What to watch for in the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals

Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich

The headline match on Tuesday night sees record champions Real Madrid take on Bayern Munich, who clearly were one of the competition’s two best teams in the league phase. Indeed, the Bavarians should be considered the favourites in this tie, as the Spaniards have various issues to contend with.

Chief among them is their defence, which has only managed to keep one clean sheet in the last 10 matches — in the first leg of the Round of 16 tie against Manchester City. Xabi Alonso’s out-of-possession demands probably didn't go down too well with some star forwards and ultimately contributed to him losing his job, but it's safe to say that his tactics were more effective on the pitch.

Álvaro Arbeloa’s vibes-based approach has perhaps enabled more of the attackers to operate in their favoured areas, but again, this doesn't necessarily make the team better as a whole. The downside of this approach was epitomised in the weekend’s league defeat to Mallorca, in which starting striker Kylian Mbappé repeatedly scampered down the left wing, but the lack of any significant box presences enabled the relegation-battlers to protect their penalty area comfortably enough for the most part.

Of course, the sheer individual quality in the Real Madrid XI can threaten the best of teams on their day, so Bayern will have to be wary of transitions especially. Vincent Kompany’s side have generally been quite well-balanced this season, and themselves have a formidable front line. In fact, they set a record by becoming the fastest team to reach 100 Bundesliga goals on matchday 28 last weekend.

Bayern definitely should have enough in them to find the back of the net against a subpar Real Madrid defence, though Harry Kane’s injury and potential absence could hold them back somewhat. If they can stay solid after taking a lead, they'll give themselves a great chance of advancing to the semi-finals.

Sporting CP vs. Arsenal

This clearly was the most unbalanced tie when the draw was made, and while that remains the case, Arsenal’s first back-to-back defeats of the season do add some intrigue.

From the Gunners’ perspective, there are clear reasons to not be overly concerned. The EFL Cup final was a close match by all metrics (it ended 10-10 on shots), and all the damage was done in just a five-minute period. The FA Cup defeat to Southampton was a more concerning performance, but produced by a heavily rotated. Gabriel and Benjamin White are the only players from the defensive unit likely to start this game, so Sporting are very unlikely to get as much joy going direct as the Saints did against a stronger set of defenders.

Nevertheless, the Portuguese side may take some encouragement from that game and try their luck. They have a decently effective attack spearheaded by Colombian striker Luis Suárez (whose tally of 33 goals this season includes five in the Champions League), so they should do enough to keep the Arsenal defenders on their toes at least.

Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid

My brothers in podcasting Patrick and Hayden were high on Barcelona after their massive win over Newcastle United in the last round, but they too acknowledged that they'll face a very tough challenge against Atlético Madrid.

I fully agree with them, and my reasoning behind that is simple; Atléti have consistently been the most effective team when it comes to breaching Barcelona’s famously high defensive line under Hansi Flick. Their head-to-head record reflects this quite clearly, as the Blaugrana haven't kept a clean sheet in their league meetings over the last two seasons, while their cup ties have ended 5-4 and 4-3 on aggregate in favour of either side.

Two elements are the key to Atlético’s success: secondary runners who look to go in behind from deeper starting positions, and diagonal runs from wide to inside. Their front four setup perfectly facilitates this as a big striker like Alexander Sørloth can distract the centre-backs, opening up space for someone like Giuliano Simeone to deal the damage. In fact, the Argentine forward scored the opener in the two sides’ league fixture last weekend (between significantly rotated XIs) by following this exact blueprint.

Atlético Madrid’s heavy investment in moving away from their haramball roots under Diego Simeone hasn't quite yielded the results they'd like, but they do have a more well-rounded attack now. If they can balance their forwards’ threat with some of their typical defensive solidity, Barcelona will have a very unpleasant week.

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool

Both Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool can now afford to turn the majority of their attention this season to the Champions League for as long as they remain in the competition, but for different reasons.

The defending champions will certainly be able to go all-out for this tie after working out an agreement to postpone next weekend’s league match against second-placed Lens. Les Sang et Or did them a bigger favour last weekend, though, as their loss to Lille opened the points gap up to seven. Liverpool, meanwhile, aren't involved in the league title race this season and were dumped out of the FA Cup on the weekend with a 4-0 loss to Manchester City. So, as the pressure intensifies on Arne Slot, the Champions League is now the only trophy his side can still fight for.

A lack of solidity in midfield and through the centre was the chief cause of the Reds’ latest defeat, and the trouble is that it doesn't seem easily fixable. While they can definitely do a better job of staying organised in their block, their lack of an out-and-out defensive midfielder profile will limit what they can do to contain the fluid PSG attack.

The Parisians might even look to exploit this further if they replicate what they did last weekend. While Luis Enrique’s side have been operating without a true number nine for over a year, they typically still use someone like Ousmane Dembélé to occupy the last line in the build-up. Against Toulouse, though, both of their central attackers dropped well back, leaving the wingers to stay high and wide. The likes of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola and Desiré Doué could also find some joy against relatively defensively weaker Liverpool full-backs through such an approach.

Regardless of whether PSG roll this out in the first leg or potentially keep it up their sleeve for next weekend, I'm confidently standing by my backing of them from the start of the knockout stage.

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