It might feel silly to call a match a relegation six-pointer when every team is on zero points, and we don’t know for sure who’s going to be battling the drop. But given the information we do have, it would be surprising if Sunderland and Ipswich weren’t both sweating that possibility come spring.

Of course, everyone said this about Sunderland last season, and turned out to be wrong. The Black Cats shocked everyone by finishing 7th, qualifying for Europe and posting 15 more points than the last relegated side.

They managed to do this despite not being very good.

Sunderland had an xG differential of -0.36 per 90 last season, which was worse than relegated West Ham, and worse than any other team that avoided relegation as well. In 7 of the last 11 seasons, a team with that xG differential or better has been relegated from the Premier League.

Curiously, despite qualifying for Europe and ostensibly needing a much deeper squad to navigate that, Sunderland have been passive in the transfer market. There’s plenty of time left to get some business in, but they start the season having made just one transfer, signing 35-year-old fullback Thomas Meunier on a free transfer. They’re depending a ton on internal improvement, particularly from striker Brian Brobbey, which you can read about in our season preview.

A home game against the Black Cats to open the season is one of the best opportunities to get three points that Ipswich are likely to have all campaign. The Tractor Boys are back into the Premier League again after turning a savvy transfer summer 2024 transfer window into a yo-yo right back up.

They’ve signed a lot of interesting players again — and you can read about all of them here — but the big one to know (literally) is their new goalkeeper Kjell Scherpen. He’s 6’9”, and his shot-stopping numbers last season at USG were absolutely bananas.

I’m really looking forward to Ipswich-Sunderland as a Week 1 matchup to find out if both, one of, or neither of these teams looks likely to avoid the drop. Three points for either of them in this fixture would be enormous. It’s not “just Week 1,” this is one of the best opportunities for either to get what’s likely to be a very limited number of wins this year.

If you haven’t checked them out yet, our Premier League season previews are the best you’re going to find anywhere. Collectively they’re over 40,000 words, with stats and graphics diving deep into what you can expect from all 20 teams this season. We’re also going to update the transfer-related stats after the window closes so you can see what everyone has lost and gained. You can purchase here:

I have watched and read way too much FPL content over the last week, and I don’t even know why. Early season is mostly about vibes. Yes, you should avoid players with a lot of fixtures against the rich teams and put some stock in last year’s numbers, but not a ton. Especially this year, given the extreme volatility, with more than half the teams in the league having changed managers over the last year. Ted isn’t even touching any Premier League futures over on Variance Betting.

So it might be a few weeks until we get into anything you could credibly call analysis on FPL, but I’m still going to talk about a couple of my contrarian picks and why I’m making them. The first once is easy: As discussed above, I think Sunderland are likely to be bad. This is a fairly popular opinion. Given that, I’m surprised to see a couple Sunderland defenders get some love from FPL Mate’s 100 experts poll.

Trai Hume and Dan Ballard rack up DefCon, and Sunderland have a couple of favorable fixtures to start the season, but they still have the problem of playing for a defense that was not actually any good last campaign. They conceded a lot of xG, and gradually more as the season went on. I assume almost all of the FPL managers taking Sunderland players already have a GW3 wildcard baked into their strategy, but I’m still scared of taking Sunderland players, period.

My second big differential seems to be my faith in a huge Cole Palmer bounceback under Xabi Alonso. With Palmer resting up during the World Cup and Chelsea missing Europe, I think he’s much more likely to be fully fit throughout the season. I also think that he’s going to slot nicely into The Wirtz Role in Alonso’s 3-4-3 setup.

Here’s what Palmer did the last season he was healthy, vs. what Wirtz did for Leverkusen under Alonso.

Palmer is also on penalty, free kick and corner duty, which boosts his case considerably. Especially for a Chelsea team that I expect to be significantly improved this season. At publish time, Palmer is only the 14th most selected midfielder in the game. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he puts up more FPL points than Bruno Fernandes this season.

Re: Bruno, I do have him in my team, though I expect some serious regression. United have Hull and Ipswich in the first 2 weeks, so I’m planning on re-assessing after that. Having Bruno and Palmer does mean I left out Erling Haaland, as I’m skeptical about both City’s midfield and Enzo Maresca generally. This doesn’t mean I think Haaland is going to fall off a cliff — I think he’ll still be in the golden boot race in a “bad season” — but at a £15.5m price point you have to be really sure he’s the best player in the game, and I’m not. If Haaland looks great the first two weeks and Bruno isn’t producing, I’ll cut my losses and accept I was incorrect ahead of City vs. Coventry in GW3.

And finally, some resources to share. FPL Mate’s aforementioned 100 experts poll is usually a very good bellwether for how the community is feeling and where the meta is heading. Elevenify’s models are some of the most useful free information out there for helping you make decisions. If you’d like to get really serious, Solio Analytics has incredible tools in their premium subscription (and some good free ones too). And if you’d like an update on the basics that you need to know every week, we recommend subscribing to the LazyFPL newsletter:

The easiest place to find listings for your country is probably LiveSoccerTV.

Marseille vs. Strasbourg — BlueCo’s B team has undergone a massive transformation, selling 5 of its most valuable players and bringing in a slew of new Under-21 talent. You can watch the Chelsea stars of tomorrow, today!

Hull vs. Manchester United — Given all the hype about Hull being the worst Premier League team of all time, it sure would be funny to see them take a point off Man United. But I suspect we’re going to see a beatdown that sets the tone for a difficult scrap for the Tigers to avoid Derby’s record.

Atlético Madrid vs. Villarreal — The first proper La Liga weekend kicks off with a battle between Champions League contenders. Atléti have made some big changes this summer, and new signing Lee Kang-In looked great in his debut.

Roma vs. Fiorentina — You’ll have to wait until Monday for the best match of the Serie A round, but Mohamed’s piece from yesterday has me excited about it.

Our own writers had some great pieces elsewhere this week.

Mohamed Mohamed at ESPN picked his 20 players and managers he thinks will define the Premier League season.

Neel Shelat at The Cutback covered Malawi’s run to the WAFCON final and the stars that should ensure they’re near the top of African football for quite some time.

Nicky Bandini at The Guardian previews the new Serie A season, where there’s just as much managerial turnover at big clubs as there is in the Premier League.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football is very skeptical about Jose Mourinho’s return to Real Madrid.

Ali Tweedale at Opta Analyst breaks down what an extreme risk Savinho’s signing feels like for Tottenham.

Chris Weatherspoon at The Athletic asks if the Premier League’s new SCR rules create a glass ceiling and make it harder for ambitious upstarts to move up the table.

Colin Whelan at Football Heritage dug into the legacy of Danny Blanchflower.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.