not been able to create chances as well as they did last season. In fact, they don’t have a single player in the league’s top seven in terms of xG. Barcola is eighth (and has been quite good all-round), but none of his teammates accompany him in the top 15 even.

These injuries have also impacted the Parisians’ defensive work, even if the raw numbers might not reflect that. The drop-off isn’t nearly as pronounced since they’ve kept consistent centre-back partnerships and added quality depth in defence over the summer, but the radar does reveal minor dips.

The PPDA drop is the most interesting aspect because PSG have visually upped their pressing intensity if anything this season. They have even adopted a fully player-oriented approach at times, especially against teams that build out with a double pivot by shifting into a 3-1-4-2 structure. My guess for why they have done so is that a) Ramos isn’t as intelligent a presser as Dembélé so it’s better to have him jump to a centre back rather than be the conductor for the entire team’s press and b) Zaïre-Emery isn’t best-suited to defend against wingers so he’s better off jumping to the opposition left back.

The risk, of course, is that the good teams can have an easier time of finding a way to play around this press, so I don’t expect it to continue with the return of the first-choice starters.

There has been almost nothing else indicating deeper issues in PSG’s system or that they have been found out in any way, so their relatively bumpy ride so far this season can be safely put down to constant chops and changes in the line-ups. The ever-excellent Vitinha and Zaïre-Emery are their only two players to have featured for more then 15 90s in the league, while as many as 20 have over 500 minutes under their belt.

In the long run, though, this might even be a positive. Luis Enrique has used this opportunity to blood in some youngsters such as Ibrahim Mbaye and Senny Mayulu, who haven’t looked too far out of place at all. The former went on to become the youngest player to play in and win an Africa Cup of Nations final with Senegal, while the latter has made as many as 15 starts in positions ranging from midfielder to striker. The teenager’s chance creation from the right half-space has stood out the most, but he has also shown some nice ball control and carrying through tight spaces.

Partly as a result of their injury issues, PSG have remained among the two youngest teams in Europe’s big five leagues. So, as the likes of Dembélé, Hakimi, Doué and Mendes return, the European champions arguably have a stronger squad than they did this time last year. The stars remain sensational (Dembélé has 11 league goal involvements in 614 minutes of action), while the secondary contributors have also had the opportunity to step up in their absences.

Full back depth may be Luis Enrique’s only slight concern, but certainly as long as his first-choices stay fit, he has good reason to believe his side can win all the competitions they are in. PSG will be serious Champions League contenders not just this season, but for years to come.

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