Was hiring Michael Carrick permanently the right choice?

Manchester United were in an awkward position when Michael Carrick took over as interim head coach from the departing Ruben Amorim. They were within striking distance of a Champions League spot in 6th once the calendar turned to 2026, three points behind 4th. Considering how bad things were last season and even in the beginning stretch of the 2025-26 season (highlighted by their loss vs Grimsby Town in the EFL Cup), it was a notable improvement and not the kind of situation which normally gets a coach fired.

Yet, how they got to that point remains fascinating. The early weeks of the season saw continued worries with how the squad was trying to play under Amorim, before switching to a different framework which placed more emphasis on physicality and rugged play. United looked to take advantage of 2nd ball regains from going long, and trying to create fast attacks more often. Without the ball, there was more conviction in the man to man press to help win the ball back quickly.

In some ways, United were pulling off their version of how Bournemouth have performed under Andoni Iraola. It was a helter skelter framework with a ton of possession changes, and trying to thrive within those chaotic moments. This brought them some success over the fall, including a three match winning streak in October with back to back victories over Liverpool and Brighton. While there was some hot finishing which fuelled the win vs Brighton, it wasn’t hard to see the idea behind this version of United.

The downside was that against lesser talented sides, United would have to show they had the ability to take the initiative and consistently create quality chances. There were some lackluster performances in matches where they had greater than 50% possession, highlighted by their loss vs Everton in late November despite playing nearly the whole match with a man advantage. United showed a lack of ideas in trying to break down a stubborn low block, leading to a lot of low quality shots. The disjointed performances continued, and Amorim ended up losing his job after a chaotic press conference following a draw vs Leeds United.

There was palpable excitement in the beginning weeks of Carrick’s reign, and not just from the Manchester United fanbase. The performances vs Manchester City and Arsenal were noteworthy, with United playing through the middle at speed and embracing risk with their in-possession play, even if it came with some downside out of possession. It was a stark contrast to the risk averse sides we’ve seen in Europe over the past few years. The attempts at baiting opponents into pressing them, and quickly playing through it, were complemented with smartly timed off-ball movement. There’s also been some inspired fluidity among the front four through positional rotations. One way of showing the difference between the two coaches is through average goalkeeper pass length. Through 20 matches, United had the 6th longest in the league. Since the change in the dugout, it’s dropped to the middle of the pack.

As more matches have gone by under Carrick, teams have gotten better at snuffing out those artificial transitions. It's also become clear that with the ball, the current iteration of United has not yet resembled what was seen when he led Middlesbrough in the Championship. Those sides dominated possession and played at a slower tempo. They were a lot more methodical during buildup, at times playing too slow and drawing the ire of the Middlesbrough fanbase. In comparison, United have constantly tried to manufacture fast attacks whenever possible. 

What has been consistent from Carrick’s time with Middlesbrough to this current run as United manager has been the absence of an aggressive press. In the championship, it was a lot more of a zonal mid-block and there were stretches of passivity out of possession. While the early matches with United showed some promise by utilizing a 4-4-2 diamond when trying to press high, those moments have become fewer and fewer. Via Statsbomb, United had the fifth lowest passes per defensive action (PPDA) under Amorim and the 9th highest defensive distance. In the 16 matches with Carrick? Their PPDA is 5th highest, and 2nd lowest defensive distance. There’ve been matches where the press has been comfortably played through, leading to some nervy moments. With that said, the move to a lesser intensive defensive style has led to solid results in the aggregate.

The end result has been a weird season in which United has swung between two tactical frameworks that have felt more like placeholders than what the best version would amount to. The iteration under Amorim was higher tempo out of possession, compared to the heavy mid-block under Carrick. Interestingly, despite constantly going long more often during buildup with Amorim and trying to attack from winning the 2nd ball, Statsbomb has United’s pace to goal and directness at a higher mark under Carrick. 

On the surface, there’s an easy argument to be made in favor of Carrick getting a shot as United’s permanent head coach. Despite some of the concerns that have popped up, United have won points at a very high level. In the 16 matches he’s been in charge, no team has accumulated more points than their 36. A goal difference of +12 ranks 3rd during that stretch, and they’ve beaten everyone in the top 5. The vibes have been a lot better with him in the dugout, and undoubtedly, it’s a big feather in his cap that Kobbie Mainoo’s career at Old Trafford has been revived.

Yet, there are some concerns with the direction that United’s underlying numbers have gone with Carrick in charge. Both shot difference and non-penalty expected goal difference have been noticeably worse, but they’ve scored goals at a very high rate to help mask the decline. Those 16 matches have seen United convert on just over 13% of their shots, which would be in the top three over the course of an entire season. This isn’t to say that United’s chance quality and volume numbers have been bad, because even with the decline, they’re still above average. However, they don’t profile as a team which could consistently qualify for CL football, let alone mount a title charge. 

I am partial to the idea that this is not how Carrick envisions United will play once the squad is further to his liking, at least with the ball. With more time at the helm, there could be more counters implemented. However, it is fair to wonder that even with a massive squad overhaul in the summer which helps improve the athleticism (particularly in midfield and out wide), would there be an uptick in proactivity out of possession. United will also have to deal with playing European football next season, which could make it harder to improve the pressing.

Perhaps the biggest argument in favor of giving Carrick the permanent role is the lack of high-end coaches out there who’d be a clear upgrade. It’s something I made mention of while writing about the upcoming PL coaching merry-go-round. Luis Enrique is likely staying with Paris Saint-Germain, while trying to sign someone like Julian Nagelsmann could be difficult due to the upcoming World Cup and his current commitments with the German national team. Outside of those two, it becomes harder to see who’d be worth signing in place of Carrick.

Arguably the most exciting candidate currently is Andoni Iraola, who’s finishing off a hugely successful three year run with Bournemouth. We recently wrote about what makes him such an intriguing coach, and how he might become one of the best in the not too distant future. The way United played under Amorim might provide a sneak peak at what an Iraola led side would be at a big club, although the latter has shown more coaching improvement in-possession than perhaps given credit for. If anything, Iraola might need one more stepping stone club to iron things out over the next couple of years before making a big jump.

There's a clear upside and downside case to what might happen going forward with Carrick at the helm. Best case scenario is he ends up being United’s version of Mikel Arteta, the former player who took over during a chaotic period and remodeled the club under his vision while emerging as one of the best coaches in the world. With the power of hindsight, it’s clear those early Arsenal sides were being coached in a manner to where the club would noticeably improve once the talent level of the squad took a jump. I’m not sure you can quite say the same with Carrick’s current run, not to mention the unique circumstances Arteta was dealing with. Worst case? United have ended up making the same mistake here as they did with Ole Gunnar Solskjær by giving the permanent job to a former club legend through a combination of a successful early run of form and sentimentality. What might save Carrick in the months to come is the club’s recruitment should in theory be more sound currently versus a few years ago, helping ensure a decent floor.

United are making a big bet with this coaching selection. They’re hoping the early success can provide enough breathing room for Carrick to create a more sustainable platform, and not just one powered by shooting variance. It’s not a foolish plan, especially if the transfer signings are astute, although your mileage may vary on how feasible it is to execute. If it works out, then United may eventually get close to contending for a league title. If not, then it’s further time wasted on the wrong coach. Can Michael Carrick become the manager Manchester United need? We’ll soon find out.

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