This is the first time in the last six seasons that the English Premier League’s collection of employed head coaches and managers has remained unchanged from the start of August all the way to November. In an era of astronomical spending in the division, directors and owners have been getting increasingly trigger-happy with the sack, but have all held their horses so far this year.

As we enter the last international break of the year – which will be followed by a frenzied schedule featuring 10 rounds of league fixtures (not to mention other competitions) in a span of just 45 days – this is the last window for clubs to make a well-timed coaching change before it potentially gets too late. A few sides certainly ought to be considering their options, so some coaches’ positions will be in danger.

Some reporting suggests these managers are already as good as gone, so it wouldn’t be shocking if one of these sackings was confirmed before you even read this newsletter.

The endless source of entertainment that is Manchester United produced a memorable week as they came back from multiple goals down on three occasions, first to arrest a nine-match winless streak against Roma in the Champions League, and then to thrill Old Trafford with a 4-4 draw against Aston Villa.

While these fightbacks might have lifted the mood in the spur of the moment, that United dug themselves into those holes underscores continuing issues with the team. The Red Devils’ current position in the relegation zone is a bit harsh relative to their performances, but there can be no denying that they simply are not a good team right now. They are in the bottom half in terms of xGD with a negative figure, among the bottom four for both goals and xG conceded, and second from bottom in terms of distance covered.

The fact that pretty much everything I wrote four weeks ago about Manchester United’s biggest issues remains relevant sums up their stagnation. Signs of these problems – especially in defence – were popping up last season, so Michael Carrick has had plenty of time to show that he is incapable of turning things around.

As has been widely discussed in recent weeks, the rot at United runs far beyond their head coach. While Carrick and his staff definitely aren’t getting anywhere near as much as they should out of the squad, there is no guarantee that their potential successors will be any better. There are a few decent options out there as Patrick and I discussed over on the podcast recently, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for Manchester United to appropriately take any of those.

Pierre Sage’s appointment at Crystal Palace seemed a smart enough move at the time. He had given a good account of himself amid challenging circumstances at Lyon and then led Lens to the closest thing resembling a title challenge that a French team not named Paris Saint-Germain can hope to put up. Our resident French football follower Moe liked his work in Ligue 1 last season as well, so we certainly were not expecting the Eagles to be at the very bottom of the standings at this stage of the season. On the bright side, the root of the issue isn’t difficult to get to at all.

We regret to report that Pierre Sage cannot coach a defence.

It is worth noting that his Lens significantly outperformed their defensive underlying numbers last season, and that does not appear to have translated well at a Palace side that built all their record-breaking success on the foundations of a solid deep block in recent seasons. They are currently comfortably last both in terms of goals and xG conceded, and have had some real low points such as the five-goal thrashing at the hands of rivals Brighton & Hove Albion last month.

The Eagles have had a few changes in on-pitch personnel between seasons but have also stuck to the 3-4-2-1 shape that yielded such rich rewards under Oliver Glasner, so their struggles can’t be attributed to unfamiliarity in a new tactical setup. Worse yet, there haven’t been any signs of improvement as Palace are yet to keep a league opponent to under 1 xG in any match.

The likes of Sean Dyche and Thomas Frank are already being touted as potential replacements. Both of their respective track records suggest they should be able to do a much better job with this Palace defence, and that alone could be enough to avoid the drop.

Newcastle are the highest-placed team on this list as they currently sit 12th with 12 points – just a couple fewer than the likes of Brentford and Leeds United. Even so, newly-appointed coach Matthias Jaissle is under pressure as his side’s disjointed performances have led to an increasingly dissatisfied atmosphere growing at St James’ Park.

The Toon Army are correct in identifying that their team isn’t doing well on the pitch; their underlying numbers put them right on the cusp of the relegation zone. A huge source of frustration has been their attack, as they rank in the bottom three for xG. Jaissle has tried a fair few different combinations up front, so no attacker bar Harvey Barnes (who has started all 10 on the left wing) has started more than five league games in the same position so far.

The biggest problem, however, lies in midfield. The Magpies did not adequately replace Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimarães with their signings, leaving themselves quite lightweight in the middle of the park. They did bring Nico González in from Manchester City, but his defensive deficiencies have been exposed in want of a sufficiently strong partner. Four different players have been tried alongside him, but each of them either offers too little out of possession or too little with the ball. As a result, Newcastle can be too easy to play right through or look totally disjointed in possession – or sometimes both. That they simultaneously rank 16th for xG conceded and last for progressive passes is a real concern.

One of the things I liked about Jaissle when I talked him up around the time of his appointment was his tactical flexibility, but he has been a bit too stubborn so far. He has stuck with the 4-2-3-1 formation without trying to significantly alter the midfield structure despite these issues. His mistakes include persisting with unsuccessful ideas like Matias Fernandez-Pardo up top and certainly Yoane Wissa behind the striker for too long.

Despite all of these problems, Newcastle are faced with a tough decision. On the one hand, they could be in real relegation trouble if they get any worse, but on the other, Jaissle is a company man (he worked with the PIF at Al-Ahli in Saudi Arabia) and changing coaches so early into what was expected to be a challenging season anyway would not be a good look. Besides, the very makeup of the squad is creating some of the difficulties, so it won’t be easy for a replacement to come in and find quick fixes.

Over on the other side of the Tyne, Sunderland have also had to consider a coaching change early on this season. Despite leading the Black Cats to Europe as a newly-promoted side last term, Régis Le Bris’ position came under scrutiny as his side were at the foot of the table going into the last round of fixtures. A crucial win over Chelsea should go a long way towards alleviating the pressure, so the Frenchman might just be safe for now.

Having consulted our xG trendlines and other mysterious devices, we at The Transfer Flow placed Sunderland among the relegation-battles in our pre-season predictions. Their success last season was built on massive overperformance relative to underlying numbers, and they probably didn’t beef up the squad as much as they should have in preparation for additional continental commitments.

On the flip side, Nottingham Forest certainly haven’t looked like a relegation-worthy side at any point this term. However, they too were in the drop zone last week before a huge 3-1 win over Manchester City lifted the mood at the City Ground. The ever-reliable mid-table coach Oliver Glasner has surely only gone there for the bag, because his volatile personality is almost certain to get him in the bad books of the ever-unreliable Evangelos Marinakis sooner rather than later. He can never be counted out of the sack race as a result, but definitely shouldn’t be in pole position for now.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.