Rafael Leão really needs a new home

If you’re watching Arsenal vs. Atléti in the Champions League tonight, you should hang out with the podcast boys at the same time. They’re doing a watchalong stream on YouTube where you can chat with the hosts during the game. Hope to see you there!

Hey look, it’s the yearly Rafael Leão rumour. He’s 26 now, so we’re running out of time for him to make The Big Move and get someone to hand him a 5-year contract with a big wage.

This article from the Mail says that all of Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool and Real Madrid are keeping tabs on him. You might be tempted to call that made up, but I don’t doubt for a second that Leão’s agent tells this to journalists all the time.

Milan have been playing a lot of 3-5-2 that actually looks like a zero striker system for much of the year, with their true No. 9s playing like crap and their wing-striker tweeners actually giving them some production. But the new role still hasn’t been kind to Leão, who’s lost most of his dribbling and playmaking output without making up for it with more shots.

This looks pretty similar to the shot chart of Rafael Leão the winger: Lots of cutting in and getting his shot blocked from the left wing.

And one of the big reasons why Milan could be motivated to sell is that one of Leão’s teammates has adapted to the new formation and weird wing-striker role a lot better than he has. If you are not American or a Milan fan, you might think that I’m rage baiting by suggesting that Christian Pulisic is in any way better than Rafael Leão, but the numbers don’t lie.

Between his age and poor fit in their system, I think this might be the year that AC Milan finally drop Leão’s asking price a bit to get a move done. I would not be willing to pay a €60m fee for a player with the above production if I ran one of the biggest clubs in Europe, but his history of being an elite dribbler off the left makes him worth rolling the dice on at a lower price point.

Depending on his wage demands, I think he’ll find interest in the €40-50m range, and Milan should be willing to accept that. His value isn’t going to increase from here.

More transfer rumours

• Arsenal have been the club most closely linked with Julian Alvarez, but apparently Barcelona think they’ll have enough money to make a move this summer. We know Barca are going to have some flexibility this summer with some big wages coming off the books and legit revenue finally allowed to be booked from their new luxury boxes, but I have no idea how much they’re going to spend.

• And speaking of Arsenal striker targets, here’s a funny report that they’re looking into Victor Osimhen. Doing that a year after they should would be weird. Maybe he’s significantly lowered his wage demands?

• In more plausible Arsenal news, they’re linked to Sporting CP left back Maxi Araujo. His numbers have suffered a bit this year with some changes at that club, but he was incredible in the previous campaign.

• Enzo Fernandez leaving Chelsea this summer for a massive fee almost seems inevitable, and Real Madrid is the club linked most often. But actual good reporters claim that Manchester City are seriously interested. He’d make a sick partner for Elliot Anderson.

• Someone’s going to give Wolves a lot of money for Joao Gomes on their way down, and Atlético Madrid are reportedly interested at a £40m price tag. I think he’s a much better player than he’s had the opportunity to show at Wolves, but there’s some pretty significant risk he can’t make the step up.

• Brentford are looking into young Ukrainian striker Matvii Ponomarenko, who will probably cost about £20m. The Ukrainian league isn’t the easiest to evaluate these days, but this guy certainly passes the smell test.

• I don’t think Liverpool will actually pay €60m for Abde Ezzalzouli, but he is a cool player who’s had an incredible breakout season. Check out this longer read from Mohamed on his game and how he’s improved as a player.

• Add another one to the pile of big name players Spurs will sign if they miraculously stay up: Marcus Rashford.

• John Stones has announced he’s leaving Man City on a free this summer, and the rumoured destinations vary from Coventry to Bayern Munich. Personally, I’d love to see him continue to play Champions League football for a team on the continent.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.