The regression monster emerges from Aston Villa's closet

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The team at the top of the table with negative xG differential finally stopped running hot. Villa have 4 points from their last 4 Premier League games, and are coming off a 1-0 home loss to Everton. They’re still in a Champions League place by quite a few points, but the regression monster has emerged.

This week, they’re facing off against Newcastle, a team heading in the opposite direction. They’ve got 10 points in that same timeframe, and are starting to look like a contender for a Champions League place. The Magpies got off to a slow start due to some transfer drama and injuries, but they’ve settled in nicely,

Despite being separated in the table by 10 points, these teams are basically the exact same quality, give or take a lot of lucky bounces and variable opposing goalkeeper performances. Newcastle’s xGD is actually quite a bit better, at 0.27 p90 to Villa’s -0.03.

It’s funny that they meet at this moment, when the narratives around each team are starting to shift dramatically. I think they’ll end the season on pretty close to the same number of points, regardless of what happens in this one. But if there’s a winner on either side, it’ll feel like a pretty decisive moment in the season. And we all know that feelings are the most important stat in football.

On the podcast, Pat and Hayden got into some big transfer rumours, spending some time digging into Hayden Hackney and Jean-Philippe Mateta.

They got deeper into Spurs’ problems on Patreon, dedicating a whole premium episode to fixing their catastrophic squad construction.

Over on Variance Betting, Ted has 4 bets on the Premier League and 5 on the Championship. We’ve made a killing on fading the top teams in the league when the lines get too big, and this week is no exception. To get explanations of all our Premier League, Championship and Champions League bets and learn how to become a smarter gambler, you can subscribe to Variance Betting here.

The FPL Corner

With Bruno Fernandes back from injury and looking sharp against Manchester City, he’s gaining popularity among FPL players again. Solio suggested that I add him to my team this week, even though Man United are away to Arsenal.

I’m going to wait a week because of the fixture, but I do think I’ll be adding Bruno next week, assuming he stays fit. He’s been one of the most productive midfielders in the Premier League this season.

And his assists from set pieces have been outstanding.

While this week is rough for the fantasy prospects of United players, their fixtures get extremely favorable after this week, all the way to the rest of the season. Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha have dropped out of the FPL meta, but I’d consider taking a hard look at both going forward. United’s hard fixtures for the 2nd run through were very front-loaded. You might also want to look into adding a Chelsea player to your team for the next 4 gameweeks.

As always, we can only get to one big FPL topic per week on this newsletter. If you want to keep up with all of the injury and press conference news, the easiest way to do that is subscribing to Lazy FPL. They round up everything you need to know every week.

Games we’re watching

The easiest place to find listings for your country is probably LiveSoccerTV.

St. Pauli vs. Hamburg — Perhaps not a great football game, but a proper derby nonetheless.

Villarreal vs. Real Madrid — Because everyone loves a slow-motion car crash.

Marseille vs. Lens — If you missed it, check out Moe’s piece on Lens’ title push from Thursday.

Arsenal vs. Manchester United — The two best teams in the league??? I feel like I need to spam more question marks???

Roma vs. Milan — A couple of marquee matches in Serie A this Sunday, but if you can only pick one, I think this has the higher chance of high drama and banger goals.

Stuff we’re reading

Mark Carey at The Athletic investigates why players are more likely to get injured after a change in manager.

Ryan Benson at Opta Analyst asks how much time is being lost to stoppages and why IFAB is trying to speed up football.

Jeff Kassouf at ESPN analyzes what Trinity Rodman’s record contract means for NWSL.

Rachel Cohen at The Cutback looks into what Spurs women got right with their January signings.

Mustapha Hassan at TFA digs into what makes Cesc Fabregas’ tactics great at Como.

Grace Robertson at Grace On Football argues that Mikel Arteta is the best British manager of his generation. It’s not a troll!

Jake Entwistle at Scouted uses Skillcorner data to look into how Championship teams scout Asia for perfect fits at bargain prices.

Nick Ames at The Guardian asks if World Cup teams and fans boycotting the competition over political differences is quickly becoming a real possibility.

If you enjoyed this newsletter, we’d appreciate it if you would forward it to a friend. If you’re that friend, welcome! You can subscribe to The Transfer Flow here. We also have a podcast where we go in depth on transfer news and rumours every week. We’re on YouTube here, and you can subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify by searching for “The Transfer Flow Podcast.” If you’re interested in football betting, check out this post on why we started Variance Betting.