We Nailed Ekitike in May

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We did a whole scouting report on Hugo Ekitike at the end of May, and Kim also singled him out as her top target if she was running Liverpool’s transfer strategy this summer during our Liverpool Rebuild.

In honour of that, and the fact that it looks like the initial fee for Ekitike is £69M (when did Elon get involved?), we’re going to re-run Kim’s analysis up top here, and I’ll add on a few spicy bits from the rumour mill down below.

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So, why is he higher on Liverpool and Chelsea’s list than the more established names at striker? Let’s watch a classic 10 minute YouTube mixtape for fun to get us started.

In part 2 of our Liverpool rebuild series, I singled out Ekitike as the striker I’d have as my top target if I was running their transfer strategy this summer. The big reason was the variety in his game and ability to set up chances for the likes of Mohamed Salah just as much as he gets his own.

Earlier this year, Mohamed Mohamed wrote about Ekitike for us in a piece about three different promising tall strikers. His combination of size and dribbling ability isn’t something you see too often.

For a guy who gets so much praise for his dribbling and passing abilities, you’d think that Ekitike isn’t as much of a shooter as some of the other top strikers expected to make moves this summer. But his xG and shot volume are right up there with the best of the best. And he continued to play in the same fashion, setting up chances for teammates just as often as he created great shooting opportunities for himself, even after the departure of Omar Marmoush.

Do you like red triangles? Boy, do I love red triangles. For the uninitiated, triangles represent shots immediately preceded by through balls in the below shot chart, and they’re the highest value shots. The darker red a shot is on this chart, the higher the xG value. This dude gets some extremely high value shots.

As good as Ekitike has been this season, he’s also been a bit unlucky, underperforming his xG by three goals. I personally don’t think he has any finishing quality issues from having watched him, and clearly Liverpool have come to the exact same conclusion. I also think his quick feet allow him to avoid getting his shots blocked when he’s in tight spaces in the box, something that happens a bit too often to Viktor Gyökeres and Benjamin Šeško for my tastes.

But the big value that Ekitike provides relative to the other big names getting linked to rich teams is his playmaking skills. He’s setting up great shots for teammates. And in case you’re suspicious that he farmed these stats playing next to Marmoush, all 7 of his assists are to different players.

So, what are the downsides? He’s not particularly strong and can get knocked off the ball more easily than the other star strikers he’s being compared to regularly at the moment. He’s surprisingly average in the air for a guy who’s 6’3” and has solid leaping ability. But these are very easy problems to fix compared to, say, having bad touch or passing vision or goal-scoring instincts in the 18 yard box. Liverpool and Chelsea know where to get a heading coach and some protein shakes.

Chelsea and Liverpool are correct to have Ekitike on top of their strikers list. He has the highest ceiling of the strikers these teams are considering, and he’d get the most out of combining with Salah/Cole Palmer. €100m is a number that carries serious sticker shock, and Ekitike might not be worth quite that, but I also don’t think anyone’s going to end up having buyer’s remorse. He’ll be an immediate impact player for either team.

NEWS AND RUMOURS

• On Friday, Kim focused on Mbuemo’s move to Manchester United, concluding he’s a good player, but also that United overpaid by about £20m. This is VERY similar to what we said about the Cunha signing.
  
  I want to make this clear: we are NOT anti-Manchester United. But we ARE very good at our job of pricing transfers, player identification, and finding value across transfer markets from the Champions League down through the English National League.
  
  There are approximately 1000 team personnel from owners through interns subscribed to this newsletter (out of 21k total). If you would like to contract our services, please reply to this email. - TK

• Bild (Bayern Munich’s leak sheet) said Arsenal made a move for João Palhinha but were unable to agree a deal. Given the age, if it DID happen, I have to wonder if it wasn’t some loan with a small potential fee attached to the end. I doubt anyone saves Bayern from that dumb deal from last summer at more than half what they paid for him.

• After the last two summers, I’m kinda convinced that Bayern are the last obvious suckers at the table when it comes to player evaluation and transfer prices. Even Italy is more restrained these days. (Barcelona are nutjobs, but they are cap constrained, soooo yeah.)

• The Gyökeres staring contest continues. I am looking forward to the inevitable briefings in the media when this finally concludes either way. The juicy details are the best bits.

• Nizaar Kinsella of the BBC reported United’s interest in Nico Jackson over the weekend. We flagged it as an obvious, though slightly unlikely target in the podcast, and I’m sure Chelsea would prefer to keep Jackson out of the hands of their CL rivals.

• Jack Grealish realised he can’t live his lifestyle in Saudi Arabia (no alcohol), and is now questing about for English teams that can afford some portion of his wages. These currently include West Ham and Everton.

• L’Equipe says both Sunderland and Bournemouth have bid for Lille’s Bafode Diakite. The French club are asking for about 50% more than has been bid so far (£20m range vs £30m range). Prices for PL teams are so crazy.

• I had thought the James Trafford saga was signed, sealed, and delivered to Newcastle, but that hasn’t happened yet. Burnley know they have a great shotstopper and would like to keep him or extract maximum value in a move. This has allowed Manchester City to step in as a potential destination, should one of their two GKs make a move. The hang-up here beyond price — Fab reports there is a £40m buyback that City are trying to reduce — is that I’m not sure Trafford’s passing is good enough to fit into a Pep team. Seems like we’re going to find out!

—TK

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